“In the Only Actual Returns Sequence That Happened From 1929 Onwards, 4% Survived.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“In 70 percent of the return sequences that we have seen in the historical record, a 4 percent withdrawal failed for a retirement beginning in 1929.”

In the only actual returns sequence that happened from 1929 onwards, 4% survived.

70% of the simulated sequences in your calculator for a 1929 valuation 4% did not survive.

I will leave it as an exercise for the reader to decide whether to base their judgement on reality or your calculator.

Of course it is up to the individual investor to decide how to act on the information presented. The key is that both Buy-and-Holders and Valuation-Informed Indexers should always feel 100 percent free to make their case. There should never be any intimidation in the discussions.

Rob