Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Uh oh……….the market is dropping and no one is blaming buy and hold…….only tariffs. That means you won’t be getting your $500 million windfall. There goes your plan “B”.
I’m blaming Buy-and-Hold. Announcement of the tariffs would have caused a price drop in any event. But when stocks are priced at two times their real value, the price drop is much larger.When all investors are practicing valuation-based market timing, both phony price increases and phony price drops will be eliminated, Permitting honest posting re the peer-reviewed research at every site will take away the thrill-ride aspect of the stock investing experience. I think that would be a very good thing.
Rob
Yep, everyone else is to blame and not you, Rob. In fact, here is what needs to happen:
Every website owner needs to let you have full access to post whatever you want on their website (but you don’t have to open up your website to others)
Greaney needs to lie and say that you are right and then change his report to fit your narrative.
Shiller needs to tell everyone that he was wrong when he said that you should to time the market and that everyone should be using the VII strategy.
Your ex-wife needs to tell everyone that she was wrong in wanting you to bring home an income to support the family because your need to spend all your time looking out for goons on the internet.
Wade Pfau needs to say he was wrong last year when he brought up how the numbers failed to work out for market timing.
Attorneys need to get in line to help you get your desired $500 million settlement payments.
The New York Times needs to run headline on the front page telling everyone that you are right and everyone else is wrong.
Did I get all that right? Did I miss any other demands?
Everyone else is not to blame. 10 percent of the population believes that valuations affect long-term returns. We saw that at every site at which discussions were held. And 90 percent of the Buy-and-Holders are fine with permitting honest posting re the peer-reviewed research. Most of them are not crazy about it. Their financial plans depend on Buy-and-Hold being a valid strategy. But they are okay with seeing it challenged. It’s only 10 percent of the Buy-and-Holders that engage in abusive and criminal behavior.
The site owners should all follow their own publishes rules.
I think Greaney should correct his study (it lacks a valuation adjustment). If his cognitive dissonance is so strong that he is not able to acknowledge the error, at the very least he should include language in the study nothing that it lacks a valuation adjustment and that he obviously would get very different results if he included one. That would put people on notice and possibly protect him from charges of fraud.
I have said on scores of occasions that we should invite Shiller to a discussion at the Bogleheads Forum at which we would explore his views on all of these matters in depth. We would of course need to make assurances that there would be no funny stuff going on. if we were all thinking clearly, there wouldn’t be one person who would not wan to enjoy that learning experience.
Wade should do something similar. He said one thing over and over and over again during the 16 months in which we were doing our research together. Then you Goons threatened to destroy his career if he continued to say that “Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!” We should agreed to drop all of the abusive stuff and ask him to explain his sincere views in detail.
The New York Times should certainly run a front-page story on the 44-year cover-up. Those who follow the peer-reviewed research have know for 44 years that valuations affect long-term returns. If that is so, half of the wealth invested in today’s stock market is just irrational exuberance. That is a major public policy concern. We all need to be working together to get the CAPE value down and to be sure that nothing like this every happens again. The 44-year cover-up is urgently important news.
What if stocks continue to perform in then future somewhat as they have always performed in the past? That’s the one that keeps me up at night, Anonymous. Economic productivity gains and irrational exuberance gains are not the same thing.
Rob
Yes, the rest of the world is wrong and only Rob Bennett is right.
Yes, 44 years of peer-reviewed research doesn’t matter. It’s “100 percent safe” to ignore it.
Not this boy, Anonymous.
Rob
You must be right since you have tens of millions in your retirement account, while all of us buy and holders are broke.
We don’t know how much you have because you don’t subtract for irrational exuberance when you report your numbers.
I wonder why.
Rob
We know how much you have: ZERO. You can multiply or divide by any number and it is still ZERO. With a dismal track record like that, do you still think you should be telling everyone that they are wrong and you are right?
Either the Greaney retirement study contains a valuation adjustment or it doesn’t. It shouldn’t take 23 years to figure that one out.
There are people at the Motley Fool board who were using the Greaney study for help in planning their retirement. I saw this with my own eyes. I was there.
Rob