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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Contact Rob
    • Rob’s Book
    • Don’t Sue Me!
  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
    • 10 Unconventional Money Saving Tips
    • Why Your Money or Your Life Rocked the World
    • This Book Saves Marriages — The Complete Tightwad Gazette
    • How to Start Saving Money
  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work
    • About Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • The Stock-Return Predictor
    • The Retirement Risk Evaluator
    • The Investor’s Scenario Surfer
    • The Investment Strategy Tester
    • The Returns Sequence Reality Checker
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

Valuation-Informed Indexing #160 — The Common Theme In Our Saving and Investing Troubles

October 25, 2013 by Rob

I’ve posted Entry #160 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Common Theme in Our Saving and Investing Troubles.

Juicy Excerpt: In both cases, the big problem is that we humans focus too much on the short-term. We want to succeed at both saving and investing. But we give excessive weight to short-term feedback that misleads and discourages us.

Filed Under: VII Column

“Why Weren’t Charges Filed Against People Who Hung Blacks from Trees in the Days of Segregation in the South? People Feel That ‘You Can’t Fight City Hall.’ People Rationalize That “It’s Not My Fight.’ It’s Everyone’s Fight. We All Work in the Same Economy.”

October 24, 2013 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to a blog entry at this site:

If they have done what you have said and you can identify them, then why have charges and/ or lawsuits not been filed?

Why weren’t charges filed against people who hung blacks from trees in the days of segregation in the South, Mr. Rational?

People feel “you can’t fight City Hall.” People rationalize that “it’s not my fight.”

It’s everyone’s fight.

We all work in the same economy. We all need to see it recover its health if we are to achieve our hopes to be able to retire someday.

The Buy-and-Hold Mafia is ruthless. The more the evidence mounts that Shiller is right, the more vicious become the tactics that are used to keep the millions of middle-class investors who need to know how dangerous Buy-and-Hold is from learning what the last 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research says on the subject.

When a few patriots work up the courage to stand up to the Mafia, lots of others will come forward. That will bring on a great learning experience for many and then even more will come forward. And then more. And then more.

And then your prison sentence will begin.

Live by bull market emotions, die by bear market emotions.

The good news is — There will be no more bull markets and bear markets once we open the internet up to honest posting. We have grown beyond them. And we have our Buy-and-Hold friends, who taught us the value of rooting our strategies in the peer-reviewed academic research, to thank for that.

Hang in there, man.

Rob

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

“The Members of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia Follow the Advice They Offer to Others; They Are Not Dishonest in That Respect”

October 23, 2013 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a blog entry at this site:

The “buy and hold mafia” blocks your success at every turn. It sends death threats to your millions of followers to keep them from commenting here, and has gotten away with all this for years. Not one arrest. That is one smart mafia. Yet they can’t stop your daily rants against them. That is one stupid mafia.

I agree with your suggestion that the members of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia are both very smart and very stupid, X Files.

I’ve never met a dumb Buy-and-Holder. They are aces in the I.Q. department. All of them. They possess far more firepower than what is needed to take on the job they have assigned themselves.

So far, so good.

What has tripped them up is that intellectual firepower can be used to reason or to rationalize. How intellectual firepower is employed depends on the human will. If our wills tells us that we don’t want to know the answer to a problem, it is the most intellectually skilled among us who do the best job of persuading themselves that they don’t know the answer.

The Buy-and-Hold Mafia isn’t just destroying the lives of millions of middle-class investors. It is destroying the lives of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia at the same time. The members of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia follow the advice they offer to others; they are not dishonest in that respect.

It’s all very tragic.

And very human.

I look forward to the day when I have the intellectual firepower and determination of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia helping me spread the word about Valuation-Informed Indexing, X Files. I could use some strong and hard-working troops fighting on my side!

Don’t let the bad guys get you down, man.

