Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Rob, it doesn’t matter who you convince. The numbers matter. Your market timing scheme has never worked and you are broke. Isn’t actually a good thing people are not following your advice?
The Bennett/Pfau research shows that Valuation-Informed Indexing has been trouncing Buy-and-Hold for as long as there has been a market to invest in.
You have no way of knowing what the numbers show, You don’t adjust for irrational exuberance, as the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research shows is required to get the numbers right.
If we had opened every site to honest posting re the research on the afternoon of May 13, 2002, we never would have experienced the Great Recession of 2008. That would have been better. And the CAPE value today would not be anything even remotely in the neighborhood of 34. It would be something close to 17. That would be better.
And none of our discussion boards or blogs would have been destroyed as a result of your abusive posting. That would be better. And hundreds of people would have written books on Valuation-Informed Indexing over those 22 years, so as a nation of people we would be much farther along in our development of the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept. That would be better.
Rob
You have to live in the real world. Even if buy and hold caused the Great Financial Crisis (it did not) you have to live in the real world. A consequence of your refusal to invest properly and to even work is that you’re broke.
I believe that Buy-and-Hold was the primary cause of the Great Financial Crisis and I believe that we need to as a nation of people take steps to see that it doesn’t happen again. We all should be doing what we can. So I do what I can.
Rob