“It’s Like Telling Your Kid That He Can’t Have a Second Bowl of Ice Cream. It’s a Simple and Yet Difficult Message to Convey.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

So what you are saying is that you don’t have any new material and that your book is just a repeat of what you have already said.  If that is the case, why wasn’t the book done many years ago?  Afterall, the ValueWalk articles are all repeats of things you have said many times before.

If it were an easy thing to write this book, thousands of people would have written it many years ago. Nobody has pulled it off. It’s Shiller’s research and he hasn’t written this book.

There’s nothing complicated about it. Shiller’s research is common sense. The price you pays for stocks affects the amount of risk you take on! Who would have thunk it? That’s the story.

It’s like telling your kid that he can’t have a second bowl of ice cream. People can retire years earlier by keeping the realities in mind. The Bennett/Pfau research shows that as clearly as anything can be seen. But people like thinking that the phony irrational exuberance gains they create are real. Woe to the guy who dares to tell them otherwise, you know.

It’s a simple and yet difficult message to convey. I think people need to hear this message. So I stick at it.

Today’s CAPE value is 36. That should tell you what you need to know.

Rob