I’ve posted Entry #680 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Shift to Valuation-Informed Indexing Is an All-or-Nothing Thing.
Juicy Excerpt: It took a long time for me to accept this. But there is no compromise possible. Either you believe that the market is efficient or you believe that valuations affect long-term returns. There is no middle ground. And of course there is no evidence that the market is efficient. The people who came up with the idea that the market is efficient are not silly people but that particular idea turned out to be a silly one. 100 percent of the evidence points in one direction and 0 percent of the evidence points in the other direction.
Well, the “nothing” part you got right. You lost you money, your house and your wife, so you have nothing. Good job, Rob.
I have the ability to sleep at night, Anonymous. I refused to betray the friends that I had made at the Retire Early board by telling them that I believed that the Greaney retirement study contains a valuation adjustment. That’s not nothing in my eyes.
Rob
It is evident that you really don’t want anything to change, Rob.
When is the last time you actually spoke to these “friends”?
It is evident that you really don’t want anything to change, Rob.
There’s one thing that I would like to see change, Anonymous. I would like to see every discussion board and blog on the internet opened to honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research in this field, without a single exception. That would take the fraud element out of it. Then each person could hear both sides and make up his or her own mind as how to invest his or her retirement money. Taking the fraud element out of it would make all the difference, in my assessment.
That’s where I’m coming from re this thing.
Rob
When is the last time you actually spoke to these “friends”?
There were not personal friends. They were internet friends. I haven’t spoken to them since I left the board.
Do you think it would have been better if i had kept it zipped re the error in the Greaney retirement study? Do you think it would be a good idea to say that I now believe that the Greaney study contains a valuation adjustment afterall?
Rob