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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Contact Rob
    • Rob’s Book
    • Don’t Sue Me!
  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
    • 10 Unconventional Money Saving Tips
    • Why Your Money or Your Life Rocked the World
    • This Book Saves Marriages — The Complete Tightwad Gazette
    • How to Start Saving Money
  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work
    • About Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • The Stock-Return Predictor
    • The Retirement Risk Evaluator
    • The Investor’s Scenario Surfer
    • The Investment Strategy Tester
    • The Returns Sequence Reality Checker
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

“Rosa Parks Changed the World Because Rosa Parks Loved the World. Her Love for Those Who Ignored Her Rights for a Time Was Her Secret Weapon Not Against Them But FOR THEM. I Love Jack Bogle. That’s Why I Will Defeat Him in the End. Except I Will Not Really Be Defeating Him. I Will Be LIBERATING Him. Jack Wants the Same Thing I Want.”

April 24, 2015 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I posted to another blog entry at this site:

Go over to Bogleheads and FORCE them to take you in. Don’t take no for an answer. Call your Congressman if they won’t play ball. If he is too slow, then take it to Purcelleville PD Electronic Crimes Division and swear out a complaint about them blocking Honest Posting. Haven’t you been playing softball for far too long? It takes a tough bird to chicken out…. (or whatever it is you say Frank Purdue says.)

We all want the same things, Yogi.

So we will all put our minds together and figure out how to get from the horrible place where we are today to the wonderful place where we all deep in our hearts want to be tomorrow.

We are engaging in a learning process that has to play itself out.

We all have a role.

If we all do our parts, we will all share in the good results.

Forcing things won’t work. You are being foolish when you advocate force.

But doing nothing doesn’t work either. Being afraid to act is not the answer anymore than forcing things is the answer.

We all have to push a little bit — and then pull back when it becomes clear that the pain being experienced by those who have made mistakes in the past is too great.

Do you see?

My motto is: “Be as honest as possible without crossing the line and becoming uncharitable while also being as charitable as possible without crossing the line and becoming dishonest.”

Does that make sense to you?

I HAVE contacted my Congressman. I HAVE spoken to the police. I HAVE contacted lawyers for the purpose of bringing legal cases.

Using the resources available to us is a positive. So I will continue to do those sorts of things.

But you go too far when you say to “force” things and not to take “no” for an answer.

I put the owners of the Bogleheads Forum in a position where they had to ban me or permit the members of that board community to hear what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research says. They FELT forced to ban me. Because to them the idea of permitting investors to learn what the research in this field says is unacceptable. But it’s not true that I forced them. What I forced was a choice. I forced them to choose. They could ban me (that’s the option they chose) or they could permit their readers to learn about the first true research-based model.

I didn’t leave them with other choices. I didn’t agree to self-censor myself so that those seeking to maintain a belief in the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage could do so with my apparent blessing. I made clear that if my name was going to continue to appear at the forum, honest posts were going to appear there on a great variety of subjects. I was firm. I INSISTED on recognition of my right (and the right of all my fellow community members) to post honestly.

But I was not unyielding. I always left that that option of banning honest posting. I didn’t do what you advise here and refuse to take no for an answer. They gave the answer “no” to my demand that my right to post honestly be recognized and I accepted (for the time-being) their answer.

Why is that so important?

Because I become a Goon myself if I cross the lines that you advise me to cross.

My aim to to achieve good here. We can never achieve good through bad means.

I work it hard WITHIN the rules of the boards and blogs and within the laws of the United States and within the rules of civil human behavior.

That’s how I will continue to play it.

Did Rosa Parks do what you are advising here?

She did not.

She INSISTED on her right to choose for herself where she would sit on the bus.

But the first time she did this (this was 10 years or so before the famous incident), she was arrested for what she did and she accepted society’s unfortunate verdict. Her rights were ignored. But she remained within the society to fight for those rights another day. And she won the next fight.

WHY DID SHE WIN?

Because she wasn’t fighting only for herself. She was fighting for the entire society. Recognition of her rights was everybody’s business. In time, all others came to recognize how important it was to recognize her rights and they were given recognition. Rosa Parks changed the world because Rosa Parks loved the world. Her love for those who ignored her rights for a time was her secret weapon not against them but FOR THEM.

I love Jack Bogle. I love Mel Linduaer. I love John Greaney. I love you, Yogi.

That’s why I will defeat you in the end.

Except I will not really be defeating you.

I will be LIBERATING you.

You want the same thing I want. You want to be able to earn much higher returns while taking on greatly reduced risk.

You are going to see that little dream of yours come true.

I am going to see to it.

I am not going to agree to anything less than a 100 percent complete victory for Jack Bogle and for Mel Linduaer and for John Greaney and for Yogi Bear.

I took a sneak peak at the last page of our little saga and I can tell you that you achieve full and complete victory. You agree to permit honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics because I refuse to permit you to settle for anything less.

I cannot do this without you, Yogi.

So I can never disrespect you.

And I can never be less than warm and friendly to you.

And I can never sell you out by agreeing to self-censor myself.

Some of the things you advise up above show a lack of respect for you that I can never permit myself to feel if I am to see that you achieve a full and complete victory.

Something that you have been failing to see since the morning of May 13, 2002, is that we are on the same side.

Your pain is my pain.

And my victory is your victory.

We are going to overcome your pain and lead you to a complete and total victory.

