Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
The evidence says otherwise. That is why you are in the position you are today, you did it to yourself.
All of the evidence points to a conclusion that the Greaney study lacks a valuation adjustment. Even Evidence now acknowledges that. And he is the gooniest of goons.
The only evidence that you cite in “support” of the Gteaney study is that people like Scott Burns are not willing to publicly state that it needs to be corrected. You’re right that they have not been willing to do that for 41 years now and you are right that that’s the strangest thing that I have ever seen in my lifetime. My job is to figure out why that is so and to explain it to people when things reach a point (as they will, in the event that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research) at which they are ready to hear an explanation. Why do so many want to shut out what the research says in the field of stock investing when they are perfectly happy to take research findings into consideration in so many other areas?
Scott Burns should have called for the Greaney study and the Trinity study (which he endorsed on numerous occasions) to be corrected. He was initially inclined to go at least part way down that path. He said that he wanted to write an article about my claim that valuation adjustments are required. He got cold feet before the article appeared and it came out a strange mish-mash of confused thoughts. It is not “catasstophically unproductive” to want to get the numbers in retirement studies correct. Correcting numbers that milltions of people are using for important purposes would be considered catastrophically productive in any other field of human endeavor.
I am going to continue to say that the Greaney study lacks a valuation adjustment and that Greaney should have corrected the error within 24 hours of the moment he learned of it. And that Scott Burns should have written the whole thing up when he learned of it. And that there is nothing catastophically unprodutive about it, that we should all be grateful that we have brains that make us capable of rational thought and that we should employ that gift in the investing advice realm in the same way that we employ it in every other realm of human endeavor.
That’s my sincere take re this terribly important matter, Anonymous.
I naturally wish you all good things.
Rob
Your broke. Your the last person to be giving advice. It’s like a fat person lecturing thin people about how to diet.
Your broke. Your the last person to be giving advice. It’s like a fat person lecturing thin people about how to diet.
I am not the only person who believes that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research has value, Anonymous. Thousands of our fellow community members have expressed a desire that honest, research-based posting be permitted. It’s not for you to decide for those people. If stocks continue to perform in the future somewhat as they have always performed in the past, you will be responsible for the losses suffered by all the people who would have made different choices had honest, research-based posting been permitted.
Your attitude shows that you lack confidence in the strategies you promote. I have no problem with Buy-and-Holders participating in the discussions so long as they follow the published rules of various sites and the laws of the United States. I believe that we can always learn something new from people that hold different viewpoints than our own.
Rob
Yes, it is so hard to get in a post with all your thousands of supporters posting here constantly.
Your attitude and depleted bank account shows your lack of confidence in your hocomania.
You could work with me to get every site opened to honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research and you could see hundreds of posts making the case for Valuation-Informed Indexing every day. And there would also be hundreds of posts making the case for Buy-and-Hold every day. So we both would be enjoying huge learning experiences. That’s the approach that gets my vote.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
“work with me to get every site opened to honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research”
Translation: “Let’s involuntarily convert every website on the ‘net, from Etsy, to Twitter, to private blogs, financial sites, advice columns, un-boxing channels, family history portals, and every other resource, to allow a single person to spam it all — unfettered, unmoderated, unchecked, unquestioned, unrebutted, and not held accountable to the truth behind his singularly bizarre fixation on some arcane theory that only he adheres to, or can even comprehend.”
Sure, Rob. That sounds like an awesome plan. Just one teeny tiny little hitch — what about all the *other* whackadoodles out there? The flat-earthers, the conspiracy freaks, the pedophiles, trolls, anarchists, white supremacists, black supremacists, alien supremacists, hackers, crackers, slackers, and whackers?
Why should just one divorced, out of work, failed blogger from Virginia be allowed exclusive control and authority over the entire internet?
Rob, very few people would be willing to research your ‘origin story’ back far enough to see what your roots are, and to observe what would happen on any site that allowed you to not only to post at will, but to moderate others! I have the misfortune to have seen that environment, firsthand! It was among the most appalling situations I’ve ever observed in my decades of using the internet.
You, in charge? Allowed to determine site content, other than at your own little private Hoco-hole? Perish the thought, with a shudder.
You have exactly the reach, and the viewership that you deserve: You are ONLY visited by those mildly curious of whatever became of ol’ Hocus.
I believe that we should be permitting (and encouraging!) honest posting re Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns at every internet site, without a single exception. That’s my sincere take.
My best wishes to you and yours.
Rob