Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
And yet you wonder why all the boards banned you.
It’s not quite true that I “wonder” about that. It’s not the norm. So it surprises me. And I certainly think about it often. But, if you take into consideration how humans behave in other areas of life endeavor, it is not all that terribly difficult to figure out what is going on.
New ideas scare people. People get used to one way of living and they don’t like thinking that they are going to need to adjust to something different. Most of us can handle small changes. But big, fundamental changes can mess with our minds. Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research findings are the biggest advance in our understanding of how stock investing works ever achieved in the history of the planet. They are extrmely positive changes for all of us. But, for those of us who are emotionally invested in the old understanding (Buy-and-Hold), they represent a shocking change. They turn the world on its head.
Many Buy-and-Holders react to the fear they feel when confronted with the possibility that they didn’t always know it all by trying to silence the voices speaking of the new findings. That’s not an acceptable response. Silencing discussion of the realities hurts everyone, including the people doing the silencing. So that’s not the answer. But it is not 100 percent beyond human understanding why Buy-and-Holders respond to Shiller’s research in the way they do.
I like to put a positive spin on things. I think it would be fair to say that in the usual case the amount of resistance to a new idea is a signifier of the power of that idea. In this case, the resistance has been greater than anything that I have ever witnessed. To come up with a comparable, you would have to suggest something like the reaction we saw to the idea that all races should be treated equally in the eyes of the law. That one messed with people’s minds something terribly. That’s what we have here.
People fight and fight and fight and fight. But, in the end, they are going to have to accept that the research says what the research says. You can’t have a society of people in which discussions of what 41 years of peer-reviewed research tells us all about stock investing is banned at every site on the internet. That’s not just a situation that has long-term viability. So we know that as a society, we will be moving forward in time, presumably in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. Given that reality, the charitable thing to do is to do what you can to see that the transition is made as quickly as possible.
The intense resistance to Shiller’s breakthrough research findings is an exceedingly strange thing. But it is also an exceedingtly human thing. Humans have a problem with change. And it is exceedingly positive thing. We will all live better lives when we are able to earn far higher returns on our stock investments while taking on only a fraction of the risk that we were required to take on in the pre-Shiller years.
It’s a shame that we have caused ourselves so much pain with our insane resistance to hearing about the research. But the good news here is 20 times more good than the bad news here is bad. Humans are imperfect creatures. We get scared when something threatens to shake up our understanding of how the world operates, even when the change is a very, very positive change. But, after some struggle with a new idea, we usually eventually work up the courage to embrace a better future. I think that that is what will happen in this case as it has in so many others.
Rob
From the thread that you linked to in this blog post:
>”Point me to a site where Buy-and-Holders and Valuation-Informed Indexers post together on a daily basis in peace. I am not aware of any such site. If there is one, I want to go there and post there and enjoy the learning experiences that I would be able to enjoy there.”
Just the other day I pointed you a site where this can be done, and you said you won’t go until you finish the book that you’ve been working on for decades.
And I said that I will go there after I finish the book.
And there was a comment by Sensible suggesting that 100 percent honesty is not permitted for those who believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research. He had something where he said that people there are saying that a 4 percent withdrawal was 95 percent safe even for retirements that began at the top of the bubble. Huh? That’s not even close to being right. That’s essentially what Greaney said. That’s what we’re trying to get away from. If all that Shiller did was show that the Buy-and-Holders were a tiny bit off in their confidence percentage, he would not have been awarded a Nobel prize for his amazing, “revolutionary” (this word appear in the subtitle of his book) research.
I think that we should be talking about all the revolutionary stuff. That’s the stuff that will permit us all to live better and fuller and richer lives in days to come. That’s the site that I am saying I want to see created and that I want to visit.
My best wishes.
Rob
“ And I said that I will go there after I finish the book.”
Yet you can post here, ValueWalk and Twitter, yet you don’t really want to engage in a discussion where people have the ability to push back on you. That is why you use the book as an excuse.
You Goons push back to an insane degree, Anonymous. I couldn’t possible get more pushback than what I get from you Goons. Threats to murder my loved ones because I pointed out an error in a retirement study? That’s pushback!
Rob
“ It’s not quite true that I “wonder” about that. It’s not the norm. So it surprises me. And I certainly think about it often. But, if you take into consideration how humans behave in other areas of life endeavor, it is not all that terribly difficult to figure out what is going on.”
The boards that know you have banned you for your bad behavior: lying, not answering questions, with that said, 99% of the internet is open to you. You are on Twitter, YouTube. ValueWalk and your own website. You have made millions of posts, yet you aren’t generating any income which tells you people are just not buying what you say. People like Mike Piper Wade Pfau, Sam at the Financial Samurai all post much less than you with a much smaller footprint, but each have a large following and good internet based income. The problem is clearly you.
The problem is that Greaney has not corrected the error in his study. If he had corrected the error, there would be no controversy and there would be no need for any board bannings. The purpose of the board bannings is to keep me from pointing out that the Greaney retirement study lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins.
Rob
There is no error in Greaney’s study and you can still go out and spread your lies on 99% of the internet if you want to keep waste your time like that.
As far as everyone is concerned there was no error. Again, look at reddit. Those people recognize that a 4% withdrawal rate gives you a 95% chance of success. They understand that some years are bad years. The only one who isn’t learning from their mistakes and admitting fault is you, Rob!
There is no error in Greaney’s study and you can still go out and spread your lies on 99% of the internet if you want to keep waste your time like that.
Okay. I sincerely believe that the Greaney study lacks a valuation adjustment and it is my intent to open every discussion board and blog to honest discussion re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research in this field, without a single exception. Does that work for you?
I believe that, once every board and blog has been opened to honest posting, we all will be living better and fuller and richer lives than we ever imagined possible back in the Buy-and-Hold Era. Shiller wasn’t awarded a Nobel prize because he has a nice haircut. His “revolutionary” (that word appears in the subtitle of his book) research findings represent a huge advance in our understanding of this important subject matter.
Rob
As far as everyone is concerned there was no error. Again, look at reddit. Those people recognize that a 4% withdrawal rate gives you a 95% chance of success. They understand that some years are bad years. The only one who isn’t learning from their mistakes and admitting fault is you, Rob!
You cannot speak for everyone, Sensible. You can only speak for yourself. There are thousands of people who have expressed a desire that they be permitted to hear both sides.
http://www.passionsaving.com/investing-discussion-boards.html
Rob
“Both” sides ARE permitted, Rob. This so-called “ban on honest posting” is just a figment of your imagination.
Okay, Sensible.
I do wish you all good things, in any event.
Rob
You REFUSE to post to reddit which is the largest board on the internet.
I said that I intend to check it out afterI have finished my book.
Rob
When will that be?
I’m not going to give any more estimated completion dates, Sensible. It will be done when it is done. It’s 80 percent complete today.
Rob