That has always been the plan.

We do that by being firm, yes.

But we also do it by being loving.

I will never be disrespectful of you or the other Buy-and-Holders.

I will ALWAYS take “no” for an answer.

For the moment.

For a time.

For the day.

Then I will be back the next day asking (not demanding!) once again that you free yourself of your chains and end your pain and enjoy the benefits of having been born at a time in the history of the world at which you get to be one of the luckiest investors in the history of the world just by learning what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research in this field teaches us all about how stock investing really works.

I hope that all makes some sense to you.

Love is the answer.

I am sure.

I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investing strategies you elect to pursue.

Don’t let the bad guys get you down, my old Goon friend.

Rob

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

“Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Biggest Boon for Financial Bloggers in the History of Financial Blogging. We Have the Potential to Make BILLIONS. Those of Us Who Have the Courage to Stand Up to the Wall Street Con Men and Their Internet Goon Squads Become the New Experts. All of My Blogger Friends Should Be Taking Advantage of This Great Opportunity.”

April 17, 2015 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

Why aren’t you doing a keynote speech since you are the foremost financial expert and have the most irritant message of anyone on this planet?

I should be giving the Keynote talk, Anonymous. Absolutely.

Valuation-Informed Indexing is the biggest boon for financial bloggers in the history of financial blogging. We have the ability to show our readers how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent. We have the ability to show our readers how to increase returns enough for them to be able to retire five to ten years sooner than they ever imagined possible in the Buy-and-Hold Era. We have the ability to bring the economic crisis to an end and to bring on the greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history. We have the ability to eliminate the possibility of seeing future bull and bear markets and probably even future economic crises.

And we have the potential to make BILLIONS doing this. Most of the experts in this field are afraid to talk about the implications of the past 33 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. That leaves it to us bloggers! Those who have the courage to stand up to the Wall Street Con Men and their Internet Goon Squads become the new experts! I have a RobCast titled “I Am 12 Years Ahead of John Bogle in My Understanding of How Stock Investing Works — And You Can Be Too!” That doesn’t just go for me. That goes for anyone with the courage and smarts to bypass most of today’s experts and post honestly on the past 33 years of peer-reviewed research.

All of my blogger friends should be taking advantage of this great opportunity to make tons of money while doing tons of good for their readers. It’s a freakin’ no-brainer. There shoudn’t be one person leaving this opportunity behind. Even people who still believe in Buy-and-Hold can get in on the action. Just because you believe in Buy-and-Hold doesn’t mean you cannot present the case for Valuation-Informed Indexing and thereby help your readers and thereby make a nice buck.

So, yes, it would make all the sense in the world for me to be the Keynote speaker at FinCon14. I believe that I WILL be the Keynote speaker at the first FinCon that takes place following the next price crash. I believe that we will devote an entire conference to teaching all financial bloggers what they need to know to help their readers make the transition from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing. This is the most important advance in our understanding of how stock investing works ever achieved in our history and we all should be working together to get the word out far and wide before the Wall Street Con Men do more damage.

People are scared.

People don’t like to see the lives of their family members threatened. People don’t like to see their businesses destroyed. People don’t like to be banned from discussion boards that they have spent years of their lives building up. People don’t like to be defamed.

We need to do two things. We need to eliminate all of the penalties that the Wall Street Con Men and their Goon Squads impose on those of us who believe that we should be posting honestly about what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research says. And we need to see that those of us who do work up the courage to stand up to those engaged in this massive act of financial fraud are rewarded for their efforts.

The announcement of your prison sentence is going to change things in a big way. No one will be pushing the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage after your prison sentence is announced. And the announcement that I have received a settlement check of $500 million is going to change things in a big way. Everyone is going to be writing articles and developing calculators and recording podcasts promoting the first true research-based investing strategy after my receipt of the $500 million settlement check has been announced.

We are in an economic crisis today because as a society we have made the rewards of promoting Get Rich Quick garbage too great and because we have made the penalties for reporting accurately and honestly what the peer-reviewed research in this field says too great. I believe that we will turn that around following the next price crash. I will be thrilled at that time to handle giving the Keynote speech at the FinCon event and at lots of other events.

I hope that helps a bit, Anonymous.

Rob

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

“A Lot of People Want Me to Shut Up. But a Lot of Others Very Much Want to Be Able to Post Honestly on Investing Issues Themselves and Would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE to See Me Get Away With It At Some Big Site Because Me Getting Away With It Would Open the Door to Them Getting Away With It. Within a Short Time of the Day When I Get Away With Posting Honestly At Some Big Site, You Are Going to See THOUSANDS of Good and Smart People Rushing Forward to Post Honestly on ALL KINDS OF INVESTMENT-RELATED TOPICS.”

April 15, 2015 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

And the majority disagree with you. We can see this by the lack of any significant interest on this site as well as the comments on other boards. Blaming your problems on others just to feel better, does not improve your situation.

The majority disagrees with me, Anonymous. I noticed!

But isn’t the entire point of rooting one’s investing strategies in peer-reviewed research to go beyond the subjective views of both majorities and minorities and to learn WHAT REALLY IS?

If the majority rejected gravity, would that make it any less a real force?

There was a time when the majority did not believe that people with black skin should be able to drink from the same water fountains as people with white skin. Did that make it right?

