Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“ I always want to remain open to hearing thoughts coming from people on the other side of the table, Anonymous.”
I think your ex-wife and priest would disagree with that statement.
There’s some truth in that comment but it does not express the complete truth.
I once asked my priest whether he felt that I had committed a sin in making the choices that I had made. He said that someday in the future we would need to sit on the porch and have a long talk examining all the angles of the matter. If I had not listened to the other side at all, I think that that would have been a sin because of the damage that was done to my family. So I think that my priest was signaling that he believed that there was a bit of listening going on on my end.,
There certainly have been times when my ex indicated that she did not believe that I was listening to the other side. But we had a recent conversation in which she expressed the view that she believes that I am “a good soul.” So I think that she too is of two minds re this matter.
It’s hard for people to accept that there could be 41 years of peer-reviewed research showing that market timing is always 100 percent required and that there still could be a ban on honest posting at every large site on the internet. How could something like that happen? It boggles the mind.
I believe that people’s minds will change when they see the human suffering that we will experience in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis (I am presuming here that stocks will continue to perform in the fututre at least somewhat as they have always performed in the past). Then they will be concluding that it is the Buy-and-Holders who have been too closed to hearing the other side of the story.
We’ll see.
Rob
Some people, like your wife and priest, have trouble with confrontation. It is not comfortable. It is easier for us that don’t know you personally to tell you the truth. There is no motivation for us to lie to you. Our sole focus is for all of us to be able to provide for ourselves and our families as well as to secure our retirements. In fact, we would be truly “goons” if we just lied to you and went along with your crazy delusions. We knew that if you followed the path you went on that you would be broke and could potentially suffer from a divorce. We even said so many years ago. Look what happened. None of us take any joy in that. Only a sick person would take delight in your unfortunate outcome.
So here we are today. We cannot offer up any new suggestions that will fix everything. Instead, we can just encourage you to try and at least salvage something at this late stage of the game. We can only continue to encourage you to get a job while you still can. We know this is now hard given that you are in your 60’s and that you have no recent job experience. Just getting SOMETHING is better than nothing.
I of course agree that, if humans were 100 percent rational creatures, it would be your “sole focus” to “be able to provide for ourselves and our families as well as to secure our retirements.” If humans were 100 percent rational creatures, there would be no irrational exuberance. Get Rich Quick strategies would hold no appeal. Buy-and-Hold strategies (price indifferent strategies) would hold no appeal. The reason why the title of my book is “Investing for Humans” is that I believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that human investors are NOT 100 percent rational (that irrational exuberance is a real thing) is legitimate research. If you take investor irrationality (which is evidenced in the CAPE level that applies) into consideration, you obvioulsy get very, very different answers to every strategic question, including the calculation of the safe withdrawal rate.
That’s the entire question on the table. Once we agree as a nation of people to permit discussion of the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research at every discussion board and blog, we will able be able to take advatange of the many, many benefits of Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research and lead richer and fuller and better and freer lives. I vote for opening every site to honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research by the close of business today, if not a good bit sooner.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
“I of course agree that, if humans were 100 percent rational creatures, it would be your “sole focus” to “be able to provide for ourselves and our families as well as to secure our retirements.”
So you are admitting that you are not a rational creature. True, because any rational creature in your situation would be extremely unhappy. You don’t seem to be unhappy. In fact, you seem happier than before, when people were nagging you. Apparently irrationality has its benefits.
I’m obviously not even a tiny bit happy with any of the abusive stuff that I have experienced over the first 20 years of our discussions. But, yes, I am thrilled beyond belief with the hundreds of amazing insights that I have been able to develop as a result of my interactions with my fellow community members (many of whom have expressed a desire that honest posting re the peer-reviewed research be permitted and ENCOURAGED at every site). So I am a mix. We have seen a good bit of very bad stuff over those 20 years. Without question. But the good stuff has been 20 times as good as the bad stuff has been bad. So the future looks bright indeed.
My sincere take.
Rob
It is our goal to provide for ourselves, our families and our retirements. That is what all this is about. Your agenda is much different versus what you say. Your agenda is to find ways to not work and to build yourself up as some kind of expert and/or leader (which you are not).
Okay, Anonymous.
I do wish you all good things, in any event.
Rob
Rob,
You don’t have any amazing insights. You are just rehashing the same talking points. You are pushing a timing scheme and that is it. You have spent 20 years spinning a story on what is really a simple 10 minute conversation. There is nothing complex about it nor does it need any additional conversation. Everything that needs to be said, was said a long time ago.
If you are unclear about anything, then it is on you to answer your own questions. The rest of us are just fine.
I don’t agree, Anonymous. I believe that, if the ban on honest posting re the past 41 yesrs of peer-reviewed research in this field remains in place, we will see another Buy-and-Hold Crisis. I believe that we should be permitting (and encouraging!) honest posting at every site, without a single exception.
I nautrally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow.
Rob
‘ I don’t agree, Anonymous.’
Your empty bank account and divorce papers say otherwise.
Okay.
My best wishes.
Rob
“ I don’t agree”
That’s what your wife said. That’s what your priest said. That is what the entire financial community said.
Not quite, Anonymous. 10 percent of the financial community believes that Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research. If those people all felt comfortable posting honestly at every site on the internet, we could get that 10 percent up to 20 percent. And then to 40 percent. And then to 80 percent.
That’s the way it works. That’s the way it has always worked. That’s the only way it ever could work. New ideas are not accepted by the entire universe on the day they are announced. We have to give ourselves permission to talk about them for the word to spread.
Rob
“ Not quite, Anonymous. 10 percent of the financial community believes that Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research. If those people all felt comfortable posting honestly at every site on the internet, we could get that 10 percent up to 20 percent. And then to 40 percent. And then to 80 percent.”
Not a single person (except for you) believe in YOUR interpretation of what one guy said. Not a single person has said that your posts are honest (truthful), except for you.
http://www.passionsaving.com/investing-discussion-boards.html
Rob
Your link proves my point. There is not one single person saying that they agree with YOUR interpretation of what one guy said. What’s really looks bad for you is that it shows that you haven’t had any real conversations with anyone in the financial community for well over a decade.
And the Greaney retirement study has not been corrected in the TWO DECADES since he was made aware of the error in it (it lacks am adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins).
Please take good care.
Rob