Valuation-Informed Indexing #637: If Market Timing Works, Then It is Absolutely Critical

I’ve posted Entry #637 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called If Market Timing Works, Then It Is Absolutely Critical.

Juicy Excerpt: Robert Shiller has described the intellectual leap from the finding that short-term price changes are unpredictable (University of Chicago Economics Professor Eugene Fama showed this in research published in the 1960s) to the Buy-and-Hold belief that the market sets prices properly as “one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economics.” I think that’s right. I don’t think that even those who agree with Shiller and me on this point (most stock investors do not agree) fully appreciate how much harm was done by this mistake and how much good would be done by correction of it.