If the tobacco industry spent hundreds of millions of dollars of marketing money telling people that it is good for your health to smoke four packs of cigarettes each day and the majority fell for their lies, would you feel comfortable telling those lies to your friends and seeing them die early deaths as a result?

Heaven help us all, but there was a time when a majority of music listeners voted “Disco Duck” the #1 song. Should we put the group that performed “Disco Duck” in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame for their majority-pleasing efforts?

I like being in the majority. When the majority voted “Hey Jude” the #1 song, I said “right on!” But when “Disco Duck” reached the top spot, I felt compelled to disassociate myself from that particular majority decision.

Majorities are not always right. New ideas are NEVER supported by majorities. It is a logical impossibility that a majority could support a new idea on the day it is introduced to the world. For us all to benefit from new ideas, we must be willing to let those advocating new ideas to have their say. Then the new idea starts with one supporter and that grows over time to 100 and then to 100 thousand and then to 100 million. New ideas BECOME majority-supported ideas by being heard even though they are not yet majority ideas.

Our economic system generates enough economic growth to provide an average annual return of 6.5 percent real to stockholders. That’s because we have a long record in this country of PERMITTING and even ENCOURAGING the expression of the new ideas that help us all to live richer lives than we could ever hope to live if we lived in the kind of society that permitted only old, long-discredited majority-supported ideas to be expressed. The Buy-and-Holders want us to become that sort of society. They hate the idea that new research has been done that discredits their old understanding of how stock investing works and that lets us all invest in a way that is far safer and that offers us all far higher long-term returns.

I love my country. I REJECT this sick idea that we can never learn anything new about how stock investing works.

I’ll let you in on a little secret. Deep in his heart, my good friend Jack Bogle is not so crazy about that idea either. He lends support to the Linduaeheads. I see that. But he ALSO has put forward a good number of statements showing that he suspects that Buy-and-Hold is a big pile of smelly garbage. So what do you think is going to happen following the next price crash? I think that Old Saint Jack is going to see all the human misery he has caused and his heart is going to melt and then he is going to give that “I Was Wrong” speech and then we are all off to the races.

My problems don’t matter to too many people outside my immediate family, Anonymous. You Goons don’t have to worry too much about my problems. But I am not the only one experiencing problems as a result of the Buy-and-Hold Crisis. MILLIONS of middle-class people are experiencing problems. And those problems will be much worse following the next price crash. Those millions are going to turn on you following the next crash. And then it will be YOU suffering very, very big problems. Problems like being sent off to serve a long prison sentence. Yikes!

My problems are small compared to that, my man. Do you see?

Would endorsing the Buy-and-Hold garbage make me more popular? No doubt.

For a time.

But I believe in the original Buy-and-Hold vision. The original idea was to encourage people to root their strategies in the peer-reviewed research. There is now 33 years of peer-reviewed research showing that there is precisely zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy could ever work for a single long-term investor. If I endorse what Buy-and-Hold is today, I am rejecting what I loved about it back in the days when I was a proud Buy-and-Holder myself. If I endorse what Buy-and-Hold is today, I am rejecting everything that I and the country that I love stands for. Yucko! You know?

I love my country. If my country were perfect, we would have spit out the Buy-and-Hold garbage a long, long time ago. So I guess it would be fair to say that my country is something less than perfect.

I still find it lovable. I still believe that we are eventually going to figure out how to turn this thing around. We messed up in the Civil War and yet we survived that one, did we not? We messed up during the Watergate thing and during the Clinton impeachment thing and we survived those two, did we not? We messed up during the Great Depression and we survived that one, did we not?

Some of those events were pretty darn scary. But something in us caused us to pull though in the end. I think that is what is going to happen this time. I don’t even think that we are going to remain on opposite sides in the end. I believe that the next price crash is going to be scary enough that it is going to cause us to pull together and to together bring on the greatest period of economic growth in our history.

It’s not always about being popular. Rosa Parks didn’t refuse to go to the back of the bus because she wanted to win a popularity contest. A lot of whites thought she was a troublemaker. Heck, a lot of blacks thought that. You don’t hear too many blacks OR whites saying that today.

She was the GOOD kind of troublemaker. That’s the kind that I try to be. A lot of people want me to shut up. But a lot of others very, very much want me to be able to post honestly about investing issues themselves and would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE to see me get away with it because me getting away with it would open the door to them getting away with it. Within a short time of the day when I get away with posting honestly at some big site, you are going to see THOUSANDS of good and smart people rushing forward to post honestly on ALL KINDS OF INVESTMENT-RELATED TOPICS.

My good friend Jack Bogle will be posting honestly one of these days.

My good friend Wade Pfau will be posting honestly one of these days.

My good friend Mike Piper will be posting honestly one of these days.

My good friend Robert Shiller will be posting honestly one of these days.

And on and on and on and on and on.

And, when all those people are posting honestly and when everybody sees how much earlier they will be able to retire as a result, POSTING HONESTLY WILL EVEN BECOME THE POPULAR THING TO DO. Then what will you Goons say?

Popularity isn’t everything. Caring about your friends is something. I have refused to post dishonestly about the numbers that my friends use to plan their retirements because I care about them. You know what? I bet that I will become a very, very rich man somewhere down the road a piece as a result. What will you say then when your last argument is kicked out from under you?

We allow honest posting on hundreds of different subjects today. We are going to allow honest posting on the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research in this field sometime in the not too distant future. I am sure.

Do you see?

