Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“If we were all thinking clearly, there would not be one person in the United States disagreeing with any of this.”
So only Rob Bennett thinks clearly and the rest of us are delusional idiots. Got it.
Today’s CAPE value is 31, Anonymous. What does that say about our ability to think clearly?
We’re trying to do better. Shiller’s book was a best-seller. He was awarded a Nobel prize for his amazing research. Thousands of our fellow community members have expressed a desire to see honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research permitted at every site.
But we have obvuously not yet brought it all the way back home. A nation of people that is thinking clearly does not permit the CAPE value to reach 31. We should all be working together every day to bring that CAPE value down to a more reasonable level. It takes market timing/price discipline, you know?
My sincere take.
Rob
Has Shiller ever told anyone that they should time the market?
Yes. He published a paper in 1996 warning that any investor who failed to lower his stock allocation in response to the crazy high CAPE value that applied at the time would live to regret it within 10 years.
Rob
If Shiller has told people that they should time the market with CAPE, then you haven’t really done anything. As such, you haven’t added any value and are not owed one dime of your $500 million windfall fantasy.
So Shiller gets the credit for timing and not you. There goes the $500 million!
If Shiller has told people that they should time the market with CAPE, then you haven’t really done anything. As such, you haven’t added any value and are not owed one dime of your $500 million windfall fantasy.
My contribution has been to make the case that we need to open every discussion board and blog on the internet to honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research. Yes, Shiller told us what we need to know to invest effectively. But his research represents a revolutionary advance over the understanding of how stock investing works that had become dominant at the time that the Buy-and-Hold strategy was being developed. We have as a nation of people elected to incorporate the Shiller revolution in two stages: (1) the publication of the Nobel-prize-winning research in 1981; and (2) the decision to give ourselves permission to DISCUSS Shiller’s amazing research at every internet site, which I believe will come in the days and years following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis.
It does us no good to have Shiller’s research available to us for so long as honest discussion of his amazing research is prohibited at every site. Look at the CAPE value that applies today. Is that an advance over what we had in pre-Shiller days? It is not. We have seen the worst bull market in U.S. history AFTER Shiller published his amazing research. We all have a Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold impulse within us that makes us want to create mountains of irrational exuberance, To act in our self-interest, we need to be reminded daily of the dangers of Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold. We need to open every site to honest posting re the research. I belive that that will be a turning point in U.S. history.
I know it will be!
Rob
So Shiller gets the credit for timing and not you. There goes the $500 million!
Shiller certainly gets the credit for publishing the Nobel-prize-winning research showing why market timing/price discipline is always 100 percen required for every investor. Today’s CAPE vsalue shows that Shiller’s amazing research findings are not widely appreciated among stock investors today. For Shiller’s amazing research to have practical effect, we need to give ourselves permission to discuss his Nobel-prize-winning research at every site. I have been making the case for that for 21 yeards now.
The $500 million number is a lowball estimate of what I would have earned from the millions of investors who wanted access to accurate and honest reports on what the peer-reviewed research in this field says. What I have said is that I would be willing to settle my legal claims for that amount. It’s such a big number that I would rather settle for that amount than have any feelings of acrimony continue. We all want the same thing. We all want to know how to invest effectively.
My Buy-and-Hold friends have made many important contributions. I couldn’t have done what I have done without their help (I learned about the error in the Greaney study by reading Bogle’s book). So I would like to work with them to spread word of how stock invresting works in the real world at every site. I believe in that saying to “keep your eyes on the prize.” The prize is opening the internet to honest posting re the research and our Buy-and-Hold friends can help with that effort. So I think that accepting a settlement makes sense.
My best wishes, etc.
Rob
“would live to regret it within 10 years. ”
and did they live to regret it withing 10 years?
They did not. But Shiller’s paper included a caveat noting that, given that we only have historical return data going back to 1870, precise return predictions are not possible.
The entire nation came to regret our collective decision not to take Shiller’s warning seriously when we experineced the Buy-and-Hold Crisis of 2008. That crisis caused widespread political frictions on both the left and the right. Both the Occupy Wall Street movement and the Tea Party movement had their origens in that Buy-and-Hold Crisis, which could have been avoided had we worked together as a nation of people to get the CAPE value down, as Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research shows is always the best course of action.
