Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“I have a job — opening every site on the internet to honest posting re the last 44 years of peer-reviewed research in this field.”

Approximately how many sites do you think you have opened to honest posting so far?

We only need one large site, Evidence. Over and over we have seen big-name experts express a desire to be able to do honest work. But they have never seen the sorts of behavior we have seen from you Goons in any other field of endeavor. They want protection. Once one site offers it, that site will take off and the approach will spread all across the internet.

After we get one large site, it’s all downhill sledding.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Thousands? Really? Yet you can’t even get one person to post over here to support you.

Not buying it.

If you Goons would follow the published rules of the sites, I am confident that I can increase the percentage of the population that follows valuation-informed stock investing strategies from 10 percent to 20 percent within six months.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

You never got traction with anyone, other than JWR.  If you did, you would have people posting here in support of you and your points.  Instead, people ignore you.

I got traction with lots of people. Never a majority or anything close to it. But lots of people. My May 13, 2002, post had people saying a”thanks for launching the most important discussion ever held at this discussion board!” That’s traction! And that was just the first day, before all the work I did with John Walter Russell and Wade Pfau and on and on.

Traction has never been a problem. The problem is that the advance from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is very big. They are entirely different ways of seeing what is going on in the stock market. People need to ask lots of questions to become comfortable with the new way of seeing the world. People want to ask those questions. We saw that at every site at which discussions were held. But people hate the insanely abusive stuff that the small number of Buy-and-Holders who are properly referred to as “Goons” dish out. Your willingness to go so low to suppress the discussions that people want to have had given you a veto power over what can be discussed on the internet.

Will people still permit you that veto power in the days and years following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis? I think not. I certainly hope not. I cannot guaranty anything. But I believe that we are fundamentally a good people. If we weren’t, Shiller would never have gotten his research published in a peer-reviewed journal or have seen his book become a best-seller or have been awarded a Nobel prize. If we are fundamentally a good people, we are one day going to figure out a way to overcome the Abusiveness and the criminal behavior of you Goons.

We’ll see, you know. I know which side I want to be standing on when that happens. I am on the side of the research and of common sense and on the side of the American people and I don’t apologize for it. The Goon stuff has zero appeal to me. It’s hurting everyone alive in the United States (including the Goons themselves!) in a very serious way.

Yes, people ignore me. They ignore Shiller’s research too. If they didn’t ignore it, we wouldn’t have the CAPE value that applies today. I think it is a terrible mistake to ignore Shiller’s research. I think we should be talking about it at every site on a daily basis. Ignoring Shiller’s research at a time when the CAPE value is where it is today is like ignoring a hurricane warnings on the grounds that “I’m sure it will all work out okay.” In the past, it has not worked out okay. Buy-and-Hold Crises are terrible, terrible events. The good news is that today that are 100 percent optional events. The bad news is that as a nation of people we have elected to ignore the 43 years of peer-reviewed research showing us how to avoid them. Not this boy, you know?

Where I’m coming from.

Rob

Set forth below ia the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

The problem for you is that the American public wants “honest posting” to be truthful posting.

10 percent of the American public loves my stuff. I have had more effusive praise directed at me over the past 22 years than any other poster in any of our communities that I can think of. Now, the other side of the story is that most of those other posters have only rarely had negative words directed at them while I have seen ten negative ones for every positive one. I am banned at every large site and these others are celebrated at most sites.

Those realities tell me that Buy-and-Hold is the past and Valuation-Informed Indexing is the future. I don’t enjoy hearing the negative comments. But they are not a good sign for Buy-and-Hold. We wouldn’t see harshly negative comments if Buy-and-Hold inspired true confidence in its followers. We would see a desire to engage in calm, thoughtful debate. That sure ain’t what we have seen from the Buy-and-Hold side. So what I have seen tells me that I am sitting on the right side of the table.

Yes, the American public has sympathies with Buy-and-Hold. That’s clear. But the American public also has sympathies with the idea of permitting civil and reasoned discussion of the peer-reviewed research. The laws that apply (and that the members of the various Buy-and-Hold Goon Squads ignore) show that. It’s an unstable situation to have 43 years of peer-reviewed research showing that the dominant investment strategy is gravely flawed and for us not to be able to talk about this at even a single large site. Unstable situations change as the instability brings on more and more problems.