It’s not all about being the most popular guy in the world at every moment of time. Sometimes you have to do something a little unpopular to change the world in a way that makes life better for every single person who lives in it. That’s what this 12-year-long saga is all about.

If I do the right thing here, I will be plenty popular when as a society we work up the courage to move to the place where deep in our hearts we all want to be. Right now I need to be HONEST. Being popular will follow from that once we all get out heads screwed on straight re this stuff.

Or at least that’s my sincere take on these terribly important matters.

My best and warmest wishes to you and yours. Don’t let the bad guys get you down, my long-time Goon pal.

Rob

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

“It’s Important That You Understand What Will Cause the Next Price Crash. It Will NOT Be a Change in the Economic Realities. It Will Be a Change in Investor EMOTION. So It Won’t Be Just the Value of Your Portfolio That Will Be Crashing. The Belief of Millions that Buy-and-Hold Can Work Will Be Crashing. So All the People Who Hold Back from Calling You Out Today Will Be Angry With You for What You Have Done Following the Crash.”

April 13, 2015 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

This would be the one that will take stock values to 60% lower than they were in 2013 within three years, as per your prediction then. That’s about an 85% drop from today. We’ll see how close you were. 16 months to go!

You can do the math as well as I can, Anonymous. Shiller has the data at his web site. Just go check what P/E10 level applies before a secular bear market comes to an end. We have had four of them so far in U.S. history. If you do the check, you will see that in the first three cases the turnaround did not come until we saw a P/E10 of 8 or lower. Then you can do the math to see how large a drop that represents from where we stand today. We’re not looking at a pretty picture, that much is for sure.

It’s important that you understand what will cause the next price crash. It will NOT be a change in economic realities. That’s what it would be if Fama were right and if Buy-and-Hold worked, that’s what it would be if returns played out as a random walk not only in the short term but in the long term as well. No. It will be a change in investor EMOTION that will bring about the crash. Shiller showed that it is investor emotion that determines stock prices. Economic realities play a secondary role because economic factors influence investor emotions. But they often do not do so in a rational way. Our emotions make of economic realities what we will them to make of them.

So it won’t just be the value of your portfolio that will be crashing. Your belief that Buy-and-Hold can work will be crashing. And the belief of millions of others that Buy-and-Hold can work will be crashing. It is the belief that price doesn’t matter when buying stocks that caused the insane, out-of-control bull market. And it is the belief that price doesn’t matter when buying stocks that is behind your burning hatred of anyone who mentions what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research tells us about how stock investing works on a discussion board or a blog.

So all the people who hold back from calling you out today will be angry with you for what you have done following the crash. That follows, does it not?

I wish you well, old friend.

Rob

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

“My Buy-and-Hold Friends Were Not Motivated By Greed. They Did What They Did Out of Love. INTJs Are Planners, Systems-Builders, Conceptual Thinkers and Masterminds. And They Are Pig-Headed, Arrogant, Full-of-Themselves, Pieces of Shit.”

April 2, 2015 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:

Soooo….bottom line, Rob, is you are doing all this for the money….just like all the Buy-and-Holders.

In other words, you are just as greedy as they are, you are just trying to peddle a different shtick.

Buy-and-Holders are greedy and block Honest Posts.
Rob is greedy and blocks Honest Posts.

If you can’t beat ‘em…..

No.

It’s not greedy to expect to be compensated for one’s good efforts. That’s normal and healthy and benefits the entire society as well as the individual receiving the payment. We need to provide incentives for people to do good work to be sure that the good work from which we all benefit gets done.

I don’t agree with you that my Buy-and-Hold friends have been primarily motivated by greed either. My Buy-and-Hold friends did what they did out of love, just as I do what I do out of love. They made a mistake. That happens. In ordinary circumstances, the mistake would have been promptly corrected and we would have all moved on to the better and richer lives we earned for ourselves by discovering the mistake.

We did not face ordinary circumstances. The mistake was not on the surface. It was a mistake concerning the fundamentals. So it affected hundreds of strategic questions in a big way. People had a hard time accepting that so big a mistake had been made. So many ignored it. Many more rationalized, they told themselves that the mistake wasn’t that big a deal. Others actively covered up the mistake in embarrassment.

A second out-of-the-ordinary event caused further delay in correction of the mistake. The mistake was discovered at a time when prices were very, very low, at a time when it was hard to believe that stocks would ever again be selling at fair prices much less insanely high prices. That’s one of the reasons why it was so easy to rationalize covering up the mistake rather than fixing it. Shortly after the mistake was discovered, we entered the biggest bull market in U.S. history. This made the mistaken understanding of how stock investing works seem appealing to millions.

The further delay in correction of the mistake meant that the mistaken understanding was spread to millions. It was written up in textbooks. It was passed along by investment advisors. There were studies issued and calculators developed. There were blogs created to spread the mistaken understanding. Hundreds of thousands of people built careers rooted in promotion of the purest and most dangerous Get Rich Quick scheme ever concocted by the human mind, not knowing that that is what they were promoting. And millions came to believe in what was being promoted to them, seeing the numbers on their portfolio statements go up and up and up over the course of a good number of years. Those people shared what they thought they had learned about how stock investing works with their friends and neighbors and co-workers, making it that much harder for us as a society to acknowledge the mistake when the damage it had done to us had grown so great as to be no longer tolerable.

