Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“I have a funny feeling that, if she had participated in all of the discussions that I participated in and she saw how many good and intelligent people would like to see every internet site opened to honest posting, she would be with me 100 percent of the way.”
She was too busy raising two boys and working six different jobs to be participating on discussion boards.
It’s more than that. I wrote an article a few years back called “Buy-and-Hold Is Dangerous.” The idea behind that article was to tell the entire story in`one place. It was essentially an early verion of the book that I am hoping to complete soon. The book just adds more detail and depth. Boo did not read that article. I find that odd. I would think she would be interested enough to spend the 30 minutes or whatever it would take to read it. I don’t believe that she will read the book when it is finished. The story that I am telling affected her life in a big way. So I would intuitively think that she would read it. But I do not believe that she will. She rarely asks me how it is going.
My brother and I have a good relationship. I will be watching the Super Bowl with him. I don’t know the details of his personal financial situation. But I know that he is thinking about retirement in the not-too-distant future and I know that he has a good bit of money in stocks. If there is another Buy-and-Hold Crisis within the next year or two or three, that is going to have a huge impact on his plans. So I think we should be talking this stuff over. We have had a few conversations about it over the years. He accepts some of it but he certainly does not buy in 100 percent. Again, I find this strange. If what I say is so, it is going to have a huge impact on his life. I am obviously willing to spend as much time as it would take to go into it with him in great depth. But I take my signals from him as to whether he wants to talk about it or not. Generally, he does not. So I largely keep it zipped. Again, I doubt that he will read the book. He might. There’s a chance. But I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on it.
We had a strange conversation when I was at his house on the fourth of July. There was some sort of conversation about witchcraft and the irrationality of how it was dealt with historically. I mentioned the parallel to how we deal with stock investing today — that it is irrational not to discuss Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research at every web site. This got him a little agitated. He said something about how it doesn’t matter if people are irrational, that it should not be my concern. He’s worried about me. The comment came from a good place. I tried to explain that dealing with human irrationality is my life’s work, that that’s pretty much what journalists do, they bring things to light that people are keeping covered up so that people can live better lives. I see it as a wonderful, life-affirming thing to do. We dropped it because it was clear that we did not agree.
That’s the dynamic that is going on everywhere. Boo and I are divorced because she does not appreciate how big a deal this is and she doesn’t appreciate how big a deal it is because she has not lived through what I have lived through and she is not terribly interested in getting up to speed by reading my article or my book or whatever. I think that that general phenomenon is universal. People are not comfortable with the lies that we tell each other about stock investing. I think that people know on some level of consciousness that they are lies but they don’t want to have to face that realty because recognition of the lies would make the irrational exuberance disappear and they can’t stand that throught. I see it as an urgent piece of business to expose the lies because that’s what journalists do. Most people are not journalists. So they just cannot see why I don’t let it go.
I have engaged in a small amount of dating since the divorce. I have seen this phenomenon play out with women who I have gotten involved with. The subject of what I do obviously comes up. It is obviously weird that I have not had money coming in for such a long time. They don’t want to be rude to someone they are just getting to know and who they might generally like a little bit. So they have to come up with something to say. What I have heard several different women say is something to the effect of: “I don’t possess any expertise in financial theory.” It’s a polite way of changing the subject. It doesn’t take any particular expertise to appreciate what is going on. It is very basic, we have as a nation of people created a mountain of irrational exuberance and we want to be able to plan our financial lives as if it were real money. Why do these women say that? They could ask me for a longer explanation, I am obviously happy to provide it. They want to change the subject. They do not feel comfortable talking about this subject.
That’s the entire deal right there, There’s shame involved in the creation of irrational exuberance. We are all involved in it. We create irrational exuberance as a nation of people. Some of us are very active in doing so. Others play their part just by keeping their mouths shut about it. But this is a community project. That’s why we tolerate the behavior of you Goons. We enacted laws criminalizing a good bit of the Goon behvior because in a general sense we hate it. But when it comes to helping us create and maintain a mountain of irrational exuberance, most of us are willing to make an exception. That’s the dynamic.
I believe that we need to stop doing this. That’s my story. But most people have come to accept the creaation and maintenance of mountains of irrational exuberance. They cannot imagine a world in which portfolio values are reported honestly and accurately. That world seems like a pipe dream to most people. I see it as a better world for all of us and an easily attainable world. So I am making the case for permitting that world to grow rather than stomping it out every time someone like me works up the courage to make an honest statement about some aspect of the stock investing project.
Boo is a good person. She would have been 100 percent supportive of my work if it brought in money like all other forms of work that husbands choose for themselves to do. But the work that I chose for myself on the morning of May 13, 2002, is different. This work must be stomped out, in the minds of 10 percsent of the Buy-and-Hold population (the Goons). And the general population, while it is horrified by the tactics that you Goons employ to stomp out discussion of the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research, is not inclined to do too much about it. The general population (the Normals) is opposed to the Goon behavior but tolerant of it because the general population is sympathetic to the Goon cause of keeping the mountain of irrational exuberance in place.