We’ll see, you know?

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“Not in one thread, in EVERY thread”

And right there in a single sentence you have demonstrated why you kept getting banned at multiple boards. You can’t accept that your arguments never got any traction so you thought if instead of improving your arguments you would simply repeat them more often you might get your way.

It didn’t work but you never learned your lesson.

My arguments never got traction with a majority of board members. i certainly agree with that much. They consistently got traction with a small percentage of the community (about 10 percent). I don’t like that reality. But I accept that it’s a reality.

I want to see the percentage who believe in Valuation-Informed Indexing to increase. It’s not going to happen if I just keep it zipped when the far more numerous group that believes in Buy-and-Hold just continues to make their points on a daily basis.

I don’t apologize for insisting on recognition of my right to post honesty. Every community member should be advancing his or her honest views. I would never dream of intimidating a Buy-and-Holder into saying something that he or she didn’t believe. Such acts of intimidation are degrading to both parties.

If we make it the rule that Shiller’s research findings need to be accepted by 100 percent of the community before the first person can begin talking about them, we are never going to get there. My take is that, once Shiller’s research was published in a peer-reviewed journal, it became fair game. Any site owner who cannot bear to hear peer-reviewed research discussed at this site should shut down the site. To prohibit discussion of the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research is fraud.

That’s my sincere take, in any event. The lesson that you are trying to teach is not one that I have any interest in learning, Evidence. I had come to view a number of people at the Motley Fool board as friends. I don’t make it a practice to lie to my friends.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Here is a thread at bogleheads

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=440314

“Shiller PE now near 39 – 2nd highest ever” 603 posts

603 posts in a single thread, looks like Shiller can be discussed despite your claims.

It’s super that there’s a thread with 603 posts.

But what good is it doing, Evidence? Shiller’s research needs to be discussed on a daily basis. Not in one thread, in EVERY thread. If it were being discussed in every thread, you would never see a CAPE value anywhere near 39.

The CAPE value that applies today tells the tale. Many investors think it might be okay to “forget” to engage in valuation-based market timing (price discipline!). It’s the relentless promotion of the Buy-and-Hold strategy that has done that to us.

My sincere take.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Since you know the research and how things work, you don’t need us for anything, nor do you need access to our websites, conferences, etc.  You should have millions upon millions in your accounts by now with all that superior knowledge.

None of that is so. Appreciating what the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research tells us all about how stock investing works puts about $300,000 in one’s account over the course of an investing lifetime (more in some cases, less in others, it depends on circumstances). Adding $300,000 is no small thing. It’s a big deal. But it’s not millions and millions. Saying that it has to add millions and millions to have any value is silliness.

And the most important benefits of Shiller’s research are not benefits experienced by the individual but benefits experienced by the entire society. The Buy-and-Hold Crisis of 1929 caused a Great Depression. Someone who invested perfectly experienced no losses on a personal level. But he saw his country brought to its knees. He is being perfectly reasonable to want millions of people to be spared that sort of pain now that we have the knowledge needed to make better decisions.

I would like to see a cure for cancer. I want that party for myself because I may get cancer someday. But even if I were assured that I will never need a cure for cancer, I would like to see one appear because it would help millions of other people. Irrational exuberance is the cancer of the personal finance realm. Valuation-Informed Indexing is the cure. I would like to see every site opened to honest posting so that we can spread the cure for personal finance cancer far and wide. I am not able to imagine any possible downside.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

When we all come around to your way of thinking how long do you think it will take for PE10 to correct from mid 30s to 17 (your “fair value” figure)?

That’s a good question.

I am not able not give a clear, precise answer. It is a very big change in human psychology that we are talking about, the difference between believing that the numbers on our portfolio statement are real and that bull markets are good and understanding that only gains rooted in economic growth are good and that irrational exuberance gains hurt us. If we were perfectly rational creatures, someone would have reported on the results of the Shiller research on the day it was published and every study rooted in Buy-and-Hold principles would have been updated immediately. That’s just not how humans operate. They need to ponder things and ask questions and so on before making such a big change. My aim is to get that process of reconsideration of first principles started.

