Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
You haven’t done anything to earn a cent. No one has done anything to you. It is all made up. If you really wanted to post more of your opinions, you would be doing so on the largest platforms on the internet, but you can’t even lift a finger to do that. All you do it sit around and tell people what you want them to do for you and then you expect for people just to do your bidding.
Fix your own problems, Rob.
Yeah. yeah.
The Greaney study has not been corrected to this day, Today’s CAPE value is 36. Those two realities tell the tale.
Rob
You fail to correct you failures and you are still broke? Is Greaney broke?
Greany’s not broke.
We all come into the world with nothing and we all leave the world with nothing. I want to be able to say that I used the years of life that I was given to add something important to the world. If I succeed in opening every internet site to honest posting re the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research in this field, I will have done that. So I soldier on.
The ordinary thing is that people are compensated financially for doing good work. I believe that will happen in this case. So I will end up doing well as well as doing good. But that’s not my motive. My motive is to make a difference for millions of investors, who need access to honest and accurate and research-based investment insights.
I believe that Greaney’s retirement study lacks a valuation adjustment and I believe that Shiller’s Nobel prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns is legitimate research. So I will continue saying those two things. The people of the United States will determine how it all plays out. I believe that, in the days and years following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis, we will be able to find enough people with the courage to stand up to you Goons to turn the thing. But I don’t control it and I cannot guaranty it. I say what I need to say to be able to sleep at night and the universe decides the rest.
I wish you all the best regardless of how it plays out, Anonymous. I don’t agree with you. That doesn’t mean that I can’t see any good in you or that I cannot appreciate what you bring to the table.
Rob
The entire conversation is about a fully funded retirement. Greaney is not broke. You are. End of story.
Okay, Anonymous.
I believe that getting the numbers right in retirement studies matters. I didn’t feel comfortable participating actively in a discussion-board community where a guy was pushing a retirement study that got the numbers wildly wrong and everybody (including me for a long time) was afraid to point out the error. Some of those people had become friends of mine over the years.
The amount of money that one possesses at one particular point in time is not the only thing that matters, especially when a good percentage of that money is just phony irrational exuberance money.
Rob
We know who got the numbers right by looking at results. You are broke. The rest of us are not. This is after a very long period of time (long term results).
The Shiller study and the Bennett/Pfau research look at the entire historical record.
Rob
Pfau admitted this year that VII failed. Shiller told you not to time the market. They both said in those words that they don’t agree with you.
Wade said what he said under pressure. He was threatened. So those words don;t count. What he said during the 16 months in which he was researching Valuation-Informed Indexing are what count. And all of his research made him extremely excited about the concept and he said that quite openly and enthusiastically.
Shiller never said not to time the market. He published a paper in 1996 urging people to time the market. And his entire life’s work shows why people need to time the market. He made an off-hand comment in an interview once that supported what you are saying. But there was no follow-up to the comment to clarify it. So I cannot put a great deal of confidence in your interpretation of it. I do think that it is something that should be explored. I believe that everyone who has an interest in these matters (which would be every single one of us, if we were all thinking clearly) should want to resolve the matter definitively and that the way to do that would be to assure Shiller that there will be no funny business and invite him to the Bogleheads Forum to discuss in depth his beliefs about safe withdrawal rates and market timing.
Rob
Hocomania
Yeah, yeah.
Rob