A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

Comments

  1. If market timing schemes had $500 million in value, why hasn’t Shiller, Pfau or thousands of others push market timing given the financial windfall you say that it is?

  2. Because of the abusive posting. That’s what’s holding us all back. If there had been no abusive posting, we would today as a nation of people be 21 years ahead of where we are in our development of the Valuation-Informded Indexing concept. If you count back to when Shiller published his Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns, it’s 42 years.

    Will it soon come to an end? I hope so. I think so. We’ll see, you know?

    Why don’t we just correct prices without having to be exposed to honest posting on the research? Why don’t we just do it on our own? Because we all have a Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold urge residing within us. That urge is the thing that has made stock investing risky for as far back as there has been a stock market. Shiller showed us how to move beyond that. But we cannot obtain the benefits that should flow from having his research available to us until as a nation of people we give outselves permission to discuss it at every internet site, without a single exception.

    That’s where I’m coming from re this one.

    Rob

    Rob

  3. You keep talking about abusive posting, but you have yet to give a link to just one example. In fact, Wade talked about all the harm YOU caused him. That must be the abusive posting you keep talking about.

  5. We only see evidence of abuse coming from you. The abuse that Wade spoke of, the abusive comments you made about John Bogle being a con-man, the abusive comments you made about buy and holders going to prison, the financial abuse of your ex-wife when you refused to financially support her, etc. If you have actual evidence of abusive posts, then it is your obligation to provide evidence that it happened. Otherwise, we can only conclude that these are just more fraudulent accusations.

  6. Enter the words “Shiller CAPE” into a search engine and see what turns up, Anonymous. You can’t have a CAPE vsalue of 31 at a time when there’s 42 years of peer-reviewed research showing that valuations affect long-term returns without a whole big bunch of abusive behaviior being used to block millions of people from learning about the far-reaching how-to implications of those research findings.

    That’s where I’m coming from re this matter, in any event.

    Rob

  7. This is yet another reason why you are banned. You make allegations that lack any evidence and then tie it to your faulty thought process that has been debunked thousands of times. You refuse to listen to anyone which has resulted in everyone putting you on ignore, losing all your money and home and your wife divorcing you.

  8. Okay, Anonymous.

    I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investment strategy you elect to pursue, in any event.

    Rob

  9. Just shocking that people actually expect proof to back up allegations, right? Just shocking that a wife expects you to bring home a paycheck, right?

  10. If a CAPE value of 31 isn’t suffiient proof for you, then you are beyond persuasion, Anonymous.

    The problem is not that the case is not super, super strong. The problem is that the horrible CAPE value does not actually frighten people. People are complacent about it. The test is going to be what happens in the days and years following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. If the widespread human misery causes people to wonder what happened and what we need to do to make sure that it never happens again, then we ‘re in business.

    Those who follow the peer-revciewed research have known how stock investing works for 42 years now. But the majority of us do not want to know. The majority takes comfort in the oversized numbers that appear on their portfolio statement. They want to believe in Buy-and-Hold/Get Rich Quick/the Easter Bunny. Believing in the research over the Get Rich Quick impulse is not a 100 percent natural thing for the humans. Lots of people want to know more about the possibility. We’ve seen that at every board. But a small population of Goons has been able to hold the boards hostage and block the learning from taking place. And, for 21 years now, the majority of Normals has not been able to work up the courage to stand up to the Goons. So we are where we are.

    I remain optimisitc. But we’ll see, you know? I thought this would take two days, three at the max. So I am clearly not all-knowing. I know that I could not sleep at night if I agreed to say that the Greaney study contains a valuation adjustment. So I do what I mught do to be able to sleep at night, I tell myself that the reason why it has taken so long is that the advance is a truly revoutionary advance and that the gains we will achieve on the other side will make the pains it took to get there worth it many, many times over. Wish us luck, you know?

    My best wishes.

    Rob

  11. If you really believed in all of what you say, you would have filed criminal charges, you would have filed multiple civil lawsuits, you would have completed multiple books and you would be participating on all the major websites (such as Reddit).

  12. If the world were open today to hearing about the dangers of Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold strategies, the CAPE value would not be 31. That CAPE value suggests an insane level of emotion. The more emotional we are about stock investing, the less open we are to taking the peer-reviewed research into consideration.

    I believe that there will come a day when both the CAPE value and confidence in Buy-and-Hold will collapse. I don’t believe that this level of emotionalism can be sustained. But it’s where we are.

    There’s no lack of evidence that the Greaney retirement study lacks a value adjustment. But the study has remained uncorrected for the 21 years since I publicly pointed out the error.

    The “idea” that market timing is not always 100 percent required is the “idea” that permits bull markets. We have intellectually gone beyond that idea. But we still cling to it emotionally. It still has its supporters and its supporters cling to it with a desperation that the advocates of research-based strategies do not possess.

    Rob

  13. In world where someone doesn’t listen to anyone else and just keeps repeating the same nonsense. Everyone else decides to reject that person. They go broke, lose their home and spend there time sitting all alone. If you want something to change, look at yourself and see if you are the one that needs to change before demanding everyone else to change.

  15. So we are all to believe that you didn’t make all those ridiculous posts and that someone else has hijacked all of your accounts and made those posts? And we are all so supposed to believe that all those boards owners lied, Wade Pfau lied, Robert Shiller lied and your ex-wife lied? All just one big conspiracy theory, right?

  16. Was it all a giant conspiracy when women were not permitted to vote for many years?

    Was it all a giant conspiracy when cigarettes were marketed without warning about how they cause cancer attached?

    Was it all a giant conspiracy when slavery was practiced in the United States?

    The humans did not come to Planet Earth with an instruction booklet for how to handle every possible topic. We occasionally experience huge advances in our understanding of an important subject. That’s what happened in 1981, when Shiller published his Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns and that there is precisely zero chance that a strategy that does not all for market timing in response to big price shifts could ever work out well for even a single long-term investor. If you want to call it a conspiracy of ignorance, I’m fine with that.

    There’s only one way to dispel a conspiracy of ignorance. Permit discussion of the new knowledge at every place at which people show an interest in learning about it. Everybody in this field will be jumping up and down with excitement about finally being permitted to explore the far-reaching how-to implications of Shiller’s amazing research once it is made clear that we are not going to tolerate any more of the Goon abusiveness. The same laws that apply in every field of human endeavor other than the investment advice field should apply in the investment advice field as well.

    That’s where I’m coming from re this one, in any event.

    Rob

  17. There is nothing similar to your situation versus those you list. Instead, it is simply a question of you lying or all those other people collectively lying.

  18. I think we are all in the same situation, every last one of us. We all need to know how stock investing works in the real world. So we all need to have every discussion board and blog on the internet opened to honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research, without a single exception.

    That’s where I’m coming from re this thing, in any event.

    My best wishes to you and yours.

    Rob

  19. “ I think we are all in the same situation, every last one of us.”

    We are all over the age of 60, broke and divorced? Of course not.

  20. We’re all going to suffer terribly in the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis, in the event that stocks continue to perform in the future anything at all as they have always performed in the past. We all have a great need to see every internet site opened to honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research, without a single exception.

    Rob