“Some People Believe One Thing, Other People Believe Another Thing. That’s Why They Call Them DISCUSSION Boards. People with Different Perspectives DISCUSS Their Differences and See If They Can Learn Something About the Other Point of View by Talking Things Over a Bit. That’s the Board Project.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this web site:

Yes but it also doesn’t work anymore and I don’t think it was adequately tested out of sample. Due to a number of changes the average p/e has more or less permanently shifted.

Rob – you literally read like an insane version of chat gpt.

Okay. Now we at least have something that is kinda sorta within the realm of reason. That’s progress.

I believe that stocks will continue to perform in the future at least somewhat as they have always performed in the past. It is certainly the case that today’s CAPE value is a good bit higher than what we usually see. But there is no reason to conclude that that’s a permanent situation. There have been many cases in the past in which stock prices have TEMPORARILY traveled to insanely high levels and then returned to reasonable levels or continued dropping to much lower than reasonable levels. It’s all part of the phenomenon that Shiller calls “irrational exuberance.” We will all know more when we see how low prices fall in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis and how long they remain at those lower levels once they fall to them. If irrational exuberance is truly still a thing, that is going to show up in the shifts in stock prices that we all see as time goes on.

Have i ever given the slightest indication that I would object if you said during board discussions that you believe that Shiller’s research “doesn’t work anymore”? I believe it still works. So I 100 percent need to say that in all comments that I offer. But I have zero doubt that, if you say in response to my comments indicating that I believe that Shiller’s research still works that you don’t believe that it does, you are going to see lots of people agree with you. Fine, you know? It’s all part of the wonderful game.

Some people believe one thing, other people believe another thing. That’s why they call them DISCUSSION boards. People with different perspectives DISCUSS their differences and see if they can learn something about the other point of view by talking things over a bit. That’s the board project. At the old Motley Fool board. And at every board I have posted at during the first 20 years of the discussions.

Maybe I’m wrong. It’s been known to happen. If it turns out that I am wrong about something, and we permit honest posting, as I strongly believe we should, that is going to come out in time. And of course it works the other way around too. If the Buy-and-Holders got something wrong back in the 1960s when they were puttiing their strategy together and we permit honest posting, that is going to come out in the discussions and we are all going to learn from them.

No death threats. No unjustified board bannings. No extortion. No thousands of acts of defamation. None of the Goon garbage that has been holding us all back for 20 years now. None of that should ever happen. You have one point of view re how stock investing works, I have another. All. good. That’s what makes for a good DISCUSSION. A good civil, reasoned, friendly, respectful discussion.

That’s where I am coming from, Anon. I don’t agree with you re a few things. But I don’t hate you. I am happy to talk things over with you from time to time. And with others. Some who will no doubt agree with you. Some who will agree with me.

And I naturally wish all of those people the best that life has to offer a person regardless of what investment strategy they elect to follow.

Rob