Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
I think my neighbor’s house is 50% too high in price. He needs to reduce his price by 50% so that I can buy it at that level.
If you know things about the house that would cause it to be valued at x and he is hiding these things from potential buyers so that he can obtain a price of 2x from them, that’s fraud.
If Greaney truly believed that his study contained a valuation adjustment, we never would have seen a single abusive post.
Rob
If Greaney’s work was an error and needed an adjustment, you wouldn’t be the only one saying it.
If there were any actual criminal acts, you wouldn’t have filed charges.
If you were right about how you think the stock market works, you wouldn’t be broke.
It’s not possible ever to learn anything new because, if the new understanding was valid knowledge, we would have known it all along.
There’s a joke about economists that there are two of them walking on the street and one stops to pick up a twenty-dollar bill and the other says: “don’t you understand that,, if there really were a twenty-dollar bill lying on the sidewalk, someone would have picked it up a long time ago?”
I believe that there’s a 20-trillion-dollar bill lying on the sidewalk and we would be wise to decide as a nation of people to pick it up.
No possible downside.
Rob
So you want us to believe you figured it out, but no one else has. Really?
Sorry, but you are mistaken.
Yes, there is downside. Look at your result. How is that not a horrible downside. None of us want to end up broke and divorced.
Fix your own problems. Stop trying to pull everyone else down with you.
I’m farther along at this moment in time than anyone else because I have been working these fields for 23 years now. But Shiller wasn’t awarded a Nobel prize because I am the only one who sees that his research is important. Thousands of people see that and we can turn the thousands into millions by opening every discussion board and blog on the internet to honest posting re the peer-reviewed research by the close of business today.
I vote for going for it. If Buy-and-Hold were a real thing, we never would have seen a single abusive post , much less any of the criminal stuff.
Rob
Only Rob Bennett is right, while all the experts are completely wrong. Rob Bennett is broke because of a mass conspiracy. Rob Bennett is divorced because of a mass conspiracy.
And today’s CAPE value is 38 because of a mass conspiracy.
Or could it be that we are all just born with a Get Rich Quick impulse and to overcome it we need to be able to talk about the dangers of Buy-and-Hold investment strategies on a daily basis?
You know what I think.
Rob
Consistently saving and investing over a 30 year period is a get rich quick scheme, but expecting a $500 million windfall for absolutely nothing is not.
You’re not saving and investing consistently if you are failing to engage in valuation-based market timing and thereby keeping your risk profile constant over time. If human beings were 100 percent rational creatures, there would never be any overvaluation and market timing would not be required. But that’s just not the world we live in. Irrational exuberance is a real thing. We have 44 years of peer-reviewed research showing that. So we all need to do what we can to encourage each other to engage in valuation-based market timing and thereby to keep irrational exuberance under control and prevent another horrible Buy-and-Hold Crisis.
A Buy-and-Hold Crisis helps absolutely no one. It’s a lose, lose, lose, lose, lose.
Rob
Of course, you are the self-appointed expert in this field and a legend in your own mind. Therefore, anything you say must be true.
“Of course, you are the self-appointed expert in this field and a legend in your own mind. Therefore, anything you say must be true.”
It’s what the people of the United States say that really matters. The fact that the people of the United States have adopted laws against the tactics employed by the Lindauerheads and the Greanry Goons to suppress discussion of the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research at every site tells the story of where things are headed in the long term.
My sincere take.
Rob
Well, the people of the United States don’t agree with you. If they did, you wouldn’t be in the situation you are in now.
“Well, the people of the United States don’t agree with you. If they did, you wouldn’t be in the situation you are in now.”
The fact that you have engaged in abusive posting and I have not tells us that the reality is just the opposite. I can make the case for Valuation-Informed Indexing anytime, any place, with confidence that I will prevail in time. You lack confidence that you can make the case for Buy-and-Hold at even a single site unless funny business is permitted.
Gee, I wonder how that will play out over time.
Rob