Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

And not one of those comments are backed up with any facts.  Look at how that has worked out for you.

The shift from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is the biggest advance in the history of personal finance. Are you joking?

That advance benefits everyone alive in the country that I love. You are pointing out that I have not yet seen personal benefits. I haven’t. But what happens to my country affects me. So I need my country to survive and to thrive. And the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research shows that that is not possible if we don’t all pull together and put all investors on notice as to the critical importance of market timing, I have a funny feeling that, once the word gets out and we are all living better and richer lives in about 50 different ways, that Old Farmer Hocus will be seeing plenty of personal benefits from all this.

So I get to do very well while also doing great good. That’s a pretty darn good combination. Yes?

And look at how it has worked out for you. I think it would be fair to say that you are looking forward to a long prison sentence in the days following the next price crash. Holy moly!

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

We look at outcomes to see as to what was right and what was wrong.  As noted by the discussion from the forum noted in the link, Shiller, just like you, has been wrong much more frequently than he has been right.  That is just a factual observation.

Did you adjust the value of stocks downward by 60 percent to reflect the effect of irrational exuberance in determining the “outcomes” that apply today? If you failed to do that, then you made the same mistake that Greaney made in his retirement study, you failed to take the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research into consideration when performing your calculations.

Is it just a “factual observation” that the sun revolves around the earth? Ignore many years of scientific research and you can get your mind to a place where that does indeed appear to be a “factual observation.” Take the research into consideration and you of course arrive at very different “factual observations.”

I believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“The difference is that all of the ideas will be advanced in one place. ”

Which can be easily done by creating a single page with links to every point you want to make. Much easier and more focused versus a book.

No.

The 40-year ban on discussion of Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research has hurt millions of people in very serious ways. We need to come to terms as a society of people with what we have done as a society of people. To come to terms with this, we need to work through each aspect of the question carefully and completely. That takes a book-length treatment of the story.

In ordinary circumstances, the words “Valuations affect long-term returns” should have been enough to persuade every person on the planet that there is precisely zero chance that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all valuation levels. Things obviously did not play out that way, If we are to be certain that we will never need to go through something like this again, we need to know why. There’s not a one-page answer to that one. That one is going to take 150,000 words to answer properly.

We all need to come to terms with what has happened so that we can all move on to better things. There are no shortcuts. It’s taking shortcuts that got us to where we are today, with a CAPE level in the mid-30s. Not this boy, you know? I intend to do all that it is in my power to do to take us all to a far better place. I intend to give it my very best shot. I can do no more and I can do no less.

My best and warmest wishes to you.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

The problem is that us normal people believe that the word “honest” also means “truthful”.  You obviously have a different definition and that is why you are banned.

I don’t believe that any of us has sole possession of the truth. I believe that, if we all post honestly, the truth will reveal itself over time.

There is a process to learning the truth over time. Part of the process is permitting challenges to things that were once widely believed to be the truth.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

There are no victims.  We each have a personal responsibility in saving and investing for our retirement.  We have all the information that we need at our finger tips.  If your retirement fails, then it is your own fault.  End of story.

We do not have all the information at our fingertips.

When I put forward my famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002, there were numerous people who thanked me for starting the most exciting discussion in the history of the Retire Early board. If people had all of the information contained in that post at their fingertips all along, what were they thanking me for? They hadn’t had the information contained in that post at their fingertips all along. I pointed out that the Greaney retirement study lacked a valuation adjustment. That was something new to think about that many people at that board had not considered.

When people considered that point, they lost confidence in the study. That was why Greaney got so upset. He wanted to maintain confidence in the study. And the point that I was making was undermining confidence in the study. Each time that someone points out the error at the root of the Buy-and-Hold project, it helps people to think more clearly about how stock investing works in the real world. It’s new information, valuable information.

There was a day when people did not know that smoking causes cancer. Research was published showing that it does, just like the research that Shiller published showing that valuations affect long-term returns. The tobacco companies went nuts. They threatened people who told people about the harm done by smoking, just as you Goons have threatened me for telling people about the error in the Greaney retirement study in particular and about the error in the Buy-and-Hold strategy in general. The con doesn’t work if people become aware of it. So the Buy-and-Holders have to keep the error hushed up. But I want to talk about it. I want to help people. A lot of the people who were being misled by Greaney had become friends of mine over the years.

If everyone has all the information at their fingertips, why do we even have academic researchers? Why not do away with them if we already know everything there is to know? We have researchers because we want to continue learning new stuff. Shiller’s research has taught us the most important thing that we have ever learned about stock investing — that market timing is always 100 percent required, that it is the secret to successful long-term stock investing. I want to spread the word all across the internet.

If all retirement failure are solely the fault of the person whose retirement failed. why do we have laws against fraud and against extortion? Those laws suggest that there are lines that those working investment cons should not be permitted to cross, that there is a point at which the retirement failure becomes the responsibility of the person working the con. I believe that those laws are good and necessary laws.

My best and warmest wishes to you and yours.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

You have often said that we have to wait to see how things play out.  Is there a time in your mind in which it is too late for us to all continue to wait for some kind of crash?

