I’ve posted Entry #700 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Can Investors Be Both Rational and Emotional at the Same Time?
Juicy Excerpt: To persuade one’s self that history doesn’t matter is even a scarier possibility than acknowledging that today’s high stock prices are bad news for stock investors. If history doesn’t matter, then there is no sound reason to believe that stocks will offer strong returns on a going-forward basis. The historical record offers a discomforting message for those invested heavily in stocks today but a highly comforting message for those with a general preference for investing heavily in stocks.
Isn’t it just amazing that no one wants to get rich like you, Rob. They all just want to go broke, right?
Everyone wants to invest effectively. I am highly confident that, within six months of the day we open every site to honest posting re the peer-reviewed research, the percentage of Valuation-Informed Indexers will increase from 10 percent to 20 percent. At some point the 20 percent will become 40 percent. And at some later point, the 40 percent will become 80 percent.
The first step is opening every site to honest posting re the peer-reviewed research. If I were the king of the universe, we would have done that in May 2002, Or better yet on the day in 1981 when Shiller published his Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns.
No one wants to go broke any more than anyone wants to get lung cancer. But in the days when the tobacco industry suppressed discussion of the research showing the smoking causes lung cancer, there were more people getting lung cancer than there are today when people openly speak about the dangers of smoking. The things that permit people in a particular industry to turn a quick buck are not always the things that are best for the people served by that industry. Ethics matter. In all fields.
My sincere take.
Rob
You already had years at each site before you were banned and nothing happened for you. All the major internet sites (like Reddit) are still open to you, yet you avoid them. We know why. It is because they will all find out you failed and went broke.
Lots of things happened. Wade Pfau and I produced the most important research in this field since Shiller’s in 1981. John Walter Russell and I produced four amazing calculators together. We had thousands of our fellow community members express a desire that honest posting re the peer-reviewed research be permitted. The only thing that ever held us back was you Goons.
I’ll be participating in discussions after we have opened every site to honest posting. I’ve done my part and then some more and then some more. I’m writing a book on this stuff. That’s how I’m serving the cause. I want to help it. But I need to see some others stick their necks out first. I’ve taken a lot of shots. I need to achieve some healing before I go back into battle.
If we were all thinking clearly, there never would have been any battle. If Greaney truly believed that he had included a valuation adjustment in his study, we never would have seen a single abusive post. The bahavior of you Goons tells a story. Shiller says that stock investing is an emotioanal endeavor. Gee, do ya think?
Rob