Making a mistake is not evidence of greed, Anonymous. John Greaney didn’t promote his SWR study to turn a buck, he did it because he thought it was a real and good thing and he wanted to share this real and good thing with others. It’s the same with Mel Linduaer and the book he wrote and the discussion board he built. Jack Bogle made money from Buy-and-Hold. But he could have made just as much money if not more promoting Valuation-Informed Indexing. There is zero reasons (that I am aware of) to believe that he would not have done just that had Robert Shiller published his “revolutionary” (Shiller’s word) research in 1961 rather than 1981.

The Buy-and-Holders got us started on a wonderful journey of discovery of the realities of stock investing. Because they are human, they made a mistake. It has happened to each and every one of us.

Their mistake became a national tragedy because it started machinery running in which lots of wealthy and powerful and well-connected people built their careers around promotion of a Get Rich Quick investing strategy that is in the process of destroying our economic system and generating frightening political stresses on both the left and the right. The mistake must be fixed, there’s no question whatsoever about that. And, yes, a pure and ugly and naked greed has played a big part in the cover-up of the mistake. But it wasn’t greed that started things off. There is no reason that I know of to believe that Buy-and-Holders are greedier than other people.

My personal sense is that it may be that Buy-and-Holders are a bit LESS greedy than most others. The board at Morningstar was called “Vanguard Diehards.” Diehards are people who believe in something so strongly that they cannot bear the thought of not sharing it with others. Greedheads are people who will do anything to make a buck. Diehards are True Believers, people who put their love of something AHEAD of the quest for the almighty dollar.

Buy-and-Holders have their strong points and their weak points. The best way to understand them is to read up on the “INFJ” personality type. They are planners. They are systems-builders. They are conceptual thinkers. They are masterminds.

And they are pig-headed, arrogant, pompous, full-of-themselves, pieces of shit.

It’s not me who says that! It’s those darn Myers-Briggs personality assessment sites you see all over the web.

Our INFJ friends have a very difficult time admitting mistakes. And you see that personality showing up a lot wherever Buy-and-Holders meet to discuss amongst themselves how great they are and how everyone who doesn’t believe every last thing they say about stock investing is a damn moron and a waste of space on this planet.

We should love our Buy-and-Hold friends.

Loving them does not mean enabling them in their acts of self-destruction.

Loving them means thanking them in all sincerity for their many important contributions while shaking them and then putting them down on a better path when they let the weaknesses of their MasterMind personality type get the best of them.

Greed is not the driver here. It is present in places, as it always will be when money matters are at issue. Greed is part of the reason why we have seen a lock-in effect, why it has taken so darn long to get simple mathematical calculations reported accurately. But greed is not the core problem.

There are two core problems.

One is that this is truly amazing stuff. It is hard for people to accept that we now know how to reduce the risk of stock investing by nearly 70 percent. That is by far the biggest advance in the history of personal finance and people have a hard time accepting that they were born into the luckiest generation of stock investors ever to walk Planet Earth.

The second core problem is that the mistake is such an obvious thing once you become aware of it. The price you pay for stocks affects the value proposition you obtain from them. Duh! Whoever would have thought it? Buy-and-Hold is so freakin’ DUMB that it makes people feel great pains of shame and embarrassment to remember that they once believed in it and encouraged others to believe in it. Buy-and-Hold EMBARRASSES us.

We need to get over our embarrassment and move forward. We need to begin getting those darn numbers right!

I’m ready when you are, my greedhead friend (a joke!).

Greedy Rob

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

“It Is a Logical Impossibility That Any Site Could Permit Us Both to Post Honestly While Also Permitting Only Truthful Posts. One Of Us Is Wrong.”

March 31, 2015 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

Funny thing Rob. This is the only financial site I know right now that doesn’t allow HONEST (which I define as truthful) posting.

The words “honest” and “truthful” are not precise synonyms, Anonymous.

You are honest when you say what you believe.

You are truthful when you say what is.

You and I believe different things about investing. You follow the approach rooted in Fama’s research. I follow the approach rooted in Shiller’s research.

It is a logical impossibility that any site could permit us both to post honestly while also permitting only truthful posts. One of us is wrong.

The way it works under the published rules of every site and under the laws of the United States is that sites are to encourage HONEST posting so that the TRUTH may over time be discovered by the readers of the sites.

I have never put forward a single death threat. I have never demanded a single unjustified board banning. I have never advanced a single act of defamation, much less thousands of them. I have never threatened to get a single academic researcher fired from a single job.

Under the system required by U.S. law and by the published rules of every board and blog, ALL posters are permitted to post honestly and all readers are thereby permitted to hear both sides of the story and thereby to discover truth. Some of the posts advanced say things that in a metaphysical sense are untrue. That’s the magic of the system. Since humans are flawed creatures, they must permit the expression of untruths in order to gain the capacity to discover mistakes and correct them. If we permitted only ideas we thought of as truths at one point in time to be given expression, we would never advance as a society. If we followed in other areas of human endeavor the practices that the Buy-and-Hold Mafia insists that we follow in the investing realm, we would not be the people we are.

I could be wrong, Anonymous.

I don’t think I am. I sure am not going to say that I am until I am persuaded that I am. But it could be that I am wrong despite all my efforts to get it right.

That’s why I respect the rules of the boards and blogs and the laws of the United States. Those rules and laws say that I must tolerate the free expression of views held by people who disagree with me. I don’t just tolerate the expression of those views. I celebrate it. I encourage it. I insist on it (as much as I insist on recognition of my right to express my sincerely held views).