Rob the General Surrounded on All Fours Sides by “Enemies” Who Want All the Same Things He Wants

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

Valuation-Informed Indexing #159 — The Same P/E10 Level Can Mean Different Things in Different Circumstances

October 22, 2013 by Rob

I’ve posted Entry #159 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Same P/E10 Level Can Mean Different Things in Different Circumstances.

Juicy Excerpt: In the late 1980s and early 1990s, we were on our way from a P/E10 of 8 to a P/E10 of 44. We certainly had no way of knowing at the time that we would end up at 44. We had never gone that high before. But we knew that the P/E10 level was likely to continue going up after hitting 18 even if for a few months it went below that market. Never once in U.S. history has the P/E level peaked at 18. It usually peaks at 25 or 26. So the odds were strong at the time that the long-term direction of prices was downward.

Just the opposite was the case when we hit 18 in early 2009. The P/E10 value peaked at 44 in 2000 and started its way downward. Never in U.S. history have valuation levels began working their way up again on a long-term basis without first hitting 7 or 8. So the 18 that we saw in 2009 was an 18 on the way to becoming a 7 rather than an 18 on the way to becoming a 25. That makes all the difference in the world.

Filed Under: VII Column

Valuation-Informed Indexing #158 — Does P/E10 Do a Better Job of Making Return Predictions When Valuations Are at Extreme Levels?

October 21, 2013 by Rob

I’ve posted Entry #158 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. it’s called Does P/E10 Do a Better Job of Making Return Predictions When Valuations Are at Extreme Levels?

Juicy Excerpt: Resistance to this idea is resistance to logic. Many investors don’t like to hear things said so bluntly. But that’s an obvious logical implication of the finding that valuations affect long-term returns. We have in the past 10 years grown more accepting of the idea that valuations matter. As more time passes, I believe that we will become more accepting that valuations matter in all circumstances, not just some.

Filed Under: VII Column

Valuation-Informed Indexing #157 — Google’s Panda/Penguin Update Shows Us Where Opinion on Buy-and-Hold Is Headed

October 18, 2013 by Rob

I’ve posted Entry #157 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Google’s Panda/Penguin Update Shows Us Where Opinion on Buy-and-Hold Is Headed.

Juicy Excerpt: The company didn’t know that Google was going to change the rules. It obviously didn’t intend for these businesses to fail. The people with the failed businesses knew that some of the strategies they were employing were dubious. But now they are mad. Not a little mad. Very mad.

 

Filed Under: VII Column

“There Will Be Lawsuits. There Will Be Prison Sentences. Angry People Act in Angry Ways. How Do We Stop People From Getting So Angry? We Tell Them the Truth!”

October 17, 2013 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:

Did you sleep through the 53% crash that hit bottom in 2009? Where were the buy-and-hold lawsuits? Why isn’t John Bogle in prison? And most importantly, where is your multi-million dollar judgement?

These are intelligent questions.

We are halfway through a PROCESS.

At the high, we were at a P/E10 of 44. At the low, we are always at a P/E10 of 8. We are now in the low 20s. That’s a big change from 44. But it is another big change going to 8. We are halfway through the process.

No one got sued in the 2008 drop. That’s so. But we saw VERY BIG CHANGES with that drop. The level of emotionalism in the market diminished dramatically. I was effectively banned at just about every personal finance blog prior to 2008. Since that drop, I have had Guest Blog Entries posted at scores of places that wouldn’t give me the time of day pre-2008. We have already seen huge changes.

We have not yet seen the amount of change needed to get people sent to prison. That much is so. But why would you think that is not going to happen following the drop to 8?

Please consider what a drop to 8 means. It means that EVERYONE sells. You can’t get to 8 without massive, insane selling. When the P/E10 is 8, stocks are selling at half of their real value. Please consider what that signifies. We all want to be able to retire. To have a P/E10 of 8 means that we are deliberately setting the price of our portfolios at HALF of their true value. Why would anyone do that?

The answer is — There is no rational answer to that question. No one would choose to do such an insane thing. It will happen because, following the next crash, investors will no longer be sane. They will be mad. They will be furious. They will be out for blood.