Telling me that you have discovered one more person who is fine with keeping the mountain of irrational exuberance doesnt impress me. I’ve seen it all with my own eyes. I am coming at things from a different perspective, the perspective of a journalists. Journalists see it as a good thing to expose corruption. The 41-year cover-up of Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research findings is the most amazing example of corruption that I have ever come across. So I feel a great need to work to understand it better and then to share what I have learned with everyone who is affected by the massive act of corruption, which is all of the humans. That’s the conflict here. That’s the story. That’s what is going on.
My best wishes.
Rob
” I don’t believe that she will read the book when it is finished.”
“Again, I doubt that he will read the book.”
I think it is telling that you realize that two of the people who have been closest to you will not be reading the book.
I don’t believe that either of them will read the book, my reasoning is a little different; I don’t believe you will ever finish the book. You have been talking about it for way too long and the finish seems to be disappearing in to the distance.
Has anyone (other than you) read any of it yet? Do you have any completed chapters that you would be willing to share online?
I agree with you that the book has taken far longer to complete than it should have taken. There is a lot of emotional angst associated with the project. I am 100 percent certain that I will complete it. No, i have not shared any sections of the book and I am not going to do so until it is complete.
My best wishes.
Rob
Most authors deal with emotions and passion. You just can’t function. You can’t deal outside your protected website and ValueWalk.
Please identify one other person who was written a book on the many far-reaching how-to implications of Shiller’s amazing Nobel-prize-winning research findings. There isn’t one. Shiller himself hasn’t done it. He wrote a book on the theory but refrained from exploring the how-to implictions.
That’s why the project is so important and so necessary. The less people talk about this stuff, the harder it is for everyone else who wants to talk about it to do so. The more people talk aboit it, the easier it becomes for everyone else to do so. My aim is to open EVERY site to honest posting re the research. I want every single person on the planet to feel 100 percent free to share his or her sincere thoughts. That certainly includes Buy-and-Holders but it includes Valuation-Informed Indexers as well.
I wish that it wasn’t such a difficult journey. But it is what it is, you know. I doubt that there will be too many saying that they wish that we could go back to the day when we rarely talked about this stuff once we have opened every site to honest posting. If we were all thinking clearly, we would have launched the national debate in 1981!
Rob
You haven’t even written that book. So what. It doesn’t mean anything. The world decides what they need and want to have. It would be no different than me writing a book about the far reaching implications of installing microwaves in Teslas. Is it needed? Do people want it? Will anyone buy the book?
You could have put out dozens of short books, papers etc by now and then you would have known if there was any market for it. You haven’t and you won’t.
No one, including you has written such a book. No one, other than you, thinks there is something far-reaching. No one said we needed something from you.
Instead, you continue on as a legend in your own mind. All words and no substance.
You haven’t even written that book. So what. It doesn’t mean anything. The world decides what they need and want to have. It would be no different than me writing a book about the far reaching implications of installing microwaves in Teslas. Is it needed? Do people want it? Will anyone buy the book?
You could have put out dozens of short books, papers etc by now and then you would have known if there was any market for it. You haven’t and you won’t.
There’s never been any other subject that generated even a fraction of the interest. That was true not just at one board but at all of them. The interest in Valuation-Informed Indexing is off the charts.
It’s not an interest held by the majority of any of the board communities. That’s not even close to being so. And the intensity of the opposition to the discussions being held is a lot stronger than the desire that they be held. But there’s a lot of interest. And this is a highly lucrative field. The first few expert who take on the cause stand to make mountains of money.
We’ll see how it goes.
Rob
No one, including you has written such a book. No one, other than you, thinks there is something far-reaching. No one said we needed something from you.
Instead, you continue on as a legend in your own mind. All words and no substance.
Yeah, yeah.
Rob
“ There’s never been any other subject that generated even a fraction of the interest.”
Most topics have much greater interest. You might want to stop reading your own 20 year old posts and catch up to the modern world.
You Goons behaved the way you did because you didn’t see any threat in the thousands of our fellow community member expressing a desire to learn what the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research teach us all about how stock investing works in the real world.
That makes sense, Anonymous. Truly outstanding!
Rob
I guess you figured we all needed to keep it zipped and just let Hocomania run wild, right?
That makes sense, Hocus…………….not
I don’t think you can have a society in which research is published in peer-reviewed journals and cannot be discussed by the investors affected by it.
It’s an inherently unstable situation.
Rob
You are totally free to discuss it. Sign up for the Bogleheads conference, post on Reddit, etc. The world is open to you, so go ahead and do it.
Has the Greaney study been corrected?
If it hasn’t been, then there obviously is going to be conflict when I point out at all of the various discussion boards and blogs that it lacks a valuation adjustment.
The comments that you Goons post here on an almost daily basis tell me that the world is not open to those who believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research. If it was, we would all be discussing the far-reaching how-to implications of that research at every site every day.
There’s nothing wrong with 90 percent of the population of investors saying that they believe in Buy-and-Hold. Those people should be permitted and encouraged to post honestly as well. But everyone should understand that there is not one academic model for understanding how stock investing works but two and we should not see any of the drama that we have seen during the first 21 years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate.