Rob
“ The $500 million number is a lowball estimate of what I would have earned from the millions of investors who wanted access to accurate and honest reports on what the peer-reviewed research in this field says.”
What reports? Your reports? Shillers reports? When were these for sale and where?
Every time someone on the internet says that a 4 percent withdrawal rate is “100 percent safe,” we need to have someone who knows about the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research pointing out the error. If people don’t hear about the error, they are inclined to accept the number as accurate.
That’s why today’s CAPE value is 31. If honest posting re the research were permitted at every site, we would never again see such a CAPE value and we would never again need to live through another Buy-and-Hold Crisis.
That would be just fine with me. I cannot bear to think about all of the human misery that we see each time the relentless promotion of a pure Get Rich Quick stock investing strategy brings on another Buy-and-Hold Crisis. That sort of thing is just not my particular cup of tea.
My best wishes.
Rob
You seem to throw the word “goon” around at the drop of a hat. What makes someone a good in your world?
In this context, a Goon is someone who directs his energies to suppressing discussion of the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. 90 percent of Buy-and-Holders are not Goons. I think that the Buy-and-Holders are wrong in their understanding of how stock investing works (they believe that market timing/price discipline is not required). But that’s fine. I can learn from them and they can learn from me. I like them and I respect them. The Goons make up about 10 percent of the population of Buy-and-Holders. They have no interest in learning anything about stock investing that was not known at the time when the Buy-and-Hold strategy was being developed. They want to block learning in this field, no matter what it takes.
I like learning. So, while I like some of the Goons as people and have had good times with a number of them, I oppose the anti-learning Goon agenda.
Rob
I have not seen anyone suppress any of the research, except for the owner of this website. I haven’t seen anyone but you that has resisted learning about what the research really says.
Okay, Anonymous.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours, in any event.
Rob
Is there anyone that disagrees with you that is not a goon?
I disagree with all Buy-and-Holders on the market timing question. 90 percent of Buy-and-Holders are not Goons. I refer to the 90 percent as “Normals.” They are fine with the idea of permitting honest discussion re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research at discussion boards at which they participate. They don’t like the nastiness that you Goons bring to the table. however. They are okay with bans on honest posting being imposed to bring the nastiness to an end. That’s what needs to change is we all are as a nation of people going to advance in our understanding of how stock investing works. I believe that the Normals may become less tolerante of the abusive posting tactics of you Goons in the days and years following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. We’ll see.
Rob
Well then, just stop banning the honest posting on this website. All the research is allowed on all the major website that ban you. If you stop with your bad behavior and apologize, maybe they will let you back on. The ball is in your court.
I’m going to continue to say that I believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins, Anonymous. That’s what I believed on the morning of May 13, 2002. After 21 years of this stuff, I believe it more strongly than ever today.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
I am going to continue to say that no one is interested in being broke and divorced like you.
I believe that we are fundamentally a good people, Anonymous. I get it that we have flaws. I get that one loud and clear. But I continue to believe that we are a good people.
It will be interesting to see how things play out in the days and years following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis.
I natiurally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow, in any event.
Rob
Are you a “good person” if you fail to keep your commitment to support your family?
I’m not a good person if I am a member of a discussion board community and I an aware of an error in a study that a lot of people in that community are using to plan their retirement and I keep my mouth shut about it. I’m pretty sure I have that one right.
It pains me a great deal that you Goons were willing to hurt my family to keep the error in the Greaney retirement study covered up. But, if I agree to keep quiet about the error to appease you Goons, then the mistake that the Buy-and-Holders made (short-term timing really doesn’t work but long-term timing is always 100 percent required for every investor) is never going to get corrected and we will continue to suffer through these horrible Buy-and-Hold crises. That can’t possibly be the right answer. No one should have to choose between being able to support his family and being able to talk honestly about how stock investing works. We all should be able to do both without there being any “controversy” about it. We need to normal discussions of how stock investing works. We need to have the same laws apply in the investment advice field that apply in every other field of human endeavor. Then none of us will ever again feel the need to make such crazy choices.
