A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

“Show Us the Academic Studies That Say That Stock Prices Cause Recessions.”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Show us the academic studies that say that stock prices cause recessions.  Guess what, Rob.  The studies do not show that.  The problem is you just make statements without any facts to back it.

I am highly confident that, six months after we have opened every discussion board and blog on the internet to honest posting re the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research in this field, we will have numerous big names (including some who are today viewed as Buy-and-Holders saying the permitting stock prices to reach insanely high levels does indeed cause recessions. We’ll see.

There’s a reason why Shiller’s amazing research showing that valuations affect long-term returns caused him to be awarded a Nobel prize. Shiller’s research changes everything we once thought we knew about how stock investing works. It takes us from the dark ages to an enlightenment.

My sincere take.

Rob

Comments

  1. “ I am highly confident that, six months after we have opened every discussion board and blog on the internet to honest posting re the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research in this field, we will have numerous big names (including some who are today viewed as Buy-and-Holders saying the permitting stock prices to reach insanely high levels does indeed cause recessions.”

    I am highly confident that, after another 10 or 20 years, Rob Bennett will still be broke and if he is still capable, will be posting the same nonsense that has gotten him nowhere for the past 20+ years.

  2. Okay. We have conflicting visions of the future, Anonymous.

    I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, in any event.

    Rob

  3. “ We have conflicting visions of the future, Anonymous.”

    And how did all your past predictions turn out? I don’t know who plans to go broke and get divorced.

  4. My claim that the Greaney retirement study lacks a valuations adjustment was not a prediction. It was a statement of the realities. It has held up very, very. very well. I think it would be fair to say that precisely 100 percent of the evidence presented during the first 22 years of our discussions supports that claim and precisely 0 percent of the evidence cuts the other way.

    Where I’m coming from.

    Rob

  5. Why are you talking about your errors on Greaney as those were your statements and not your predictions. You made predictions about market crashes, buy and hold failures and how you would have higher return rates. None of that happens your timelines have long passed.

  6. A Buy-and-Hold Crisis is a bad thing no matter when it happens. We are talking about millions of failed retirements, hundreds of thousands of businesses going under, millions of people being thrown out of work and an increase in political frictions. I think it would be better to permit honest posting re the peer-reviewed research.

    Thrill rides come at a big cost.

    Rob

  7. We have never seen a buy and hold failure over any 30 year period for our entire history. Meanwhile, we have never seen one successful outcome with VII. Even you went broke. You talk about retirement failures, yet you ignore the fact that you have a failed retirement. Why would anyone think you are credible?

  9. You clearly don’t know your history. Tell us when there was even one 30 year period where buy and hold failed. Meanwhile you failed and VII has never worked for anyone.

  10. Anytime someone fails to practice price discipline when buying something is a failure. With Buy-and-Hold being promoted so relentlessly, there are millions doing it in the stock market.

    Hence, today’s CAPE value of 37. Totally avoidable. Totally optional 43 years after Shiller published his Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns.

    Rob

  11. Buy and hold has a 100% successful track record over every 30 year period. VII has never worked. Rob Bennett has been 100% dishonest on every post he makes.