Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Here ia a link that shows numerous threads at bogleheads discussing Shiller and CAPE https://www.google.com/search?sitesearch=bogleheads.org&q=shiller+cape
There are numerous sites where Shiller and CAPE are discussed. The fact that you have been banned at a number of investing sites does not mean that the topic is not discussed. And the fact that you delete comments that you don’t like demonstrates why you are banned at a number of sites.
When was the Greaney retirement study corrected, Evidence?
There are people who used that study to plan a retirement.
The people who run the Bogleheads Forum know that, as soon as someone says that the safe withdrawal rate is always 4 percent, I am going to point out that it is a logical impossibilty that the safe withdrawal rate is always the same number. Thats’s why I am banned.
Rob
“ When was the Greaney retirement study corrected, Evidence?”
Thousands have told you that it didn’t need to be correct, yet you continue to ignore that.
Do you believe that Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns is legitimate research, Anonymous?
Rob
I believe Robert Shiller when he said that you should not time the market with CAPE. I have posted this before, but you choose to block the post every single time. What are you hiding?
Shiller published an entire paper advocating market timing in 1996. He wouldn’t have done that if he didn’t believe in it.
He made an offhand comment in an interview indicating some sort of doubts about the matter. We all should want to know about the ins and outs of Shiller’s beliefs about market timing. I have suggested on scores of occasions that the Buy-and-Holders agree to drop the abusive stuff for a day and invite him to the Bogleheads Forum and ask him to describe his views on this question in detail. You Goons have never shown the tiniest bit of enthusiasm for the idea. I wonder why.
It is a logical impossibility that, in a world in which valuations affect long-term returns (the world we live in, according to Shiller’s research), market timing would not be required for investors who want to keep their risk profile constant over time.
That’s my sincere take re this terribly important matter, in any event.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours, Anonymous.
Rob
Shiller has never said the time the market with CAPE. Instead, he has warned against it.
Um — that follows, Anonymous. Shiller believes that valuations affect long-term returns but that investors do not need to take valuations into consideration when setting their stock allocation. Makes sense!
Maybe irrational exuberance is a good thing! Maybe Shiller should have placed an exclamation point at the end of the title of his book.
Please take good care.
Rob