A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

“I Don’t Think You Can Have a Society in Which Research Is Published in Peer-Reviewed Journals and Cannot Be Discussed By the Investors Affected By It. It’s an Inherently Unstable Situation.”

by

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

I guess you figured we all needed to keep it zipped and just let Hocomania run wild, right?

That makes sense, Hocus…………….not

I don’t think you can have a society in which research is published in peer-reviewed journals and cannot be discussed by the investors affected by it.

It’s an inherently unstable situation.

Rob

Comments

  1. People are happy to talk about research. They are not happy when people keep repeating the same lies over and over again and refuse to listen to what others have to say.

  2. There are two schools of academic thought re how stock investing works. Anonymous. It is a logical impossibility that both are correct because they are rooted in opposite premises. As a nation of people, we need to figure out which one is right. The only way we can do that is to talk it through, showing respect and friendship to those on “the other side.”

    My sincere take.

    Rob

  3. No, there are not two schools of academic thought on how stock investing works. You have been told that many times as well. In fact, a wise man point out to you that your comment comes off as as “self aggrandizement”. As to your other comment, people have tried to talk it through with you, but you refuse to listen and continue to just repost the same comments over and over and over again.

  4. I’ve asked on numerous occasions what it is that you think Shiller changed from a strategic standpoint that was so important that he was awarded a Nobel prize. You never respond. That shows me that there are two schools of academic thought. A world in which valuations affect long-term returns is entirely different from a world in which the market is efficient. If the market were efficient, market timing would not be required. If valuations affect long-term returns, it is 100 percent required for every investor. Those are very different worlds.

    I believe that valuations affect long-term returns. I believe that market timing is always 100 percent required. I believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research.

    I wish you all good things. But that’s what I sincerely believe.

    Rob

  5. “ That shows me that there are two schools of academic thought.”

    Who are you to determine how many schools there are? You are not an expert in the field, nor do you have any formal training. You are not part of a consortium of thought leaders.

    What you believe doesn’t matter one bit.

  6. The reaction we have seen from people who have been exposed to my thinking says a lot.

    We have had thousands of our fellow community members express a desire that honest posting re the peer-reviewed reseaech be permitted. That woildn’t happen unless there was something important in what I am saying. It is possible that I do not have everything 100 percent right. That’s a possibility for anyone who offers an opinion on anything. But the fact that thousands have expressed a desire that honest debate be permitted shows that we should as a nation of people permit the debate.

    Then there are the people who started out as Buy-and-Holders and became converated to Valuation-Informed Indexing as a result of my words. The Wade Pfau story is an amazing story. This guy told me a numbeer of times that he just couldn’t get over what his research was showing him. He kept asking himself: “Am i making a mistake?” Because he had heard so many times that market timing doesn’t work but his research was showing him that market timing ALwAYS works and is always 100 percent required. We should have permitted Wade to tell us all what he discovered with his research and encouraged him to do more research re Valuation-Informed Indexing.

    Then there was John Walter Russell, who thought this was so important that he devoted eight years of his life to researching it without ever receiving one dime of compensation. And then you have Rob Arnott, who said that everything that I say about stock investing checks out (he served as editor of the Financial Analysts Journal for four years) but that he had seen so much absuive stuff directed at him from Buy-and-Holders because he had “crossed” them by telling the research-based truth about stock investing that he couldn’t afford any more controversy in his life.

    Then we have you Goons. Death threats ain’t normal. Extortion ain’t normal. Demands for unjustified board bannings aint’s normal. You Goons are in great pain. It’s because you are trying to defend the indefensible. It is a cultural norm in our society to permit breakthrough research to be discussed. If we don’t discuss such research, the breakthroughs serve no good purpose. But you Goons dont want millions of people to learn about the better way to invest in stocks. So you are reduced to abusive and in some cases criminal behavior to keep the history train from moving forward. I think we all should elect to give you a break by opening every site to honest posting.

    That’s where I am coming from re this one, Anonymous.

    Hang in there. old friend.

    Is Greaney an expert in the field? Why is it that he gets to tell people that a 4 percent withdrawal rate is always “100 percent safe” but none of the other non-experts is permitted to ask qustions about the methodology he used in his study? I am a non-expert who sincerely believes that he failed to include a valuation adjustment in the study. I was wrong to not point that out three years sooner than I did. There were people who used that study to structure their retirement plan.

    Rob

  7. “ The reaction we have seen from people who have been exposed to my thinking says a lot.”

    Once again, this is your interpretation. The reality is that no one from the community has interacted with you in over a decade. Instead, the blocked you or have ignored you. This is outright rejection. Even your wife left you.

  8. Are you okay with waiting to see how things play out in the days following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis?