That’s why there will be lawsuits. That’s why there will be congressional hearings. That’s why there will be prison sentences.

I am not advocating these things. I am saying that these things will evidence themselves. Angry people act in angry ways.

The question we all should be asking ourselves is — How do we stop people from getting so angry?

The answer to that one is — We tell them the truth!

And there is not one of us, including the great (no sarcasm intended) Jack Bogle who possesses all truth within him. To tell the truth, we must permit honest posting by EVERYONE, Valuation-Informed Indexers and Buy-and-Holders alike.

That’s why our system is set up the way it is. That’s why every board and blog on the internet has published rules prohibiting the tactics that have been employed by the Lindaurheads and the Greaney Goons. We don’t want people to get so carried away with their personal beliefs that they end up committing acts that down the road get them thrown in prison.

You Goons have committed the felonies. So I cannot say it is wrong for you to be imprisoned. But I WILL say that you are not the only ones who did wrong things. Every site owner who failed to ban you when you committed felonies did wrong as well. You Goons deserved better. You Goons deserved journalists and site owners and investing experts and policymakers who would call you out on your garbage. You didn’t get that. For that, we all should be ashamed.

We didn’t see prison sentences following the last crash. But we did see a lot of political turmoil. And we did see a lot of opening of minds to the idea that Buy-and-Hold is garbage. And we HAVE seen congressional hearings at the end of other secular bear markets (We didn’t see prison sentences but we did not have 32 years of peer-reviewed research showing that Buy-and-Hold can never work for even a single long-term investor at the end of earlier secular bear markets — that’s a big change from a legal standpoint).

We are working our way through a process. It is to every single citizen’s benefit that we limit the prison sentences of our Buy-and-Hold friends to the extent possible. We do that by opening every board and blog to honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics. We are the luckiest generation of investors that ever lived. We are the first generation that has access to peer-reviewed academic research showing us how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent. It is by telling people how to do that that we appease their anger. Appeasing the anger of the millions of middle-class people whose lives have been destroyed through the reckless and relentless and ruthless promotion of Buy-and-Hold investing strategies should be job #1 of every person who cares about the future of our economic and political system.

My warmest wishes to you and yours.

Rob, the Fellow Who Knows That He Is Part of the Luckiest Generation of Investors Who Ever Walked Planet Earth

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

“You Believe What You Say Above in One Sense. You Have Convinced Yourself That There Is a Chance That You Will Not Go to Prison. But You Lack Confidence in That Belief. You Show This With Every Post.”

October 16, 2013 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment recently put to another blog entry at this site:

The same thing that happened after the last two price crashes.

That probably is what you really do believe. I can give you that much.

I do not believe that.

If you believe that the price of stocks matters (there is now 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research showing this to be so), then the worst possible thing that could happen is that large numbers of investors could come to believe that price doesn’t matter. That’s what has happened. We did not have Shiller’s research when the Buy-and-Hold idea was developed. And the people who promoted Buy-and-Hold were too proud to acknowledge their mistake when it was uncovered. So we pushed stock prices to levels never seen before in U.S. history.

Every time we have seen a P/E10 of 25, we have seen an economic crisis. The one time we touched 33, we saw a Great Depression. This time we hit 44. We are looking at a Great Depression of twice the length and twice the depth of the one that began in 1929.

It’s going to be written up in all the papers!

The reason why everyone is not working to avert it today is that most think as you do, that stock price changes just sort of happen and that you deal with them the best you can and move on. Shiller’s research (confirmed by 32 years of follow-up research) shows that that is not how it works. It is the Buy-and-Hold “idea” (that investors don’t need to consider price when setting their allocations) that causes price crashes and economic crises. We would all know this today given the 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research showing it to be so but for the brutal and criminal acts employed by the Buy-and-Hold Mafia to keep millions of middle-class investors from learning what the research really says.

You “believe” what you say above in one sense. You have convinced yourself that there is a chance that you will not go to prison for your many acts of financial fraud (a felony). I can give you that much.

