Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Shiller and his research is allowed. Pfau and his research is allowed. Your opinion is not “research”. What is not allowed is your poor behavior and that is why YOU are banned.
The only poor behavior that I am guilty of is that I said in my famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002, that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. Many community members reacted by saying that I had started the most important debate ever held at that forum. There was huge interest in the subject of how valuations affect safe withdrawal rates. Gresney didn’t like seeing that. He completely flipped out and sent his Goon Squad into action. I believe that, if he truly believed that he had included a valuation adjustment in the study, he never would have even formed a Goon Squad. He is the one guilty of poor bahvior for not correcting the study within 24 hours of the moment he leanred that he had made an error in it.
Anyway, that’s my sincere take. I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow.
Rob
“What is Step 2? There isn’t one. You will still be in the same position as you’ve been in for the last 10 years. Why didn’t something happen for you after the 2008 financial crisis? You are like the guy who keeps predicting new ends for the world as each previous prediction date passes by.”
At first, I was thinking that Wade was right with this prediction. However, we see he was wrong. You are not in the same position. You are in a much worse position as your wife divorced you, so you no longer have financial support from her.
Step Two is opening every discussion board and blog to honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research. I think that’s the answer, Anonymous.
I know it is!
Rob
The discussion boards are open to honest posting (except your website) and nothing has changed for you, other than the divorce.
Okay, Anonymous.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours.
Rob
Things have changed for the people of the United States.
If irrational exuberance is a real thing (I believe it is), it causes people to make bad decisions. Irrational exuberance causes them to believe that their stock portfolio possesses more lasting value than it really does possess. That causes them to spend more than they would otherwise spend and to save less than they would otherwise save. It the extent to which the presence of irrational exuberance makes stocks a less appealing asset class is not discussed at every site, it causes investors to go with higher stock allocations than they would choose to go with if the peer-reviewed research were being openly discussed. It causes businesses to make poor decisions re what products to produce because purchases that are made because consumer are fooloed into thinking that the irrational exuberance portion of their portfolio is read lead the business owners to believe that there is more demand for their products than really exists.
These poor decisions hurt all of us in very serious ways. There’s more irrational exuberance in the stock price today than there was back in May 2002.So we are doing more harm to ourselves today than we were doing to ourselves back then. And of course the cumulative effect of tolerating a mountain of irrational exuberance for 21 years running is scary to contemplate. As I have mentioned before, I would permit honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research at every sire, without a single exception.
My best wishes.
Rob