A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

“I Think I Should be Paid Millions for Being a Professional Actor. Unfortunately, No One Wants to Pay Me for Being an Actor. As Such, I Found Work That I Could Do That People Said They Would Be Willing to Pay Me for Doing. You Need to Do the Same.”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

I think I should be paid millions for being a professional actor.  Unfortunately, no one wants to pay me for being an actor.  As such, I found work that I could do that people said they would be willing to pay me for doing.  You need to do the same.

The amount of interest that I have seen in Valuation-Informed Indexing during the first 23 years of discussion shows me that there is a lot of money to be made with it, Anonymous. 10 percent of the population of investors is millions of people!

Yes, you Goons have been able to stop me and others from making money with it with your insanely abusive behavior. I see that as desperation tactics. If you had genuine confidence in Buy-and-Hold, you would welcome challenges to it. If even you Goons don’t really believe in it on a deep level, what does that say?

I think it says that we need to explore other possibilities. The first place to look for other possibilities is the peer-reviewed research, in my view,

Please take good care.

Rob

“When People Can Earn as Much Promoting Research-Based Strategies as They Can Promoting the Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold Stuff, the World Will Be a Better Place for All of Us.”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, HAVE read your stories.  You have even bragged as such.  Despite all those prolific posts, no one sitting here offering you even one dime.  No one has for over 2 decades.

We need to change that, Anonymous. When people can earn as much promoting research-based strategies as they can promoting the Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold stuff, the world will be a better place for all of us.

Where i’m coming from.

Rob

“I Pointed Out the Error in the Greaney Retirement Study on the Morning of May 13, 2002 (It Lacks a Valuation Adjustment). It Hasn’t Been Corrected to This Day, Please Explain.”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

You said suppression.  Now you say disrupt.  To you, disagreeing is disruption.  Or when we point out the failure in your predictions is also disruption.  Or when we push back on you calling Jack Bogle a conman as being disruption.  Or when we tell you that is was a mistake to quit your job when you only had $400k in savings…..that is disruption as well.

How about death threats? Is that disruption?

How about demands for unjustified board bannings?

How about acts of extortion aimed at intimidation of academic researchers?

I pointed out the error in the Greaney retirement study on the morning of May 13, 2002 (it lacks a valuation adjustment). It hasn’t been corrected to this day, Please explain.

Rob

“We All Have a Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold Urge Residing Within Us. It’s Been Causing Bull Markets and Economic Collapses So Long As There Has Been a Stock Market.”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

How can any of us be suppressing information.  We don’t run any of these boards.  Instead, it seems YOU are suppressing information.  Look at how many posts you have blocked.  You are clearly afraid of having facts on your board because it doesn’t not support your narrative.

You don’t run the boards. But you disrupt the conversations held at them with abusive posting. We all have a Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold urge residing within us. It’s been causing bull markets and economic collapses so long as there has been a stock market. So people start out with sympathy for the Buy-and-Hold case. And you make it unpleasant for them to ask the questions that they need to ask. And the Normals don’t possess one-tenth of the determination to participate in the discussions as you possess to stomp them out. So we are where we are.

As a nation of people, we are making progress. We are close. We have 44 years of peer-reviewed research showing that valuations affect long-term returns. I think we will eventually make it to the other side and no one is going to want to return to the Buy-and-Hold says once we do. We’ll see.

My best wishes.

Rob

“The Thing That a Jury Will Look At in Determining the Length of a Prison Sentence Is Whether There Was an Intent to Suppress Discussion of the Far-Reaching How-To Implications of the Last 44 Years of Peer-Reviewed Research.”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Because disagreeing with Rob Bennett is considered abusive posting. Got it.

We all need to just keep it zipped.

The thing that a jury will look at in determining the length of a prison sentence is whether there was an intent to suppress discussion of the far-reaching how-to implications of the last 44 years of peer-reviewed research.

Rob

“Most People Need the Discipline to Practice Valuation-Based Market Timing. That IS Hard. It Goes Against Human Nature.”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

I guess I need to read more.  Honest posting?  I am not sure what you mean by that, but people are able to post what they want, right?  Also, we do seem to already know about failed retirements and it seems to me that it is common knowledge that our collective savings rate is pathetic.  It just comes down to spending less than you make, consistent investing and avoiding debt.  The concept is not hard, but most people lack the discipline to do that.