The important thing is to open every site to honest posting re the research. Once we do that, we take the fraud element out of this. If someone says “I BELIEVE that 4 percent is always safe but I acknowledge that there are others who have other views and their views are supported by legitimate research,” that’s not fraud in my assessment. In that case, anyone who employs a 4 percent withdrawal in his retirement plan knows what he is getting into. So I don’t view that as fraud. If the person is not able to hear the message that valuations affect long-term returns because of abusive posting or criminal acts, that IS fraud and that’s obviously a very big deal. So that is my focus.

I have doubts whether we will ever get to a place where the CAPE value is always 17 or thereabouts. That would be the ideal. But I suspect that the Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold/irrational exuberance stuff is too much a part of our human nature for it ever to go away entirely. That said, I believe that we can make big progress and that we are close to doing so. I think that we can get to a place where the CAPE stays within a range from 13 to 21. That’s not ideal but it’s a lot better than what we have seen in recent years (a range from 8 to 44). It’s a gentle roller-coaster ride. A gentle roller-coaster ride would leave us with a more stable stock market, a more stable economy and a more stable political system. I could live with that. It would leave us all richer than we could imagine being during the Buy-and-Hold/Get Rich Quick Era.

The one specific statement that I have made is that I am confident that we could get the number of investors who practice Valuation-Informed Indexing up from 10 percent of the population to 20 percent of the population within six months of opening every site to honest posting re the research. I think that will make a big difference. We won’t be seeing any more criminal behavior at that point. Perhaps some abusive stuff, but much less. Once we get to 20 percent, I think things will just continue moving in a positive direction. I can’t say how long it will take. But so long as you are making steady progress, you are obviously going to end up in a better place over time. It will be a very different feeling.

I don’t think we are going to get the CAPE down through education. I think it is going to take a price collapse, which of course translates into an economic collapse because of the huge loss in consumer buying power. At that point, we would be in our way to a CAPE value of 8 and those who favor research-based strategies will be saying that the CAPE value should be higher. To not permit honest posting re the research at that time would put the survival of our economic system in jeopardy. So at that time I think you may see some people work up the courage to step forward and to stand up to you Goons. We’ll see.

The way to think about this matter is to see that it is like other huge advances in U.S. history. The civil rights movement was stalled in the late 1950s. Some people believed that that could never change. However, we achieved huge progress in the 1960s. We didn’t make it all the way to the finish line. But I can see big changes. The same thing is true with concern re the environment. It is shocking to remember that it wasn’t that long ago when concern for the environment just wasn’t a public policy concern. Attitudes toward smoking have changed dramatically. I remember a time when it would have been considered rude not to provide ashtrays for visitors in your living room.Today, nobody invites smoking in their living room.

Attitudes on these big issues don’t change in a straight-line, gradual way. Big changes are scary. So people avoid thinking about them. But, if the changes are important enough, eventually they do and then there can be a lot of positive movement achieved in a short amount of time. Getting stock investing right matters. So I think we are going to pull it off. I don’t believe that it will happen prior to the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. But my sense is that we are positioned to achieve big steps forward at that time.

Wish us luck!

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Everybody else is wrong and only Rob Bennett is right.  Poor Rob is the victim of a mass conspiracy.

Shiller’s book is offered in libraries all across the nation. We are close.

There are reasons why we have laws against the behavior we have seen from you Goons. That sort of stuff scares people. I believe that in the days and years following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis, we will work up the courage we need to get past you.

We’ll see, you know? I think we are a good people.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“ That question will be settled in the courts, Sensible.”

It has long been settled by the courts, Rob. Just do a simple Google search. Remember all the Twitter bans before Musk took over? That is just one of MANY examples.

What is ironic is that you also ban posts. Somehow you think it is illegal to ban you, yet somehow you don’t think it is illegal when you do it to others.

It’s for the people of the United States to decide. Not me. Not you.

And of course the people of the United States need the information they will obtain during the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis to make a better informed determination.

I ban abusive posts. I don’t ban posts making a positive case for Buy-and-Hold. I believe that investors need to hear both sides. The abusive stuff holds us all back. People who participate on either side with constructive intent help us all to advance in our understanding of these important matters.

Rob