The Greaney study lacks a valuation adjustment. Hence, those who believe that Shiller’s research is legitimate believe that it gets the numbers wildly wrong. That’s the most obvious observsation possible. There should not be any drama appearing when someone makes that observation. Friendly, helpful discussions aimed at getting to the truth of the matter, yes. But no nastiness or ugliness or intimidation.
We need to NORMALIZE discussion of how stock investing works. That means permitting and encouragingn discussion of ALL the research, including the research that Shiller published in 1981 and follow-ups to that research (auch as the Bennett/Pfau research showing that “Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!”).
When the discussions have been normalized, I will be participating in them actively. I hope to have my book on stock investing completed by then and I hope that many find the book helpful in making sense of all this stuff. Getting stock investing right matters. We are all in this together. We all need to have the stock market function properly to provide for our financial futures. So we all should be working together to see that the goon stuff is reined in and that the substantive discussions that thousands of us have expressed a desire to see go forward are permitted to do so.
That’s where I am coming from, Anonymous. My best wishes to you and yours.
Rob
The Greaney study is fine and your are not a dictator. No one has to do a single thing for you. You said you want to have a discussion. Your opinions on Greaney are opinions and have nothing do do with your unwillingness yo have a discussion by participating at the Bogleheads, Reddit, etc.
You know this as well, but you use Greaney as a scapegoat for your unwillingness to work, interact with others or be a normal person.
The American people are the ones that matter. A good number of them (thousands) have already expressed a desire that honest posting re the peer-reviewed research be permitted. That number may well increase in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis, when we are liked to see millions of failed retirements and hundreds of thousands of businesses going under and millions of workers thrown out of jobs. At some point, the pressure to permit honest posting will become too much to ignore.
The other thing is that this is a highly lucrative field. Given the huge interest in honest posting re the peer-reviewed research, there are a lot of experts in this field who would like to come clean and tell people about what the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us. We have already seen scores of them make an attempt to do some honest work and be smashed down by you Goons. As the dangers of Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold become more and more clear, there are going to be more experts who become more willing to stand up to you Goons. And, each time someone works up the courage to post honestly, it becomes easier for others to do so. So the thing will gather momentum over time.
We’ll see.
Rob
— I wrote an article a few years back called “Buy-and-Hold Is Dangerous.”
Is that article available anywhere? Do you have a link you could share?
I’m not going to offer you a link, Evidence. You know the story from the stuff that I have posted here.
Rob
You won’t give a link. You won’t get a job. You won’t attend a public forum. You won’t post on any of the major websites. You won’t finish a book.
Instead, you think everyone else needs to do what you say.
It’s not that I want anyone to do what I say. I want them to do what THEY say.
I didn’t write the published rules for posting at the Motley Fool site. Greaney and the members of his Goon Squad violates those rules in about a dozen ways on z dsily basis. Why make people agree to follow then rules before they are permitted to post if you are not going to enforce the rules. I didn’t write the laws agsinst death threats and against extortion and against defamation. The people of the United States adopted them for their own protection. I say that those rules should apply in the investment advice field in the same manner as they apply in every field other than the investment advice field.
The problem is that, once we apply those laws, there is nothing to stop us all from having the discussions we need to have to come to appreciate the far-reaching how-to implications of Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research. Once we do that, Buy-and-Hold/Get Rich Quick goes down. Once we do that, there will be no more irrational exuberance and we would all live richer, fuller, better lives. But we LOVE irrational exuberance! We love Buy-and-Hold! We love Get Rich Quick!
Will we love it as much in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis? Will we love it as much after we have seen the millions of failed retirement and the hundreds of thousands of business failures and the millions of people thrown out of work that we have seen in the years following every earlier out-of-control bull market? We’ll see, you know? My vote is for permitting honest posting.
I vote that way strongly and with great enthusiasm. But I only get one vote, you know?
Rob
They don’t say there is an error in Greaney’s study. That is you saying it. They don’t say there were death threats. You are the one making the allegations. YOU are telling them that they need to let you come on their forums and spread lies. Why should they? Not to mention, they can control the content of their websites just like you control the content on your website.
You don’t get a vote in other people’s lives. You don’t get a vote as to what other people are compelled to do. If you want something, do it yourself.
We’re all in this together, Anonymous. I think we all should be working together to open every site on the internet to honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research. The next Buy-and-Hold Crisis is going to affect every person in the United States, even non-stock investors. So we all should be working together to make the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis a little less painful than it would otherwise be and to insure that this is the last Buy-and-Hold Crisis we experience.
This is not the first time in history that a group of people made a mistake. The best thing to do when you learn that you have made a mistake is to correct it and get it behind you. The worst thing to do is to cover it up.
My sincere take.
Rob
“ We’re all in this together, Anonymous.”
No, we are not. This is your little crazy story and crazy life. We don’t want any part of it.
http://www.passionsaving.com/investing-discussion-boards.html
Rob