That’s my sincere take re this terribly important matter, in any event.
Rob
You quit your job long before you came up with the silly Greaney story/excuse.
I saved lots of money over many years so that I would be able to responsibly quit my job and devote my remaining years to independent, personal finance journalism. I enjoyed huge success writing about the Passion Saving concept at the Motley Fool board. John Greaney advised anyone visting the Retire Early board to read all my stuff first because it was “seminal” on the subject of how to achieve financial independence early in life. My “Secrets of Retiring Early”report becamr the #1 best-selling report in the history of the board and was featured with a glowing review by Tom Garder on the front page of the site.
The stock prices dropped a bit and Greaney went into freak-out mode and was driving all of the best posters off the board with his insanely abusive behavior. I felt that I could no longer put off talking about the error that he made in his retirement study. If nstudieo one talked about it, he was going to destroy the board. So I put up my famous post of the morning of May 13, 2002. Numerous community members thanked me for launching the most important discussion ever held in the histry of the forum. Big-name experts in the field learns about The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate and prased me effusively for my work. Wade Pfau asked me if I was willin to work with him on research checking out the merit of my investing ideas. He devoted 16 months of his life to researching them, concluded that: “Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!”
My observation that the Greaney retirement study lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins is not a “story.” If it contained a valuation adjustment, Greaney would have provided a link to it by now. It’s been 21 years. Greaney isn’t the only one who made that error. There have been thousands of newspaper articles on retirement planning that advanced the infamous “4 percent rule.” The error should have been corrected many years ago at every place that had advanced that rule. People use retirement studies to plan retirements. Getting the numbers right in such studies is important.
Rob
You only had $400k. You were irresponsible.
My :iiresponsibility” permitted me to tell the world about an error in the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies that has hurt millions of people in very serious ways and that will continue to hurt millions more until it is corrected and people who do work in this field become free to advance honest, accurate, research-based studies. Please mark me down as being very, very proud of my “irresponsibility.”
I never claimed that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all valuation levels. I was never THAT irresponsible. I never left a retirement study at my web site that I had learned contained a significant error uncorrected for 21 years. Holy,moly!
Rob
You quit your job many years before you came up with your Greaney cover story. You should feel shame. Only a sick person would be proud to do what you did to your wife and kids.
I disagree. I felt like a creep during the three years when I was afraid to speak up about the error in the study. I owed my fellow community members better. I did the right thing on May 13, 2002.
No one should ever feel pressured to lie about how stock investing works. We need to open every site to honest posting re Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research. We all need to put the mistake that the Buy-and-Holders made back in the days before Shiller’s research was even available to them and move on together to better days.
Rob
No one is buying your silly story. Even your ex-wife didn’t believe you and then she dumped you.
Woe is me, Anonymous.
When all of the horrors of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis appear (in the event that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate, we should expect this to happen within the next year or two or three), I will be able to say that I began telling the “silly story” 21-plus years earlier and I did all that a reasonable person could do to get the word out to people. Being able to sleep at night matters to me. Call me madcap.
Rob
“ Woe is me, Anonymous.”
No, it is not all about you and your made up heroics. Woe is your family who lacked a provider, just do you could avoid working a job.
Okay.
I did what I had to do. I don’t believe that I have it in me to play it the other way.
I suppose that my ex also did what she believed she had to do.
We are not all the same. I believe that I am playing out the role that The Fates/God/Evolution/The Universse created ne to play out.
And, yes, I wish you all good things. The Universe created Goons too, you know? From my perspective, Goons add nothing positive to the picture. But it is what it is. I believe that my job is to accept what is and to play the role that I was put on Planet Earth to play. I sincerely believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaneys site lack and adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. Everythig else follows from that. I sincerely believe that that is so. And that it is important to get the numbers in retirement studies right.
I wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors.
Rob
“ I did what I had to do. I don’t believe that I have it in me to play it the other way.”
Just like a drunk that HAD to have another drink.
Don’t get married or have kids if you don’t intend on supporting them.
Okay, Anonymous.
My best wishes to you.
Rob