Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Shiller does not say what you say. You throw his name around because you think it somehow gives you credibility. It does not. It is Shiller’s work. Not your work. If there is some kind of interpretation to be had, then it is up to Shiller to do so. Meanwhile, you are free to do your own research and write your own papers and make your own conclusions. Stop hijacking what someone else has done in order to spin it top further your agenda.
I say that Shiller says that valuations affect long-term returns. I say that Shiller believes that there is a phenomenon in the stock buying process that he calls “irrational exuberance.”
I also say that all of us (very much including Shiller himself) should be talking about the far-reaching how-to implications of his amazing research at every discussion board and blog, without a single exception. The core aim of the entire 22-year project is to make that happen. What I say is relatively inconsequential. What matter is what thousands and thousands of people say. We are not hearing those thousands and thousands of people today because they fear what you Goons will do to them if they express their sincere thoughts. That needs to change.
I have a funny feelings that I will not help the cause of it changing by agreeing to censor myself re the error in the Greaney retirement study (it lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins).
Rob
“ I also say that all of us (very much including Shiller himself) should be talking about the far-reaching how-to implications of his amazing research at every discussion board and blog, without a single exception.”
There you go telling everyone else what they should do. Nope. This is not a dictatorship. We don’t agree with you and don’t have to do a darn thing you say…..and that includes Shiller.
If you have an issue with Shiller, then you can go ahead and take it up with him.
Shiller has done many wonderful things. And he would be happy to do more wonderful things which would benefit each and every one of us once we agree as a nation of people to give ourselves permission to learn what we need to know about stock investing to obtain much higher returns are dramatically reduced risk. We are close today but not quite there just yet. I believe that we will make it in not too much more time. I sure hope so. I am certainly rooting for us.
It will be interesting to see how things play out.
My best wishes, etc.
Rob
We’ve seen how things played out. You lost your marriage, your house, and all of your money. Most people prefer learning from successful people and not those who lost everything.
Woe is me times ten. Holy moly!
Rob
If all these things had happened to a buy and holder, wouldn’t you tell him that it was proof that his strategy was incorrect?
If a Valuation-Informed Indexer got an important number wrong in a retirement study posted at his web site and then refused to correct it for 22 years. that would alarm me. I would speak up.
Rob