“Our First 21 Years of Discussions Show That 10 Percent of Investors Believe That Shiller’s Nobel-Prize-Winning Research Showing That Valuations Affect Long-Term returns Is Legitimate Research. That’s Millions of People. If Those Millions Had All Insisted on Their Right to Post Honestly at Every Site Going Back to 1981, We Obviously Would Not Have a CAPE Value of 30 Today. So We Have as a Nation of People Put Ourselves at Grave Risk of Enduring Another Buy-and-Hold Crisis Because We Have Not Had the Courage to Stand Up to the Buy-and-Hold Goon Squads.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

This is the path that millions of American’s take.  Why is that not good for you?

My concern is that I sincerely believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins.

Our first 21 years of discussions show that 10 percent of investors believe that Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns is legitimate research. That’s millions of people. If those millions had all insisted on their right to post honestly at every site going back to 1981, we obviously would not have a CAPE value of 30 today. So we have as a nation of people put ourselves at grave risk of enduring another Buy-and-Hold Crisis because we have not had the courage to stand up to the Buy-and-Hold Goon Squads. Not good, right?

I have asked others to work up the courage to post honestly. I come across as pretty darn hypocritical if I don’t do it myself, no? I think that I should do myself what I implore others to do.

Getting the numbers right in retirement studies is important. My sincere take.

Rob