Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“It’s pretty darn exciting, however. We now know how stock investing works.”
Don’t you mean how you think it will work? We still haven’t had that big crash you keep talking about.
I can only go by what I believe, Anonymous. You can go by what you believe. I need to go by what I believe.
We had a crash in late 2008. However, prices had recovered by late 2009. That wasn’t enough to change people’s minds.
If Shiller is right that valuations affect long-term returns, then there is going to be another one in the not too distant future. It would certainly be fair to say that prices have remained high for a longer period of time in recent years than they did at any earlier time in U.S. history.
I get the sense that you drae some sort of comfort from that reality. It scares me. Improper prices cause people to make poor financial planning choices. So we have seen more poor financial planning in recent years than at any earlier time in U.S. history. Yippie, you know? I would permit honest posting re the peer-reviewed research, marketing considerations be darned.
My best wishes to you.
Rob


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