Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Here is a thread at bogleheads
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=440314
“Shiller PE now near 39 – 2nd highest ever” 603 posts
603 posts in a single thread, looks like Shiller can be discussed despite your claims.
It’s super that there’s a thread with 603 posts.
But what good is it doing, Evidence? Shiller’s research needs to be discussed on a daily basis. Not in one thread, in EVERY thread. If it were being discussed in every thread, you would never see a CAPE value anywhere near 39.
The CAPE value that applies today tells the tale. Many investors think it might be okay to “forget” to engage in valuation-based market timing (price discipline!). It’s the relentless promotion of the Buy-and-Hold strategy that has done that to us.
My sincere take.
Rob
That thread is now at 1133 comments and has gone into detail that would never appear in your writing.
Honest and open posting is great.
I think the dangers of market timing need to be discussed on every board and every thread, every single day. I think the dangers of being broke in your 60’s need to be discussed on every board and every single tread, every single day.
And yet the Greaney retirement study remains uncorrected.
The fact that the thread exists is wonderful. People are learning from it. But, if we really want to get that CAPE value down and avoid future Buy-and-Hold crises, we are going to need to put what we learn into practice. Getting the numbers right in retirement studies is pretty darn important. There should be 100 percent agreement that we need to get the numbers in retirement studies right. We need more of those sorts of threads and we need them at more sites and we need to be sure that everyone participating on them feels 100 percent free to post their sincere thoughts.
We are better off with that thread in existence than we would be without it. But we still have a lot of work to do. The first thing that we need to do is to give up this idea that there are two sides to this matter. We all want the same thing, We all need to know how to invest effectively for the long run. We are all on the same side.
My sincere take.
Rob
I think the dangers of market timing need to be discussed on every board and every thread, every single day. I think the dangers of being broke in your 60’s need to be discussed on every board and every single tread, every single day.
There are no dangers to valuation-based market timing so long as it is practiced in a reasonable way. Saying that there are dangers to engaging in price discipline when buying something is absurd. The vast majority of people practice price discipline with everything they buy other than stocks. Wade Pfau devoted 16 months of his life trying to locate some peer-reviewed research supporting the Buy-and-Hold claim that there might be an alternative universe in which everything works the opposite of how it has always worked here on good old Planet Earth and he came up empty-handed, The response of the Lindauerheads and Greaney Goons was to threaten to destroy his career if he continued doing honest work in this field. Gee, I wonder what’s going on here?
My best wishes.
Rob
You told us a long time ago to wait and see how things turned out. We waited and look what happened:
1. You got widely banned
2. Everyone in the community largely ignores you
3. You went completely broke
4. You failed to get a job
5. Your wife left you and now has moved on to some other guy
6. You lost your home
It is hard to see how it couldn’t have been any worse for you.
It would have been worse if I had betrayed my friends at the Motley Fool board by agreeing to say that I believe that the Greaney retirement study contains a valuation adjustment. I do not believe that and I would have hurt people that I had come to care about by lying about it.
My sincere take.
Rob