Your expression of your contrary views (put forward in a civil and reasoned manner) keeps me honest. Your expression of your contrary views (put forward in a civil and reasoned manner) exposes me to thoughts that I could never come up with on my own. Your expression of your contrary views (put forward in a civil and reasoned manner) spices up our conversations in a delightful and liberating (for both of us!) way.

Keep up the good work!

And knock off the funny business!

Please be sure to do that by the close of business today!

Rob

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

“I’ve Learned the Lesson that the Buy-and-Holders Are Very, Very, Very Insecure re Their Investing Views and Would Prefer Not to Be Presented With Serious Challenges to Those Views. Intimidation Tactics Are for Losers. I Don’t Like to Think of My Buy-and-Hold Friends As Losers. So I Want Them to Knock Off the Funny Business.”

March 23, 2015 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

More proof that you were banned for your poor behavior. Any normal person would have learned their lesson by now.

Yes and no, Anonymous.

There are many people who do not like the “behavior.” That much is certainly so.

But the seemingly problematic “behavior” is just to present the lessons taught by the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research in precisely the same manner as the Buy-and-Holders present the lessons taught by the pre-1981 peer-reviewed research.

The Buy-and-Holders don’t limit themselves to one post per day or one post per week or whatever limit it is that the Buy-and-Holders want me to impose on myself.

The Buy-and-Holders do not hold back from using phrases like “this is wrong” or “this is dangerous” or “this is not consistent with the peer-reviewed research.”

The Buy-and-Holders don’t remind their readers with every comment that they post that they are human and they could be making a mistake. I don’t do this in every comment. But I do it often. That’s more than I can say for most of my Buy-and-Hold friends. A good number of my Buy-and-Hold friends don’t EVER note that it could be that they have gotten everything terribly wrong and that all of those reading their words need to be sure to check out the other point of view.

I’ve “learned the lesson” that the Buy-and-Holders are very, very, very insecure re their investing views and would prefer not to be presented with serious challenges to those views. I REJECT the idea that those of us who believe that we see something good in the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research should be holding back from saying what we believe JUST AS STRONGLY AS WE BELIEVE IT because of the intimidation tactics employed by our Buy-and-Hold friends to discourage us from doing so.

When any of us give in to the intimidation tactics, we hurt everyone. We hurt the millions of middle-class investors who need to hear both sides of the story to make good decisions. We also hurt the Wall Street Con Men, who got into this field because they want to help people plan their financial futures effectively, not because the want to cause economic crises. We also hurt the Internet Goon Squads, who end up serving prison sentences rather than engaging in fun back-and-forth conversations with their Valuation-Informed Indexing friends.

I don’t submit to intimidation tactics.

I love my Buy-and-Hold friends. But I don’t submit to intimidation tactics. In fact, that’s partly WHY I don’t submit to intimidation tactics. Intimidation tactics are for losers. I don’t like to think of my Buy-and-Hold friends as losers. So I want them to knock off the funny business. I certainly am not going to persuade them to knock off the funny business by submitting to their intimidation tactics.

I would be grateful if you would spread the word all over the internet that Rob Bennett is the fellow who REFUSED to submit to the intimidation tactics of the Wall Street Con Men and their Internet Goon Squads. I have hopes as time passes of becoming even more famous for this than I am today.

I hope that helps a bit, Anonymous.

Rob

 

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

“The Fact That Only Goons Comment Here Does Not Show That These Blog Entries Are Unimportant. It Shows That They Are SO Important and So Far-Reaching in Their Significance That Most of Us Don’t Feel Comfortable “Getting Involved.” The Leverage That Comes With Opening the Entire Internet to Honest Posting on the Last 33 Years of Peer-Reviwed Research in This Field Is Nothing Short of Mind-Blowing.”

March 13, 2015 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

Without posts from the people you call “goons”, you wouldn’t have any content. When do you expect to actually post something original?

The Goons are the story today, Anonymous.

We have known intellectually what works in stock investing for 33 years now. That knowledge has been suppressed for 33 years now because it causes the Buy-and-Holders psychic and financial pain to acknowledge their mistake. We cannot continue like this indefinitely. We are destroying millions of dollars of wealth EVERY DAY as a result of our unwillingness to acknowledge the mistakes of the past and move on. The total losses are now in the TRILLIONS of dollars.

Something that cannot be continued eventually comes to an end. No?

You are simply wrong when you say that I do not post original content here every day. The process stuff is both original and important. The 12-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies is the most important finance-related story in the history of the United States. We all need to come to terms with the human misery we have caused by not following the laws and traditions of the United States. My daily blog entries help us to come to terms with what has gone down. The fact that only Goons comment here does not show that these blog entries are unimportant. It shows that they are SO important and so far-reaching in their significance that most of us don’t feel comfortable “getting involved.”

I’ll switch back to content-oriented stuff when the Ban on Honest Posting has been lifted at every investing discussion board and blog on the internet. I obviously love that stuff. I have already written HUNDREDS of content-oriented articles and HUNDREDS of content-oriented column entries and THOUSANDS of content-oriented blog entries and THOUSANDS of content-oriented discussion-board and blog comments and SCORES of content-oriented podcasts and FIVE unique and powerful calculators. And I obviously have only scratched the surface of what can be done by those exploring the implications of Shiller’s “revolutionary” (his word) findings of 1981.