Most people need the discipline to practice valuation-based market timing, Mike. That IS hard. It goes against human nature. The history of the stock market shows what happens when people fail to practice price discipline when buying stocks. It’s a tragic story.\

Rob

“Can Someone Tell Me What the Primary Mission Is of This Website?”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

I am a bit lost here.  Can someone tell me what the primary mission is of this website?

It’s to get every discussion board and blog on the internet opened to honest posting re the last 44 years of peer-reviewed research. Shiller published research in 1981 showing that valuations affect long-term returns. So investors who want to keep their risk profile constant over time (to Stay the Course in a meaningful way) are 100 percent required to practice valuation-based market timing.

Today’s CAPE value is 34. That’s scary. That’s slightly higher than the CAPE value that caused the Great Depression. We should all be working together to get that CAPE value down (of course, we never should have let it get that high in the first place. But the Buy-and-Holders get hostile when people point out the need for valuation-based market timing.

In the event that the stock market continues to perform in the future somewhat as it always has in the past, we will be seeing another Buy-and-Hold Crisis in the not-too-distant future. That will likely translate into millions of failed retirements, hundreds of thousands of business failures and millions of workers getting thrown out of their jobs. All of that awful stuff is optional today. If we permitted honest posting at every site, investors would know to lower their stock allocation at bit when prices got crazy high. The stock sales would pull prices back to reasonable levels. Stock prices are self-regulating when investors are aware of what the research shows.

But it doesn’t happen by magic. We all carry a Get Rich Quick urge within us. We all want bull markets to come consequence-free. We all want to believe in Buy-and-Hold. We all want to believe that our stock portfolio is really worth the number reported on our portfolio statement. If we were thinking clearly, we would adjust for the effect of irrational exuberance. At today’s CAPE, that would mean reducing the value of the portfolio by 50 percent.

Rob

“Improper Prices Cause People to Make Poor Financial Planning Choices. So We Have Seen More Poor Financial Planning in Recent Years Than at Any Earlier Time in U.S. History,.”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“It’s pretty darn exciting, however. We now know how stock investing works.”

Don’t you mean how you think it will work? We still haven’t had that big crash you keep talking about.

I can only go by what I believe, Anonymous. You can go by what you believe. I need to go by what I believe.

We had a crash in late 2008. However, prices had recovered by late 2009. That wasn’t enough to change people’s minds.

If Shiller is right that valuations affect long-term returns, then there is going to be another one in the not too distant future. It would certainly be fair to say that prices have remained high for a longer period of time in recent years than they did at any earlier time in U.S. history.

I get the sense that you drae some sort of comfort from that reality. It scares me. Improper prices cause people to make poor financial planning choices. So we have seen more poor financial planning in recent years than at any earlier time in U.S. history. Yippie, you know? I would permit honest posting re the peer-reviewed research, marketing considerations be darned.

My best wishes to you.

Rob

“It’s a Painful Experience to Tell the Truth About Stock Investing. That’s Why So Few Do It.”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

You said you were unable to finish your book and get a job due to emotions.  I guess that means you don’t like what the research really says.

What has affected me is the feeling of being an outcast. It’s a very painful thing.

What Shiller showed is just common sense. OF COURSE valuations affect long-term returns! How else could it be.

But Shiller merited his Nobel prize for confirming that what common sense says must be so really is so. Because we really, really, really don’t want to believe that. We want Get Rich Quick strategies to work. We want irrational exuberance gains to be real. We love adviser who push Buy-and-Hold and we hate people who remind us of what the research says.

It’s a painful experience to tell the truth about stock investing. That’s why so few do it.

The more sites there are that permit honest posting re the research, the easier it will be to tell the truth and the sooner we all will be able to achieve financial independence. That’s why I feel so strongly that we need to move in that direction. But it hasn’t been easy being a pioneer. It’s an important story to tell. But it hasn’t been a fun experience trying to tell it.

Rob

“The Buy-and-Holders Are the Majority and It’s Not Even a Close Call. But You Goons Are Outliers.”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Who is this “90 percent”? Got a link?

Why do you think it is that every site at which I have participated has published rules prohibiting the tactics that we have seen employed by you Goons. You Goons are a small minority. T

The Buy-and-Holders are the majority and it’s not even a close call. But you Goons are outliers.

Rob