Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
This article could have easily been written about you:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/10/the-crash-callers-wont-save-you/
Your track record is even worse.
There’s a phrase in that article that makes my blood run cold. It refers to “the glorious bull market.” To me that’s like referring to “my glorius brain cancer.” They don’t call it a bull market when stocks go up up the 6.5 percent real justified by the economic realities. For it to be called a bull market. the price gains have to be out of control. Those are the sorts of price increases that cause bear markets and economic crisis. You can keep them, so far as I’m concerned. Those are the sorts of price increases caused by the promotion of Buy-and-Hold “strategies.” Not this boy, you know?
I think Hussman has the right idea. He is at least trying to assess risk. That’s what all stock investors should be doing, in my opinion. I don’t say that everyone should agree with Hussman or with me or with Shiller or with anyone else. But I think that everyone should be thinking about these matters, everyone should be assessing risk at all times. The Buy-and-Holders don’t do that. Buy-and-Hold is a price-indifferent strategy. It is a put-your-head-in-the-sand strategy. I am not a put-your-head-in-the sand type of guy.
No, Hussman doesn’t nail it every single time. Nor do I. Nor does Shiller. At least we are in the game. At least we are trying. The Bennett/Pfau research shows that investors who put in a little effort have been beating the pants off of Buy-and-Holders for as far back as we have records of stock prices. I believe that there’s a realistic chance that stocks will continue to perform in the future somewhat as they always have in the past.
We’ll see, you know?
Rob
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