So there is going to be tons and tons of content-based stuff in coming days to add to the tons and tons of content-based stuff already available. But the process-oriented stuff is ten times more important today. Once the Ban on Honest Posting is lifted, we will be seeing honest investing advice with Jack Bogle’s name on it on a daily basis. We will be seeing honest investing advice with Bill Bernstein’s name on it on a daily basis. We will be seeing honest investing advice with Scott Burns’ name on it on a daily basis. And on and on and on and on and on.

The leverage that comes with opening the entire internet to honest posting on the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research in this field is nothing short of mind-blowing. Holy moly!

I would be failing to honor my responsibilities as a journalist to write about anything else until the Ban on Honest Posting has been lifted, Anonymous. I do make one exception. The majority of my entries for the Value Walk column relate to matters of substance. I like to keep those focused on substance as a way of forcing me to spend some time each week looking for new insights of a substance-oriented nature. So I allow myself that little luxury. Other than that, though, I mostly write today about the need to open every board and blog on the internet to honest posting as I see that as being the area in which the long-term leverage benefits are greatest by far.

Does all of that make good sense to you, my long-time abusive posting friend?

It certainly makes good sense to me.

Rob

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

Goon Poster to Rob: “Shiller/Wade Publish Papers and Shiller Has Written Some Books. Seems Like the Knowledge Is Free Flowing to Me. The Only Thing That Has Been Restricted Is Your Access to Some Pretty Unimportant Internet Message Boards and It Is Basically Because You Are a Big Pain in the Rear to Deal With.”

March 12, 2015 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

How exactly is access to that knowledge restricted? AFAICT Shiller/Wade publish papers and Shiller has written some books. Seems like the knowledge is free flowing to me.

The only thing that has been restricted is your access to some pretty unimportant Internet message boards and it is basically because you are a big pain in the rear to deal with.

We need to have people talking about the implications of Shiller’s findings at every investing discussion board and blog on the internet, Laugh.

Shiller’s findings show that there is precisely zero chance that Buy-and-Hold can ever work for a single long-term investor. What percentage of the population do you think knows that?

I didn’t know it on the morning of May 13, 2002.

John Walter Russell didn’t know it when he and I began working together.

Wade Pfau didn’t know it when he and I began working together.

Wade has a Ph.D. in Economic from Princeton. You would sure think that he would know about an the work of an economist who won a Nobel prize, wouldn’t you?

But he didn’t. He had heard of Shiller. But he had never been in a discussion of the implications of Shiller’s work.

Why?

Because there are millions of people who have followed Fama’s work, not Shiller’s. Fama’s work takes one to a very different place. So those people are hurting.

And when people try to explore the implications of Shiller’s work, they get shouted down by the hurting Buy-and-Holders. So, no, information is not feee-flowing AT ALL.

We need to stop the shouting.

We need to stop the hurting.

We need to come to understand that we are all in this together and that we all should be working together to realize the benefits of Shiller’s amazing findings for ourselves and for all our fellow investors.

Internet boards are NOT unimportant. This new communications medium is very exciting. We can change the world by opening those boards to honest posting. My good friend Jack Bogle is a good man and a smart man. If we open those boards to honest posting, we will soon have Jack working with us. Jack has a lot of influence in this field. Once we get him working with us, things will get better and better and better. All of the negative energy will have been changed into positive energy.

I am NOT a big pain in the rear. I report on the peer-reviewed research of the past 33 years. We have seen the biggest advances in our understanding of how stock investing works ever achieved in history brought to light during those 33 years. The peer-reviewed research is NOT a big pain in the rear. The peer-reviewed research is our friend. The peer-reviewed research is trying to help us. The peer-reviewed research liberates us. It frees us to lead richer (in every sense of the word) lives than we ever before imagined that we might be able to live.

The research SEEMS like a pain in the rear end to a Buy-and-Holder because it shows us that the core premise of the Buy-and-Hold Model (the idea that price discipline is not necessary when buying stocks) is in error. The research that I co-authored with Wade shows us how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent while earning HIGHER returns. That ain’t no pain in the rear end. That’s investor heaven. That’s what we ALL want. Including Jack. Including you, Laugh.

I hope that helps a bit, old friend.

Rob

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

Site Visitor to Rob: “As You Demonstrate Through Various Postings, There Are People And Firms in the Financial Industry Which Utilize Valuation-Informed Indexing. So the Information Is Definitely Out There, the Public Does Have Access to it, the Professionals Are Conducting Business With It. Let It Grow. Who’s to Say That Many People Haven’t Figured This Out Already, They Just Haven’t Felt the Need to Publish and Press As You Have? They Just Got on With It.”

March 11, 2015 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

You being a lawyer, and me not being a lawyer, could you please article the actual crimes you believe Wade to be guilty of?

And if he is, then why do you not press charges?

If you believe in your heart of hearts that this “financial fraud” is so heinous and destructive, being a lawyer, why not instigate a class action lawsuit on behalf of all investors over the last 33 years against the financial industry and government?

As you demonstrate through various postings, there are people and firms in the financial industry which have and do utilize VII et al, even though they may not call it as such. So the information is definitely out there, the public does have access to it, the professionals are conducting business with it. Let it grow…

Besides that, perhaps you are not the singular person to “discover” VII. As your blogged financial industry professionals have stated, they too have utilize “VII” for years. So who’s to say that many people haven’t figured this out already, they just haven’t felt the need to publish and press as you have; they just got on with it.

