I’ve posted Entry #722 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Stock Markets Can Remain Irrational for a Long Time — But We Can Change That.
Juicy Excerpt: We are the market. Investors make up the market. Saying that the market has been irrational for a long time is another way of saying that we have been irrational for a long time. We can of course do things about that. Humans have been known to evidence irrationality in lots of areas other than stock investing. I cannot think of another area where we tell ourselves that it’s okay just to continue with the self-destructive behavior. When we see reckless driving, we create public service commercials advising people not to use cell phones when driving. When we have loved ones drop dead from heart attacks, we ask the doctors if there are changes we could make in our diet to avoid suffering the same unfortunate fate. In areas other than stock investing, we understand that irrationality hurts us. So we make an effort to rein it in.
So you want people that own stock (equity in companies) that they need to sell their ownership in companies to you at a lower price because you think they should. The funny thing is that these companies owners (stock holders) aren’t forcing you to buy their stock. You can simply choose not to buy it. If you want fixed prices, move to a communistic country.
I’m the one saying to let the market do its work, Anonymous. People are obviously going to set stock prices at a different place if they are able to talk over what the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us all about how the market works.
You can choose to ignore the peer-reviewed research if that’s your preference. But you are out of line to engage in abusive and criminal behavior to suppress discussions of it that others want to engage in. You do you and let the others do the others.
Rob
The market is doing its work, Rob. People are free to buy and sell at prices they see fit. You choose to ignore the peer-reviewed research and push your own opinions with the fake label of peer-reviewed research. You are also the one suppressing discussion since we see you block a large percentage of posts here at this board.
So, as you say: You do you and let the others do what they want to do. They don’t need you telling them what to do with their choices as relates to stock investing.
If the market were doing its work, we wouldn’t have a CAPE value of 39. There aren’t enough people warning people of the dangers of Buy-and-Hold strategies.
Rob
It works. You just don’t like the prices. No problem. Don’t buy stocks.
What if I become a regular participant on a discussion board focused on early retirement and another poster there starts telling people that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number regardless of the valuation level that applies. Do you think that I should speak up in that circumstance?
Rob
That has already been answered. When has a 4% withdrawal rate failed over ANY 30 year period? Why has VII never had a successful outcome? Why haven’t you gotten a job despite going broke?
Why say that 4 percent is safe at a time when it is high-risk? Why mislead people?
Rob
4% has worked during every 30 year period. Why mislead people?
VII has never worked. Why mislead people?
Shiller told you not to time the market with CAPE. Why mislead people?
Your strategy failed and you went broke. Why mislead people?
The bottom line is that there is no valuation adjustment in the Greaney retirement study. There wasn’t one on the morning of May 13, 2002, and there isn’t one today.
Rob
Evidence already answered that for you. You choose to ignore what everyone else says and you just demand people listen to you.
Whether people listen or not is for them to decide. But, when a post appears with my name on it, it is my job to see that it reflects my sincere views. And my sincere view is that the Greaney retirement study lacks a valuation adjustment.
Rob
As I said, you only want YOUR views heard. You don’t really want a discussion where others are heard.
I don’t want people saying that a 4 percent withdrawal is always safe. That’s fraud. We should all be opposed to fraud. I’m fine with people saying that a 4 percent withdrawal has always survived in the past. That’s an accurate statement. Do you appreciate the difference?
Rob
Every post you make is full of fraud. That is why you block posts that call out your fraud.
I’m bad as can be. That much is for sure.
Rob