    We have seen many. many signs that as a nation of people we want to move forward to a far superior understanding of how stock investing works. And, yes, we have also seen many, many signs that we are afraid to move forward. The advance from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is so huge that we worry that it will make the Buy-and-Holders feel bad for people to learn that there is a much better strategy that has been available to us for 42 years now.

    Are we basically a good people or are we basically a corrupt, rotten people? That’s the question that we will be facing after we see the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis destroy millions more lives. I believe that we are basically a good people that has made some mistakes. I believe that the pain we are going to see as a result of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis is going to be so horrible that we are going to work up the courage to “cross” the Buy-and-Holders by opening every site to honest posting. We are going to get to a point where we just cannot live with ourselves if we don’t start applying the same laws that apply in every field other than the investment advice field in the investment advice field as well.

    I don’t say that I know that with 100 percent certainty. There’s never been a situation like this before. So I don’t think that anyone can say with 100 percent certainty. But I believe that we are going to elect to move forward. I certainly hope that that turns out to be the case. And I will be proud and happy to be able to help the effort in any way that I can.

    I don’t see how I have any alternative. What would you Goons have me do? Should I say that I have now come to the conclusion that the Greaney retirement study actually does contain a valuation adjustment after all? Do you really see that as a viable option at this pojnt? I believe that that stopped being a viable option on the day when Greaney advanced his first death threat. That’s not the way that someone who truly believes he included a valuation adjustment in his study behaves. It’s just not.

    This song came to mind when I was crafting this post:
    https://www.google.com/search?q=rosie+strike+back&rlz=1CAKDZI_enUS1001US1001&oq=rosie&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j46i433i512j0i433i512j46i433i512j46i131i433i512j69i61l3.4185j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:5ab8574a,vid:eQUJ_DtUxoA

    The fact that a lot of people live in fear of the sorts of individuals who have put up posts in “defense” of Mel Linddauer and John Greaney does not suggest that the Lindauerheads and the Greaney Goons are in the right. The fact that they feel that they need to resort to abusiveness for their “case” to prevail shows that they know how weak it is intellectually.

    “You can’t suffer your whole life living like that.” That’s what I believe. This sort of thing is not normal or healthy. We wouldn’t have laws against this sort of thing if we thought it was okay. One side very, very, very much wants to have an internet-wide debate and the other side very, very, very much wants to suppress debate. I can’t help but wonder why.

    My best wishes, etc.

    Rob

  9. “ Are you okay with waiting to see how things play out in the days following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis?”

    Two decades isn’t waiting long enough? Even you have admitted that when you are in your 60’s with a failed retirement, it is too late.

    You seem to keep blaming everyone else, like Mel and John in this last post. The fact is that everyone is responsible for themselves and only have themselves to blame if they fail. We are all gown adults.

  10. If it were up to me, we would have all moved forward on the afternoon of May 13, 2002.

    But. no, two decades is not enough for me to say that I believe that Greaney included a valuation adjustment in his retirement study. It’s just not in me to say that, for good or for ill.

    I do wish you all good things.

    Rob

  11. Sorry, but sitting around for over 2 decades and being broke in your 60’s is not a good way to go in my book………..but if that is what you want, more power to you. Just don’t expect anyone else to be eager to join you in a failed pursuit.

  13. Greaney and everyone else is not going to lie to you just to make you feel better and to go along with the little fairytale you cooked up just so you could avoid having to go out and get a real job. For goodness sake, you are a grown adult, not a little child.

  15. What if the online investment community was willing to help you get a job. Interested?

  16. I’d be interested if the job was helping to spread the word re Valuation-Informed Indexing. But there will be thousands of jobs doing that once I am successful in opening every discussion board and blog to honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. That’s the thing that I need the online investing community’s help with. That would benefit us all — me, the online investment community, millions upon millions of stock investors, on and on and on. There’s huge leverage in that one. I implore the online investment community to help me with that one.

    Fair enough?

    Rob

  17. We are not talking about a job in the pretend world. We are talking about a job in the real world. One that actually produces something and to which you get paid for.

  18. Okay, Anonymous.

    I do not consider the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research “pretend.” The reason why I became a Buy-and-Holder in the days when I became one is because they recommended looking at the peer-reviewed research for guidance. The benefit of looking at research in my view is that it takes you away from the pretend subjectivity that has harmed stock investors for as far back as there has been a stock market. Irrational exuberance gains are pretend gains, in my assessment.

    So we are coming at things from a very different perspective.

    I expect to get paid handsomely for the good and important work that I have done. But we will have to wait to see how it all plays out to find out for sure.

    My best wishes to you.

    Rob

  19. The last 42 years of mental health research indicates you need professional help. I don’t know if you can get it for free, however, so you will have to find a real job to pay for that as well. The pretend money you think is coming your way is no different than Monopoly money and people will expect to be paid with REAL dollars.