Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Name on other person that has written a book on the far reaching implications of why Teslas don’t have microwave ovens.
The suggestion here is that it is not important to explore the how-to implications of Shiller’s amazing research. I think it is very, very, very important. That’s why I have devoted 21 years of my life to the project.
If we had all been thinking clearly, a national debate on the how-to implicatons of Shiller’s research would have been launched on the day in 1981 when the research was published. We are today 42 years behind in our understanding of how stock investing works as a result of our delay in launching that debate. If we fail to launch it by the close of business today, we will be yet another 24 hours behind where we could have been.
Shiller was awarded a Nobel prize for his work. He must have showed SOMETHING beyond what was known in the 1960s, when the Buy-and-Hold strsategy was being developed. Do you have any thought about what that something might be, Anonymous? I am not looking for theoretical generalities like the claim that “valuations affect long-term returns.” I certainly believe that that is so. But what I want to know is how does knowing that valuations affect long-term returns affect one’s strategic choices in investing? I say that it shows that market timing/price discipline is always 100 percent required. What do you say it shows?
My best wishes.
Rob
If you were thinking clearly, you wouldn’t be broke. If you were thinking clearly, you wouldn’t be divorced. If you were thinking clearly, you wouldn’t be making up stories every day.
We’re 21 years into this and the Greaney retirement study hasn’t been corrected to this day. And I am the one who is not thinking clearly.
I think we need to solve the problem. Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research points us to the way to a solution. I think we need to grant ourselves permission to talk about it.
That’s my sincere take, in any event.
Rob
I realize Greaney publicly embarrassed you a long time ago. You need to get over your hurt feelings. Making up stories and creating false narratives won’t help you out of your desperate financial predicament.
Okay, Anonymous.
Please take good care.
Rob
“We’re 21 years into this and the Greaney retirement study hasn’t been corrected to this day. ”
There is nothing stopping you from producing a version of the Greaney study with whatever changes you see fit to add.
Your unwillingness or inability to do so is your problem, not someone elses.
Okay, Evidence.
I do wish you all good things, in any event.
Rob
I don’t like the way John Greaney mows his yard. John needs to mow his yard to my satisfaction by close of business today.
Greaney should mow his lawn in an analytically valid way, Anonymous. You’ll get no argument from me re that one.
My best wishes.
Rob