Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
You were hugely successful in making a case, yet you can’t get anyone to post over here anonymously. Sounds like you were a huge failure.
It would be fair to say that that’s so in a short-term sense.
I don’t think that it’s so in a long-term sense.
There was a thing that Martin Luther King said about civil rights. It was something along the lines of: “The arc of history bends toward justice.” There were lots of setbacks. lots of frustrations. But things things continued to move gradually under the surface in the right direction and in the end huge progress was made.
I believe that the arc of history in the personal finance realm bends toward rationality in stock investing. There’s where things are headed. I obviously wish that it didn’t have to be so hard or take so long. But I continue to believe that that’s where things are headed.
The behavior of you Goons is one reason why. Your behavior is not normal. It is 100 percent outside the parameters of normal human behavior. There has to be some explanation of that. I think it is that you desperately want Buy-and-Hold to be a real thing but you have zero evidence to point to in trying to argue that valuation-based market timing is not always 100 percent required for every investor. All of the evidence points in one direction and no evidence whatsoever points in the other direction. So you are in a tight spot. So we see this crazy behavior as your means of coping with this difficult reality.
I don’t believe that that approach is sustainable. It’s too weird. It has “worked” in a way for 22 years. You have managed to keep enough people in the dark to keep Buy-and-Hold going for a long time. But there is just too much evidence that valuations affect long-term returns for it to remain a viable strategy for the long term. So I think that both your strategy of intimidation of anyone who refers to the peer-reviewed research and Buy-and-Hold itself will fall in time. And that that will be a wonderful day for the people of the United States. If there had never been a Buy-and-Hold, we all would have become Valuation-Informed Indexers a long time ago.
We are as a nation of people undergoing a struggle. Everyone should be on the side of wanting to see the debate that we need to have go forward. Each time someone permits himself to be intimidated into silence, it makes it worse for all the others who want to do real, honest work. Each time someone works up the courage to stand up to you Goons, it makes it better for all the others.
We are not where we need to be. But we are much more closer than surface indications suggest.
Or so I sincerely believe, you know? I am not God. I theoretically could be wrong. I certainly never thought that the abusive stuff would continue for 22 years. But that’s what I believe. So that’s why I continue to insist on my right (and the right of all others) to post honestly re the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research.
Rob
You’re not MLK. You have no movement. Your suffering is self inflicted and for no real cause. Every day that you continue with this stuff is a day wasted. I’ve gone years without checking in on you and when I came back it was like it was a decade ago. Nothing changed, you just keep repeating yourself.
I’m not Martin Luther King. I 100 percent agree with that one.
I do believe, though, that the arc of history bends toward rationality in stock investing. It’s an exceedingly strange situation to have 43 years of peer-reviewed research that we are not able to talk about on the internet. It’s my job to make sense of that reality. A big part of it is that the advance from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is so huge that we have not been able to achieve it in a single step. We have essentially decided as a nation of people to permit the intellectual advance by having Shiller’s research published in a peer-reviewed journal and by awarding him a Nobel prize and all this sort of thing but to also keep Buy-and-Hold going by prohibiting the discussion of Shiller’s research that is needed for it to have a positive effect in the practical realm. We have opened the door a bit but we have not opened it all the way.
I think that’s a good description of the reality. It’s a very, very, very strange reality. But I think that’s a good assessment of where things stand. And I think that there is a definite parallel with the comment that Martin Luther King was making. He was saying that we had done many things as a nation of people that showed that we did not like the idea of racism continuing to be a defining characteristic of life in the United States. We hadn’t opened the door all the way. There were still horrible remnants of racism that we were not willing to give up. But we had gone too far to return to the past. Things had gone too far for us to turn back. He was making an optimistic statement.
I am optimistic about stock investing. I don’t think that we can indefinitely prohibit honest posting re the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research. I think that to have a ban on honest posting re research that was awarded a Nobel prize is an inherently unstable situation. It just cannot last. People are eventually going to find a way past you Goons and are going to engage in the discussions that they have shown they want to have re the peer-reviewed research. I think that it is inevitable that we will move forward in our understanding of how stock investing works in time. I think that those of us who would like to see us all become empowered to live better and richer and freer and fuller lives just need to remain patient and hopeful and the wonderful times that we are looking for will in time come to all of us.
My sincere take.
Rob
No one is stopping you from going to reddit, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube or many other places that are popular today. You are banned at Bogleheads, but that’s a relatively small community and it was created specifically to get away from you. Outside of Bogleheads you’re free to post. The other sites that I mentioned are much more popular than Bogleheads is.
I’m not just banned at Bogleheads, Sensible. I am banned at Morningstar and at Motley Fool and at Early Retirement Forum and the Motley Fool board no longer exists as an early retirement place. I don’t want to be banned anywhere? I learn from talking things over with other people. I would like to be able to talk about the realities of stock investing (including what the peer-reviewed research says!) at every site that exists. If we were all thinking clearly, that’s what we all would want (yes, including you Goons). We learn together by talking things over together. We have put off learning about Shiller’s amazing research findings for a long, long time now. We need as a nation of people to start tapping into the benefits of that amazing research.
