Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“ The entire world agrees with both me and my ex.”
If that were the case, you wouldn’t be broke, banned and divorced.
We’re in a twilight zone in which the world believes two opposite things. Trying to make logical sense of it is like trying to make logical sense of an alcoholic’s choice to continue drinking when all his friends see that it is destroying his life. Addictions do not make sense.
I believe that we will hit bottom in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. Some alcoholics revover and go on to live the best days of their lives.
Rob
There is no twilight zone. Only reality. Your ex-wife grew tired of your stories just like everyone else. Just like the drug addict and the drunk, you won’t listen to anyone else and you don’t think you have a problem.
Today’s CAPE value is 29. That tells us where the problem lies, in my assessment.
If you have not been working to get that CAPE value pulled down to something reasonable, you are part of the problem. We are all in this together. We all should be working together to rein in irrational exuberance when it appears before us.
Rob
The CAPE changes almost every day, yet buy and holders have always been fine, while you have remained broke and divorced.
Were they fine in the years following the CAPE value of 33 that we reached in 1929?
Had we had Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research available to us in that day, we could have all worked together to make sure that the CAPE never rose so high. I thibk that would have been better.
Rob
So the market and how it works is the same, in your mind, as 1929? It doesn’t seem you have much knowledge about his things work. No wonder you are broke.
Yes, I believe that the stock market works the same as every other market that has ever existed. Price discipline is by far the most important thing. From time to time we forget that that’s the case with the stock market because our Get Rich Quick urge causes us to place great value on the creation of trillions of dollars of irrational exuberance. When that happens, we all pay a terrible price.
I believe that we should permit honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research in this field.
Rob