But you lack confidence in this belief. You show this with every post you put forward. If you had confidence, you would not favor the use of death threats and you would not favor the use of board bannings and you would not favor the use of tens of thousands of acts of defamation and you would not favor the use of threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. You are worried. Actions speak louder than words.

I wish you well. That’s about all that I can think of to say to someone in your position. If there ever comes a time when we can work together to get your prison sentence shortened a bit, I hope you will contact me. I would be happy to do what I can do.

Take care, man.

Rob the Confident (Or So He Tells Himself!)

Filed Under: Lindauer/Greaney Goons

“Take a Look at the E-Mails That Wade Pfau Sent Me During the 16 Months When We Were Co-Authoring the Most Important Research Published in This Field in Over 30 Years. Wade Has a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton. Yet He Learned New and Important and True (he Checked) Things From Me on an Almost Daily Basis. How Many Things Has Jack Bogle Ever Said That Were Important and True and Yet Not Known by People Who Had Ph.D.s?”

October 15, 2013 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a discussion being held at the Goon Central board.

An earlier comment of mine stated that: “I have had more than one e-mail recipient tell me that he or she is going to change the course that he or she teaches as a result of what he or she learned from reading my e-mail and then corresponding with me about it. I think it would be fair to say that Jack Bogle has never received a response of that nature to one of his e-mails.” Drip Guy quoted that response and stated: “With all that unfounded and bizarre hubris stuffed into Rob’s belly, one wonders how there is any room for anything else. A very sick man.” I wrote the words set forth below in response to Drip Guy’s comment.

Please read the comments at the “People Are Tallking” section of my site, Drip Guy.
Then please show me some documentation that Jack has ever heard similar things said about him and his work.

Jack is a giant. I personally rank him as the second most important investing analyst alive today (I rank Shiller first). But Jack has never heard people say about his work the things that I have heard numerous people say about my work.

Take a look at the e-mails that Wade Pfau sent me during the 16 months when we were co-authoring the most important research published in this field in over 30 years. Wade had a Ph.D. from Princeton. Yet he learned important and true (he checked!) things from me on an almost daily basis. How many things has Jack Bogle ever said that were important and true and yet not known by people who had Ph.D.s? The two cases are not even roughly comparable.

I don’t say that this means that I have an IQ. of 150. It doesn’t.

The reason why I am 11 years ahead of Jack and all other Buy-and-Holders is that Jack is still trying to “defend” Buy-and-Hold in the Year 2013 while I gave up on the smelly Get Rich Quick garbage on the night of August 27, 2002, when Greaney threatened to kill my wife and children if I continued to post honestly on safe withdrawal rates and 200 Buy-and-Holders gave the thumbs-up to his post. Any investing strategy that makes large numbers of people so emotional that they give the thumbs-up to death threats is an investing strategy that I want no association with. I think it is fair to say that any investing strategy that causes 200 people to give the thumbs-up to death threats is an investing strategy that is 100 percent emotion and that is supported by precisely zero peer-reviewed academic studies (Wade Pfau of course confirmed that this is indeed the case).

It ain’t hubris if it is documented, Drip Guy. It is a documented fact that I got the safe withdrawal rate right TEN YEARS before the Wall Street Journal. Which means that I got the safe withdrawal rate right MORE THAN 10 YEARS before Old Saint Jack. Jack has not demanded corrections in the Old School SWR studies TO THIS DAY. I have, Drip Guy. I have.

My stuff is real. Jack’s smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage is not.

Not today.

It ONCE was real. In the days before Shiller’s “revoltionary” (his word) research, Buy-and-Hold was real.

But not today.

The way it works in scientific endeavors is that the day your stuff is discredited by the RESEARCH is the day you have to go back to the drawing board and come up with something that fits the data.

Valuation-Informed Indexing is Buy-and-Hold fixed to fit the data.

Your death threats cannot change that. Your board bannings cannot change that. Your tens of thousands of acts of defamation cannot change that. Your threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs cannot change that.

All that your criminal acts of financial fraud can do is to lengthen your prison sentence.

