Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Unfortunately, most people ARE market timers. Take a look at the stats. The top 10% of people own the majority of stocks because they take advantage of market timers that dump cheap shares. Take a look for yourself, Rob. Who owns the shares?
If most investors engaged in valuation-based market timing, we could never have the CAPE value (34) that applies today. Each time stocks became overpriced and the value proposition of owning stocks dropped a bit, the demand for stocks would drop and the price would return to reasonable levels.
Today’s CAPE value shows that most today are following a Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold “strategy.” It’s a national scandal that that is so 43 years after Shiller published his Nobel-prize-winning research showing us all for the first time how stock investing works in the real world.
My sincere take.
Rob
If you can successfully time the market then do it. The results will speak volumes. Until we see positive results the standard advice for the average man will be to keep fees and turnover low, and to not time the market. My sincere take.
That advice was developed in the 1960’s, long before Robert Shiller published his Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns. It needs to be updated.
There are millions who share your take. There are also millions (not nearly as many millions, but still) who would like to hear the other side of the story. It is not for you to decide what those people can hear.
That’s my sincere take.
Rob
No one is stopping you from showing the way and no one is banning discussion of your strategy. If you can successfully time the market then do it. Results would be more meaningful than 20 years of your columns and blog posts.
I suppose at this desperate stage you’d have to play options to prove your thesis.
The results from the past 150 years of stock-market history tell the story in a powerful way. If you had any reason to believe that Shiller’s research is in error, you would have presented it a long, long time ago.
Rob
I can log into Empower and get most of my score from their scorecard, “Net Worth” section, any time of the day (some accounts do not sync up). My (incomplete) score is just under $1,086,000 as of right now. I’d have to log into a few other websites to get the full number. This number is much higher than $0 and I still plan to work for another 19 years.
I don’t think you understand how investing works.
I make an adjustment for irrational exuberance and you don’t. I would say that you are the one who doesn’t understand how stock investing works. You invest as if the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research in this field doesn’t exist.
Rob
How much is a $0 portfolio worth after adjusting for irrational exuberance?
The fact that you Goons felt it necessary to engage in criminal behavior to “defend” the Greaney retirement study does not count in favor of Buy-and-Hold, it counts against it. If you knew of any research supporting the claim that valuation-based market timing is not always 100 percent required for every investor, you never would have engages in any criminal behavior. You would have presented the evidence for your case. I mean, come on.
Rob
I engaged in no criminal behavior wrt investing!
Death threats. Extortion. Financial fraud. All engaged in an effort to “defend” the Greaney retirement study.
If I were to agree to say that the Greaney study contains a valuation adjustment, I would be engaging in financial fraud too. Thanks but no thanks, you know?
We need to open every site to honest posting re the peer-reviewed research. There’s no other way.
Rob
If VII worked, then why didn’t your $400K portfolio turn into tens of millions instead of going to zero? You had full control over your investments, right?
If VII worked, then why didn’t your $400K portfolio turn into tens of millions instead of going to zero? You had full control over your investments, right?
Switching to a research-based strategy will in most cases add several hundred thousands of dollars of accumulated wealth to an investor over the course of his investment lifetime. It’s not going to add tens of millions.
In my case, you Goons engaged in abusive and in some cases criminal behavior to punish me for pointing out the error in the Greaney retirement. So I had to pull money from savings. That obviously shows nothing about the merit of the strategy. What it shows is that even the members of the Buy-and-Hold Goon squads don’t believe that their strategy can prevail in civil and reasoned debate. Gee, I wonder why.
Rob
Funny how no one but you seems to see those alleged criminal acts. Wade never seen any. Even JWR never claimed to see any criminal acts.
Both John and Wade saw them and were appalled by them. I have numerous emails in which we talked about them.
The people of the United States will decide the matter in the days and years following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. I believe that the people of the United States will prevail in the end. I believe that we are fundamentally a good people and that the same laws that today apply in every field other than the investment advice field will someday also apply in the investment advice field.
But we’l see, you know? I certainly never thought that this stuff would continue for 22 years. So I obviously don’t know everything.
For now, I continue to agree with the famous Evidence post of late 2022. I believe that “nobody” truly believes that the Greaney retirement study contains a valuation adjustment, “including Greaney himself.”
My best wishes.
Rob
And we are to just take your word for it? Funny how they never made any public comments about criminal acts. Wade has been asked about it and he denies it, yet he will talk about all the harm you have caused him.
Given your stellar track record of success, why are you not listed as a keynote speaker at the Bogleheads conference:
https://boglecenter.net/2024conference/
Check the study, Anonymous. It’s available on the internet. Or ask Evidence why he said what he said.
Rob
Given your stellar track record of success, why are you not listed as a keynote speaker at the Bogleheads conference:
https://boglecenter.net/2024conference/
I should be. If Buy-and-Hold were a real thing, the Buy-and-Holders would be happy to hear challenges to their way of thinking about how stock investing works.
The ban on honest posting is what needs to change. If we permitted honest posting re the peer-reviewed research at every site, we wouldn’t all be living under the threat of a CAPE value of 35. You can have honest research-based posting or an insanely inflated stock price, you can’t have both.
Rob
The success of your detractors and the failure of your own retirement speaks volumes.
Okay, Sensible.
I think the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research speak volumes. Different strokes for different strokes, right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUUhDoCx8zc
Rob
Can you buy groceries with your opinion of the peer reviewed research? How about that for different strokes.
I cannot buy groceries with it.
But I can sleep at night knowing that I did right by my fellow community members, some of whom had become friends over the years. That matters more than groceries to me. Call me madcap!
Rob
Rob – That is exactly what all this is about. It is being able to pay the bills during retirement. All these stories about how you are helping community members is a bunch of crap. You help people by showing what has been successful so that they can model it and pay the bills when they need to.
The peer-reviewed research shows what has been successful in the long-term.
If Greaney truly believed that his retirement study contained a valuation adjustment, we never would have seen a single abusive post. If you find it impossible to “defend” your strategy without making use of abusive posting, there’s something terribly, terribly wrong with your “strategy.”
That’s my sincere take re this terribly important matter, in any event.
Rob