Yes, we need to open Twitter and YouTube and all these other places to honest posting re the research as well. Obviously. We will get to that. But I have been banned at enough places for the time-being. I think that we will be opening all those places to honest posting re the research in the days and years following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. The time is not ripe today. The important project today is completing this book. That’s got to be my first order of business for the time-being.
My best wishes.
Rob
Morningstar isn’t very popular anymore. I listed the places that count. Of all the forums you’re banned from only Bogleheads has any influence with the rest of the internet. But, again, you’re free to go to some other places that are very popular. Newbies are far more likely to see you at reddit or YouTube than Bogleheads, so you “win” there. But you refuse to post to these wildly popular sites.
Patience, Grasshopper. These things take time. It’s been 22 years. What’s another 22 months, you know? I think we will as a nation of people eventually find a way to talk over the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. Someday, someway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7sg66vfNHs
Rob
All of the most popular communities didn’t exist when you made your not-so-famous post in 2002. There are millions of adults who were not even born yet at that fateful time. Anyone who was, like me, a young adult at the time in now middle aged. The longest war in US history started and ended during this time. We’ve had two major price crashes in this time. Some of the people from the old Morningstar forums are now best-selling authors. All the while you have been “catastrophically unproductive” and are now broke and divorced. The world is moving on without you. Patience for what? How many years will it take for you to build up the “courage” to post your ideas to reddit?
Correction: your post was shortly after the start of the longest war.
I don’t set the timetable, Sensible. I’m one person.
I tried to play the game for a time. I posted at the Motley Fool board from May 1999 through May 2002 without pointing out the error in the Greaney study. He eventually made it impossible to continue that way. He just became too abusive and drove too many good posters away. I was backed into a corner and did what I had to do,
I get the feeling that you want something from me. But I can’t even guess what it is at this point. I love what the Buy-and-Holders did with the exception of their profoundly stupid idea that valuation-based market timing might not always be 100 percent required for every investor. Other than that, I’m a Buy-and-Holder myself. I don’t fault them too much for their mistake. People make mistakes. Shiller’s amazing research had not yet been published at the time that Buy-and-Hold was being developed. I know from the 22 years of discussions that the vast majority of Buy-and-Holders are okay with honest posting re the peer-reviewed research being permitted (even though it makes them a bit uncomfortable to hear that their portfolio value might be a lot less than what they were thinking).
What do you want from me? I am not going to say that I believe that the Greaney study contains a valuation adjustment. Obviously. What else is there? I am fine with saying that people at the Motley Fool board would have been taking an even higher withdrawal rate had it not been for the Greaney study. The study is in error but it did some good all the same. I would think that would help. But I don’t get the impression that it helps even a tiny bit. I am willing to do just about anything that I can think of to help you out with the exception of saying that I believe that the study contains a valuation adjustment.
It’s dishonest posting that got us into this mess. I am confident that more dishonest posting is not going to be the thing that gets us out. I sure don’t believe that seeing more hostility at Reddit or somewhere like that is going to be the answer. I think that we need to see less hostility, not more. My though is that the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis and all the human misery that will come with it might cause some of us to feel more compassion for all of us and that that in time might permit us to engage with each other with less hostility. Other than that, I don’t have any big ideas.
I wish you all good things. I’ve said that 10,000 times now. Saying that is one of the contributions that I try to make to taking us to a place where there is less hostility. Other than that and finishing the book as quickly as possible, I got nothing.
Hang in there.
Rob
If you want to get to a better place then I suggest you get a job at Walmart, put as much into the 401k as you can, put the $1800 into Walmart stock to grab the discount, and work for ten years so that you can salvage something that resembles a retirement.
Correction: your post was shortly after the start of the longest war.
The fact that we’ve been at this for 22 years and we still don’t have a correction of the error in the Greaney retirement study shows the importance of the root question. A world in which valuations affect long-term returns is a very, very, very different world than a world in which the market is efficient and there is no need for valuation-based market timing. The day on which we see a correction of the Greaney retirement study will be a turning point in the history of personal finance.
Or so this Rob Bennett fool sincerely believes, in any event, you know?
Rob
If you want to get to a better place then I suggest you get a job at Walmart, put as much into the 401k as you can, put the $1800 into Walmart stock to grab the discount, and work for ten years so that you can salvage something that resembles a retirement.
Thanks for the helpful tip and for your kind concern, Sensible.
I naturally wish you all good things.
Rob
Rob says: “Patience, Grasshopper. These things take time. It’s been 22 years. What’s another 22 months, you know?”