The way it is, my long-time abusive-posting friend.

I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person.

Rob the Vindicated (1,000 Times Over and in a 100 Percent Documented Way)

Filed Under: John Bogle & VII

“I Speak Honestly All the Time re Stock Investing, No? What Price Have I Paid? I Have Not Been Sued by Jack Bogle and His Rich, Powerful Friends. I Am Not in Prison. What Power Do These People Really Possess Anymore?”

October 14, 2013 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:

Really, what do you think you’re accomplishing?

Buy-and-Hold was not always a horrible thing, Goon. It was once a truly wonderful thing. It got us halfway to where we need to be to change stock investing forever in a very, very, very positive way. Our economic future is bright indeed.

There is one problem. Had Robert Shiller published his “revolutionary” (his word) research in 1971 instead of 1981, we would be in the Garden of Paradise today. There never would have been any Buy-and-Hold. The name of the famous book would have been “A Valuation-Informed Walk Down Wall Street.” It didn’t happen that way. Buy-and-Hold, the mistaken and terribly dangerous approach, came first. The research-based approach that works in the real world — Valuation-Informed Indexing — came along a few years later.

The people who work in this field are EXTREMELY proud people. And they are wealthy and powerful and well-connected people. They don’t take to the idea of admitting mistakes. So, for 32 years now, we have been playing a stupid game where “experts” act as if they think Buy-and-Hold might end up working for one or two long-term investors when they know from reading the peer-reviewed academic research in this field that there is precisely zero chance of that happening. They know that Buy-and-Hold has caused an economic crisis every time the Wall Street Con Men have touted it and they know that the stock market affects more lives today than it ever did before (millions of middle-class people now depend on it to finance their retirements). So this economic crisis is going to be far worse than any earlier one. We are looking at a Second Great Depression that will be twice as long and twice as deep as the first one.

Just about everyone in the field knows this on at least some level of consciousness. And of course that means that they want to speak out and get us out of the economic crisis and bring us to the greatest period of economic growth in our history. But everyone in this field also knows something else. Telling the truth about what the last 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research says is a career-ender. Those who don’t want the word getting out will all act in concert to destroy anyone who gets it in his or her head to tell the truth to the millions of middle-class investors who need to hear it. There’s a lot of money to be made in this field. So most go along.

But most have consciences. So they drop lots of hints. Just about everybody drops hints, including those who push Buy-and-Hold the most strongly in their usual public comments. Jack Bogle drops hints that Buy-and-Hold is the biggest pile of smelly garbage he has ever come across. That’s why I was able to learn from Jack why the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies are so off the mark. Scott Burns drops hints. That’s why his first reaction when I told him that the Old School studies get the numbers wrong was to write me an e-mail saying “you’re right, Rob” and to ask me my telephone number so that he could write an article on what I told him. Wade Pfau drops hints. That’s why his reaction when he saw that 140 years of historical data supports Valuation-Informed Indexing and zero supports Buy-and-Hold was to imagine himself getting published in the Journal of Finance and winning the Nobel Prize in Economics. This was the breakthrough he had dreamed about discovering since he was a boy.

Still, all of these people are afraid. They have seen the brutality of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia. They know that it does not feel bound by the laws of the United States and is capable of just about anything. They know that a cornered animal is a dangerous animal and that Buy-and-Hold, with 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research showing that there is precisely zero chance that it could ever work for a single investor, is the most cornered animal there has ever been.

So they rationalize. They drop their little hints. That eases their consciences. But they are careful not to make the Buy-and-Hold Mafia angry. As you Goons would put it, they watch not what they say but how they say it. The Mafia doesn’t like it when people say that Buy-and-Hold doesn’t work. So they don’t say that. They say lot of things that lead inevitably to that conclusion. But they don’t say the words that would mean the end of Buy-and-Hold if they were spoken firmly and clearly and publicly and proudly and without compromise. I do that sort of thing all the time. That’s what makes me different.

