Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
And we don’t think your posts are honest. Like I said, you can post what you want on your website and other board owners do not have to allow you to spread your lies on their websites.
It’s fraud. There were people at the Motley Fool board who were using the Greaney retirement study to plan their retirement. Do you think it would have been better if I had kept it zipped re the error in it (it lacks a valuation adjustment)?
If Greaney were honest, he would want people to know about the dangers of his study. If he cared about the people who make use of his study, he would want to correct the error before it hurts more people.
If we all were capable of thinking clearly about these matters, there wouldn’t be one dissenting voice to what I am saying here. The core issue in dispute in our discussions is whether investors are 100 percent rational (they would need to be for the market to be efficient, which was the assumption of the people who developed Buy-and-Hold) or highly emotional (they would need to be for irrational exuberance to be a real thing). The fact that there is even one person who believes that it is okay that Greaney failed to correct his study within 24 hours of the moment he learned of the error he made in it shows beyond any reasonable doubt that Shiller was right to posit that investors are at times highly emotional. We wouldn’t have seen any of the abusive or criminal behavior that we have seen from you Goons if investors were 100 percent rational.
I would permit honest posting re the peer-reviewed research. At every site. We’re obviously not there yet. But I think we are close.
Rob


I missed the part where Shiller said that Greaney made an error. Oh, wait. Shiller never said that. In fact, the only one making it up is Rob Bennett….the same guy that wants price fixing in the market.
Shiller showed that irrational exuberance is a thing. If that’s so, it’s s logical impossibility that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all times — it is lower when irrational exuberance is high because much of the money in people’s stock portfolio is rooted in nothing more than investor emotion and will disappear in time.
Rob