We all should encourage honest posting AT ALL TIMES.

There is no subject matter re which all humans agree. In all areas other than the investment advice field, we permit all sorts of different viewpoints to be expressed. That way, different ideas circulate. As new knowledge is generated, it spreads and the overall understanding of the subject matter gradually increases.

It is my strongly held belief that that operating procedure that already works well in every field other than the investment advice field would work well in the investment advice field as well. I favor permitting honest posting. Then there’s no question about how long to wait for a crash or anything along those lines. If a crash arrives in x amount of time, then it does. If it does not, then it does not. Either way you are covered.

You don’t have to wait if you do not want to wait. That’s up to you. I am going to wait because I do not have any other choice. I sincerely believe that the Greaney retirement study lacks a valuation adjustment. So I say that when the topic of safe withdrawal rates comes up in internet discussions. When Greaney engages in criminal behavior to suppress the discussion of the error in his study, I am put in a spot if authorities do not take effective action. So I have to wait for attitudes to change. That’s me. You don’t have to do that if you do not care to. You can do as you please.

You are here. So I presume that there is something that you would like me to do for you. Tell me what it is and I will try to help out. I cannot say that I believe that the Greaney study contains a valuation adjustment. If that is what you want, you are going to have to wait. Because I cannot go there. But you are not required to want that. You are free to go on your way.

Does that help at all?

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

If there was all this “tension” you speak of, then your website would have loads of people commenting.  Instead, we just have crickets.

When I put up my famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002, the place exploded. Community member after community member said: “Thanks for starting the most exciting discussion we have ever seen!” That’s how it would be here and at every other investing site on the internet today if not for the criminal acts.

That stuff scares people. The criminal stuff suppresses discussion. Try doing it without the criminal stuff for a few weeks and see what happens. The internet will explode if you do that. There are good reasons why we have laws against death threats and against extortion and all the rest. We need to begin enforcing the law in the investing advice field in the same manner as we enforce it in every other field of human endeavor.

Do that and it will just be good stuff piled on top of good stuff piled on top of good stuff. But for so long as the law is not enforced against the Buy-and-Holders, they have too much of an edge. Being a pure Get Rich Quick approach gives them a huge edge right from the start. Add in that the Buy-and-Holders got there first and this have inertia on their side and they have a second major edge. Throw in that telling people that irrational exuberance is real money is the greatest marketing gimmick in history and they have a third major edge. The Valuation-Informed Indexers could overcome all that if we did something about the death threats and the extortion. But give the Buy-and-Holders a fourth huge edge by granting them an exemption from U.S. and the hill is just too big to climb.

I don’t believe that that will continue to remain true in the days following the next price crash. But for now, we will need to do something to rein in the criminal stuff if we want people to learn what the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us all about how stock investing works in the real world.

My best wishes to you, Anonymous.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Wrong again. After your long response to him after the first comment, he then followed up by saying:

“Sadly, your response is exactly what I wrote you about.” He then banned you from the Asset Builder website.

If Buy-and-Hold were a real thing, no Buy-and-Holder would be banning anyone from anything. If it were a real thing, the Buy-and-Holders would be inviting challenges to their thinking. That’s how you deepen your understanding of a subject over time.

The appeal of Buy-and-Hold is the Pretend Money that it creates. The downside is that the Pretend Money always disappears in time. Millions of people get hurt in very serious ways when that happens. I believe that we would be better off just telling people the truth about how stock investing works in the real world. Then there are no price crashes and no economic crises and many fewer failed retirements. I can live with that.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

<i>Why doesn’t the job take priority over the book?</i>

Because it affects so many more people. The job affects me and my family. The book affects millions and millions of people.

If you found out about the 911 terrorist attacks before they happened, would you elect not to inform the authorities on grounds that there was some risk that reporting the matter would put you in personal danger? Could you sleep at night from that point forward if you elected to keep your mouth shut? I think that I would have to say something. I don’t want to have millions of destroyed lives on my conscience. I want to do what I can to help my country out when it is in grave danger.

My sincere take.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

The nation won’t survive if Rob Bennett is not allowed to post what he wants on other people’s websites?  Really?

You say that “everyone’s ideas are out there.”

The difference is that those pushing Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold ideas do not have to worry about seeing the lives of their loves ones threatened or seeing their careers threatened if they post their sincere views re how stock investing works. Those who believe that Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research do. So the Get Rich Quick ideas get 50 times the circulation. Buy-and-Hold came first. If Valuation-Informed Indexing is ever going to become the dominant model for understanding how stock investing works, we are going to have to decide as a society to apply in the investment advice field the same laws that apply in every other field of life endeavor.

I believe that the laws against death threats and against extortion and against fraud are good and important and necessary laws. If we had not applied those laws in other fields of human endeavor, we would not have achieved a lot of the progress that we have achieved as a society over the years. We are now in a position to achieve great advances in our understanding of how stock investing works. I think we should go for it.

That’s where I am coming from, in any event.

Rob