What do I hope to accomplish? I hope to give encouragement to those on the verge of telling the truth and bringing on the collapse of this poisonous investing strategy.

I give people numbers. I give people data. I give people calculators. I give people podcasts. I give people research. I give people comments from others in the field. I give people quotes from you Goons. I give people everything they need to understand how the con works and why it is destroying us and how great our future will be together if a few of us work up the courage to use our Constitutionally protected right to speak out honestly on what the Wall Street Con Men have done to our country with their relentless and reckless and ruthless promotion of the purest and most dangerous Get Rich Quick scheme ever concocted by the human mind.

Most of all, I give people an example.

I don’t ever speak in an unbalanced way about the Buy-and-Holders. I don’t deny their great accomplishments. I always note that they are good and smart and hard-working people. So I show people that you don’t need to become a Goon yourself to fight the Goons. A person can defend his country from this most brutal attack on it and maintain his or her dignity while doing so, despite the ugliness and smelliness of the tactics employed on a daily basis by you Goons.

And I show people that those who work up the courage to speak out will not be paying a price for doing so much longer.

I speak honestly all the time re stock investing, no? What price have I paid? I have not been sued by Jack Bogle and his rich, powerful friends. I am not in prison. What power do these people really possess anymore? After the next price crash, they will have no power whatsoever. “Buy-and-Hold” will be a dirty phrase. People will be running from it as fast as their little legs can carry them. They can come here and read the story of someone who began running on the night of August 27, 2002, the night that John Greaney threatened to kill my wife and children if I continued to “cross” him by posting honestly on the SWR matter.

We will rebuild our country, Goon. The Goons lose on the last page. The story is in the process of playing out. There is only one possible way that it can play out, given what the last 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research shows us. So it will play out that way. Our nation will enter the greatest period of economic growth in its history. A group of patriots will take us there. And you Goons will end up serving long prison terms.

And I and the other patriots will retain our humanity until the last day. I will see you carried off to prison, my old friend. But never will I delight in it. Until the last moment, I will work to persuade you to do what you need to do to have your prison sentence shortened a bit.

Why?

Because that’s what the humans do.

We are not just Get Rich Quick savages. We have good within us.

That’s what you forgot when you signed up with Mel Lindauer and John Greaney.

I naturally wish you all good things, my long-term Goon friend.

Rob the Human

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

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Rob on the Internet

  • Rob's Weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing Column at the Value Walk Site.

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  • Rob's Daily Caller Articles: (1) Can We Handle the Truth About Stock Investing?; (2) How We Invest Is a Political Question; (3) The Economic Crisis Is Trying to Tell Us Something (and We're Not Listening); (4) Facts Don't Matter; (5) Going Google Stupid; (6) How Much Transparency Can We Handle?; (7) Confessions of an Internet Troll; (8) Conservatives Fall Into a Trap by Blaming Obama for the Bad Economy; (9) Meet the New Media, Same as the Old Media; and (10) How Restoring Honor Will End the Economic Crisis

  • Humble Money Experts Are the Best Money Experts, (Rob's Article in the Integrative Advisor, the Journal of the Association for Integrative Financial and Life Planning)

  • Articles on the Return Predictor, the RIsk Evaluator, the Scenario Surfer and the Strategy Tester

  • The Myth of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

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  • What's the Best Age at Which to Experience a Stock Crash? and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Guest Blog Entry Compares Our Effort to Open the Internet to Honest Posting on Stock Investing with the Civil Rights Struggle of the Early 1960s

  • Our Monster Thread (153 Comments!) on Whether Bill Bengen Should Correct His Retirement Study Now That He Acknowledges the Errors He Made In It

  • Google Search Results for the Term "Valuation-Informed Indexing"
  • Favorite RobCasts

    • Bogle and Valuations

    • When Stock Losses Are True Losses and When They Are Not

    • There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?

    • Risk Tolerance in the Real World

    • Cash Is a Strategic Asset Class

    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies

    • Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)

    • Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In

    • Low Stock Prices Are Better Than High Stock Prices

    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

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