There is a time constraint, Rob. It is based on your projected lifespan. The average male lives to the age of 73. For those of us that have reached the age of 60, we can expect to live until 82. Average age at retirement is 64. Based on those numbers, if your retirement funding is not established by the age of 60, it is too late for a course correction.
Game over, Rob. You lost.
Woe is me. Whatever shall I do?
Rob
“ Woe is me. Whatever shall I do?”
Here is a novel concept: Get a job. Save some money. Invest.
As opposed to making up stories and expecting a windfall for doing nothing of value.
I’ll get right on it, Anonymous.
Please take good care.
Rob
“Saying that is one of the contributions that I try to make to taking us to a place where there is less hostility.”
Has it worked?
“Other than that and finishing the book as quickly as possible, I got nothing.”
What is your current estimate for finishing the book?
Given your track record with book completion estimates, how accurate do you think your latest estimate is?
What is your current estimate for finishing the book?
The end of the calendar year.
Given your track record with book completion estimates, how accurate do you think your latest estimate is?
It’s my best estimate. I acknowledge that my track record on meeting target dates is not good. This is a highly unusual project. Has anyone else done better? How many books do you know about that explore Shiller’s amazing research findings in depth? If the book comes out later than I once anticipated it coming out but it’s still the first book out on the biggest advance in personal finance in our nation’s history, was it worth doing? I think it will end up being worth doing 500 times over, even if s bit belated. If there had never been any abusive posting (as I have been suggesting going back to the first day), the book would have been out years ago.
Has it worked?
Yes, it has. Every site is not open to honest posting re the research today. So it has not worked 100 percent. But we have had thousands of our fellow community members express a desire that honest posting re the research be permitted. If I had not consistently behaved in a gentle and kind and polite and warm manner, I don’t believe that we would have seen that many good people work up the courage to stand up to you Goons. I learned from the comments advanced by those good people. Their comments made my book a better product. So, yes. I believe that my policy of responding with charity (while never going so far as to be outright dishonest, like I would be if I said that I now believe that the Greaney study contains a valuation adjustment after all) has worked well. I intend to continue to behave in that manner.
Rob
Do you have a publisher lined up or are you going to self-publish again?
I will self-publish.
Rob
I really don’t think this is wise. Self published books very rarely succeed. You have your own retirement to worry about. You also have your kids. What kind of message are you sending to your kids when they are, I assume, taking out loans for college and perhaps even working through college while you are unemployed and throwing tens of thousands of dollars away on vanity projects?
Thanks for your concern, Sensible.
I’m joking, of course.
Rob
I bet I sound at least somewhat like some people in your real life. Is there anyone online or, most especially, in your real life who still supports what you have been doing for the past 22+ years?
There are a number of people who are supportive. There is no one who is intensely supportive. I get asked about the investing stuff on a regular basis. Probably once a month someone will ask about it. The reactions are very similar. People are definitely interested. Nearly everyone seems to have some concerns re investing, they feel that they don’t know enough about it and are worried about what may happen to their money. So people want to know more. But people have a hard time grasping the story.
The issue is that it is just so darn big. It doesn’t sound plausible. You Goons have on occasion used the term “conspiracy theory.” I don’t claim a conspiracy. But I believe that people have a hard time accepting how 43 years of peer-reviewed research could be covered up without a conspiracy. It doesn’t sound possible. So people do not feel 100 percent comfortable with what they are hearing.
That’s my job with the book. I have to explain it in a way that makes sense to people. The core problem is that it’s just so big. Shiller took us to the undiscovered continent of stock investing — the psychological side of the story. People completely accept that there’s a psychological side to the story. But they have no idea how big it is. And they don’t understand how ignored it is in the advice that they hear. Shiller looked at the 70 percent of the story that has been hidden from all of us for a long time. It’s a very big advance and big advances are hard to grasp.
Big advances upset the apple card. This is a lucrative area for those who have acquired expertise. So there are lots of powerful people who would prefer that the apple cart not be upset.
People are definitely interested. And they don’t doubt that there are things being kept from them that it would be good for them to know. But they are generally not intense about this issue. They are 1/50th as intense as you Goons. They don’t feel confident re their ability to understand the issues. Most people are intimidated by the subject of stock investing. And it makes them uncomfortable to imagine that our system of government is not handling things. They feel that there should be people taking care of things.
And of course they don’t really want to think too much about their portfolios not being worth what they have been led to believe they are worth. That part of the story is of course highly distressing. They hear the words and they tune them out at the same time. Cognitive dissonance is very much a factor.
People have a complacency over it, a lack of urgency. Prices are of course high today. That makes people feel satisfied with their circumstances. People rarely get super worked up over something at a time when a situation seems positive. But there is definitely an undercurrent of concern.
Rarely do I have someone dismiss what I say out of hand. I have had that happen. When it happens, it’s because the person has a strong loyalty to the Buy-and-Hold Model. Then I get a “who do you think you are?” reaction. That’s not at all a common reaction.
That was a good question.
Rob