Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“ I think that Evidence is right re the Greaany study. But I’d like to hear Greaney say it. It makes everything more clear. And the more clear people get re all this stuff, the better off we all will be, in my sincere assessment. Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold lives in the dark. Call it out and it shrivels up and dies. No one makles a conscious and thoughtful and well-considered to destroy his hopes to achieve financial freedom as early in life as possible.”
Evidence has answered it, just like everyone else. One more time: IT DOESN’T NEED IT.
Now, why didn’t you get the burger flipping job instead of making your wife get 6 jobs to pay the bills?
Do you believe that Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns is legitimate research?
If not, why not?
Rob
Did Greaney make you quit your job? Did Evidence make you quit your job? Did Greaney make your wife work 6 jobs? Do Evidence make your wife work 6 jobs?
……..maybe Shiller forced you to do all these things…….or maybe in was Wade Pfau……….certainly you can’t be at fault, right?
I did a very good thing when I pointed out the error in the Greaney study (it lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins). There were people at the Motley Fool board who were using that study to plan their retirement.
When I discovered that many investors favor the ban on honest posting (this was on the evening of August 27, 2002, when Greaney advanced his first death threat and over 200 Buy-and-Holders endorses his post), I did a second very thing by making a decision to move on from Buy-and-Hold (I was a Buy-and-Holder myself until I saw the 200 endorsements of Greaney’s death threat), figure out what the heck was going on and develop the first true research-based investment strategy, which over time became Valuation-Informed Indexing (which is Buy-and-Hold with market timing/price discipline added in). A nation of people that invests in stocks to finance its retirements needed access to honest, accurate, research-based reports on hos stock investing works in the real world, there is no getting around it.
I offer no apologies whatsoever.
The happiest days of Wade Pfaus life were the 16 months in which he was working with me and coming up with amazing investing insights on almost a daily basis. He didn’t conclude that “Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!” without first checking things out very, very carefully. Wade will be back helping us all with his amazing research in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis, when every site has been opened to honest posting re the peer-reviewed research. And Shiller will feel free to discuss in great depth the many far-reaching how-to implications of his Nobel-prize-winning research in those days. As powerful as Shiller’s research findings are, I think that it would be fair to say that they have not done us much good when we check the CAPE level and see that it is “29.” Once Shiller feels free to explore the how-to implications of his research in great depth at every site, as we should have encouraged him to begin going 42 years ago, I think it would be fair to say that we will never again see a CAPE value of 29 or the horrible consequences that always follow from such a CAPE value for millions of middle-class investors.
The good news here is 20 times more good than the bad news here is bad.
My sincere take.
Rob
“ The good news here is 20 times more good than the bad news here is bad.”
Would your ex-wife agree with all that?
She wouldn’t agree today.
I believe that my ex-wife and millions of others will agree after every discussion board and blog on the internet has been opened to honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. The shift from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is the biggest advance ever achieved in the field of personal finance. We achieved the advance intellectually in 1981, when Shiller published his Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns. But we will not be able to enjoy the benefits of the advance until as a society we give ourselves permission to discuss the far-reaching how-to implications of the research amongst ourselves. We all carry a Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold urge within us. That’s why there have always been bull markets and bear markets and economic crises following from them. But all of that has become optional today. The key to obtaining all the good stuff is permitting the market to find its proper price. Fot it to do that, the investors that make up the market need access to accurate and honest and research-based reports on how stock investing works in the real world.
My sincere take.
Rob
It has been well over 20 years and nothing came out like you said. If you go another 10 years, which would put you in your 70’s and nothing changes for you, will you finally admit you were wrong?
If I ever see any evidence that I am wrong, I hope that I will have the grace to admit it. It certainly doesn’t seem likely that that is going to happen now that we have Evidence saying in very strong terms that I was right all along.
On the morning of May 13, 2002, I was 90 percent sure. Today, I would say that I am 99.99 percent sure.
I don’t say that I know it all. I learn new things about this stuff almost daily. There is lots more to learn. But I am today 99.99 percent sure that the retirement study posted at John Greaneys web site truly lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day that the retirement begins. I am today more sure of that than I am that the moon is not really made of green cheese.
Rob
I am 99.99 percent sure that my Tesla does not have a microwave oven. Evidence said I am right about my Tesla.
Is there 42 years of peer-reviewed research showing that a Tesla requires a microwave oven to be able to function properly?
Rob
My interpretation of the research is just as valid as your’s
Then both should be discussed openly at every discussion board and blog on the internet, without a single exception. It’s by hearing both sides that we all learn together over time and gradually advance in our understanding of this important subject matter.
My sincere take.
Rob