Valuation-Informed Indexing #659: Irrational Exuberance Didn’t Start With Buy-and-Hold

I’ve posted Entry #659 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Irrational Exuberance Didn’t Start with Buy-and-Hold.

Juicy Excerpt: The Buy-and-Holders made a terrible mistake. Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns was not available at the time the strategy was being developed and they advanced the dangerous idea that market timing/price discipline might not always be required.

Now we are stuck in a crazy twilight zone where we know from the research that it is but in which most of us are afraid to point out that the Buy-and-Hold emperor is wearing no clothes because it makes them feel bad for people to learn about the mistake.