The future will be interesting…

The crime is financial fraud, Canuck.

I have a law degree. But I did not work for my law degree for the purpose of practicing law. I worked for it to enhance my skills as a journalist. I have zero interest in bringing any class action suits.

I can imagine class-action suits being brought by others following the next price crash. I guess that’s part of our system, so I guess that’s fine. But I sure don’t see how it helps anyone for the damages to be greater than they would be if we all just came clean today. That makes more sense for about 5,000 different reasons. I mean, come on.

There are other people who understand that Buy-and-Hold can never work in the real world. I would say that that’s about 10 percent of the population. I of course want to see it grow. Is there some reason I shouldn’t get involved in HELPING it to grow? I sure am not able to imagine any.

I agree with you only in part when you say that the information is out there. There is good information available to people who search hard enough for it. But the good information reaches only a tiny percentage of the population. I was a Buy-and-Holder on the morning of May 13, 2002. So was John Walter Russell. So was Wade Pfau. We all became confirmed Valuation-Informed Indexers once we were exposed to the peer-reviewed research of the past 33 years. Why do you think we didn’t know about this far superior strategy long, long before we became aware of it? Wade had a freakin’ Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton and he didn’t know about it!

There’s some sort of funny business going on, Canuck. I can just tell.

There are some who know who keep it zipped because they know that the Buy-and-Hold Mafia will destroy their careers if they tell. I don’t want the Buy-and-Hold Mafia destroying people’s careers because they tell us all about a better way to invest. I want THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of people sharing all they know! Why the heck wouldn’t I? It’s a win/win/win/win/win.

I’ll let you in on a little secret, Canuck.

My good friend Jack Bogle would LOVE it if we could open the entire internet to honest posting. That would let him off the hook. He would see his ideas helping millions of people (Valuation-Informed Indexing is obviously rooted in Bogle’s ideas except for the one that has been found to be in error). Why the heck wouldn’t he want that?

And of course the same if so for my good friend Bill Bernstein.

And for my good friend Wade Pfau.

And for my good friend Scott Burns.

And on and on and on and on.

None of these people dares to speak up in plain and simple and firm and frank and bold language because they know that their careers will be destroyed if they do.

But what if a number of the Goons were sent to prison and news of that went viral on the internet (as it obviously would)?

That would bring an end to all the nasty stuff, no?

And bring on the greatest period of economic growth ever seen in U.S. history.

And insure the shortest possible prison sentences for those who have posted in “defense” of Mel Lindauer and John Greaney.

Are you able to imagine any possible downside?

I sure am not.

Yes, I believe that the future will be interesting. I only hope that we all work together to insure that it is the good kind of interesting that we have coming up ahead rather than the bad kind of interesting.

Can we all agree on at least that much, my new kinda sorta ethically compromised friend?

Rob

Filed Under: From Buy/Hold to VII

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What’s Here

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  • investing theory (23)
  • Investing: The New Rules (120)
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  • Robert Shiller & VII (105)
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  • Silencing of Wade Pfau (97)
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Rob on the Internet

  • Rob's Weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing Column at the Value Walk Site.

  • Rob's Weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold Column at the Out of Your Rut Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Financial Highway Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Balance Junkie Site

  • Rob's Daily Caller Articles: (1) Can We Handle the Truth About Stock Investing?; (2) How We Invest Is a Political Question; (3) The Economic Crisis Is Trying to Tell Us Something (and We're Not Listening); (4) Facts Don't Matter; (5) Going Google Stupid; (6) How Much Transparency Can We Handle?; (7) Confessions of an Internet Troll; (8) Conservatives Fall Into a Trap by Blaming Obama for the Bad Economy; (9) Meet the New Media, Same as the Old Media; and (10) How Restoring Honor Will End the Economic Crisis

  • Humble Money Experts Are the Best Money Experts, (Rob's Article in the Integrative Advisor, the Journal of the Association for Integrative Financial and Life Planning)

  • Articles on the Return Predictor, the RIsk Evaluator, the Scenario Surfer and the Strategy Tester

  • The Myth of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • A Better and Safer Way to Invest in Stocks and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Economic Crisis Is the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Us and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Stock Volatility Kills! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Risks of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Future of Investing and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What the Stock Investing Experts Don't Want You to Know and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What's the Best Age at Which to Experience a Stock Crash? and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Guest Blog Entry Compares Our Effort to Open the Internet to Honest Posting on Stock Investing with the Civil Rights Struggle of the Early 1960s

  • Our Monster Thread (153 Comments!) on Whether Bill Bengen Should Correct His Retirement Study Now That He Acknowledges the Errors He Made In It

  • Google Search Results for the Term "Valuation-Informed Indexing"
  • Favorite RobCasts

    • Bogle and Valuations

    • When Stock Losses Are True Losses and When They Are Not

    • There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?

    • Risk Tolerance in the Real World

    • Cash Is a Strategic Asset Class

    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies

    • Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)

    • Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In

    • Low Stock Prices Are Better Than High Stock Prices

    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

    • Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator

    • Investing Through Time

    • Mapping S&P 500 Performance

    • S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

    • S&P 500 Return Calculator

    • Russell's Research

    • Shiller's Data

    • Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group

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