Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently postedto the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

There has to be seller for a buy and holder to keep buying stock.  That means the stock market is actually controlled by market timers trying to get in and out.  Any crisis, therefore, would be the fault of market timing.

I don’t agree even a tiny bit.

The cause of the crisis is that the demand for stocks is insufficiently flexible. The way that markets work is that demand for the item available for sale waxes and wanes in response to changes in the appeal of that item. We need the demand for stocks to be more flexible. Valuation-Informed Indexers are open to buying more stock or less stocks when the price changes. Buy-and-Holders are not. Their demand is inflexible.

That’s the problem. Prices go up and they don’t do anything about it. They just keep buying the same amount of stocks regardless of changes in price. Huh? The unwillingness of Buy-and-Holders to consider price when making purchases renders the market dysfunctional. There is no market that can continue to function properly once price discipline is taken out of the equation and that’s exactly what Buy-and-Holders do. They encourage investors to stick with the same stock allocation at all price points. That inevitably causes bull markets, which cause bear markets, which cause economic crises.

We all should be taking price into consideration when buying stocks. Buy-and-Hold is a price indifferent strategy. It defies common sense.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“Being able to invest in stocks whle only taking on minimal risk is a huge advance from how things were in pre-Shiller days.”

If that was true you wouldn’t have stayed at a 0% stock allocation for over 25 years.

Stocks are extremely risky today. The CAPE value is just a notch below the level that brought on the Great Depression.

But that is a 100 percent optional situation. We could open every site to honest posting. We could all work together as a nation of people to pull that CAPE value down to a reasonable level. Then we could all enjoy the benefits on investing in an asset class that offers high returns at minimal risk.

We’ve seen that there are millions of investors who want to learn how to invest in stocks in research-based ways and a good number of experts who would like to advance their own understanding and help all the rest of us to advance ours. So what the heck is holding us back?

It’s our fear of what you Goons will do to us if we “cross” you by posting honestly re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research. I have been urging everyone within hearing distance to stand up to your Goons going back to the morning of May 13, 2002. If you Goons could think back to what your aims were when you were getting started in investing, back before you made it your life’s goal to make sure that no one every learned anything new about this important subject, you would be working with me, not against me.

That’s my sincere take, Evidence. Learning new things in the one true free lunch on thie troubled world of ours.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“Stocks no longer need to be as risky as they have always been throughout history.”

Stocks will always be risky, it is the nature of the beast. Some people cannot stomach such risk and are best investing in other less risky securities. Of course those people will then miss out on the rewards that go along with the risk of stocks.

We disagree, Evidence.

The Bennett/Pfau research shows that most of the risk of stock investing results from investors failing to act to rein in irrational exuberance (through market timing!). The reaons why research is so great is that it permits us all to live better lives. Being able to invest in stocks whle only taking on minimal risk is a huge advance from how things were in pre-Shiller days.

Of course we need to open every site to honest posting re the research to obtain these benefits! The words “I” and “Was” and “Wrong” can possess an almost magical power.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

People were afraid to tell the story of how cigarettes cause cancer in that day just as they are afraid today to tell the story of how retirement studies that lack valuation adjustments eventually cause failed retirements.

It’s not 20 years. Prices crashed in 2008. They returned to high levels in late 2009. It’s now late 2023. That’s 14 years.

Once we open every site to honest posting re the research, we can get that number down. The more people there are who practice market timing, the quicker prices will correct. If everyone practiced market timing, there would be no irrational exuberance. It wouldn’t be an issue. We would just price stocks properly. What a concept!

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Provide a link to Pfau’s comments.  I only see where he said you are causing him harm.

Anyone who cares to know whether the study contains a valuation adjustment can check for himself. Wade said it but you don’t need to hear Wade day it to know that it is so. Wade hadn’t said it yet on the morning of May 13, 2002, when I worked up the courage to say it.

I would like us to get to a point where we can hear everyone saying it all the time. That’s what this is all about. I should’t have held back saying it for the three years in which I knew it but didn’t say it. And one one else should ever hesitate to say it. Getting the numbers right in retirement studies is important.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Of course you won’t answer the question, like always.  As to price drops, we can always see the cause.  For example 2009/2009 were from sub prime mortgage impact. The silly market timers were in a panic and sold off their stock and us buy and holders snapped up some real bargains.  That is why we can see that the top 10% own the vast majority of stock, while market timers have little net worth.

Is there any CAPE level at which stocks no longer represent a bargain according to your perspective on things?

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

So when you are asked to pay your bills. You tell them the John Greaney story as to why you can’t pay.  Have I got that right?

What do you say when there’s a price crash? Do you say that it just happened, that nobody knows why?

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

No, it operates off of a free market.  Instead, you are looking to put limitations on a free market.  You are trying to change the conditions.

The market is not free for so long as honest posting re the peer-reviewed research is not permitted, Anonymous. I agree that we would have something close to an efficient market if we permitted honest posting re the research at every site. But that’s not the situation that applies. There are millions of people who today are following Buy-and-Hold strategies not because they find the case for it persuasive but because they have never heard the case for Valuation-Informed Indexing. A free market is one in which the information needed to make good decisions is easy to access.

We need to open every site to honest posting re the research, without a single exception. Or so Rob Bennett sincerely believes.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

If you really believed in all of what you say, you would have filed criminal charges, you would have filed multiple civil lawsuits, you would have completed multiple books and you would be participating on all the major websites (such as Reddit).

If the world were open today to hearing about the dangers of Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold strategies, the CAPE value would not be 31. That CAPE value suggests an insane level of emotion. The more emotional we are about stock investing, the less open we are to taking the peer-reviewed research into consideration.

I believe that there will come a day when both the CAPE value and confidence in Buy-and-Hold will collapse. I don’t believe that this level of emotionalism can be sustained. But it’s where we are.

There’s no lack of evidence that the Greaney retirement study lacks a value adjustment. But the study has remained uncorrected for the 21 years since I publicly pointed out the error.

The “idea” that market timing is not always 100 percent required is the “idea” that permits bull markets. We have intellectually gone beyond that idea. But we still cling to it emotionally. It still has its supporters and its supporters cling to it with a desperation that the advocates of research-based strategies do not possess.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

This article could have easily been written about you:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/10/the-crash-callers-wont-save-you/

Your track record is even worse.

There’s a phrase in that article that makes my blood run cold. It refers to “the glorious bull market.” To me that’s like referring to “my glorius brain cancer.” They don’t call it a bull market when stocks go up up the 6.5 percent real justified by the economic realities. For it to be called a bull market. the price gains have to be out of control. Those are the sorts of price increases that cause bear markets and economic crisis. You can keep them, so far as I’m concerned. Those are the sorts of price increases caused by the promotion of Buy-and-Hold “strategies.” Not this boy, you know?

I think Hussman has the right idea. He is at least trying to assess risk. That’s what all stock investors should be doing, in my opinion. I don’t say that everyone should agree with Hussman or with me or with Shiller or with anyone else. But I think that everyone should be thinking about these matters, everyone should be assessing risk at all times. The Buy-and-Holders don’t do that. Buy-and-Hold is a price-indifferent strategy. It is a put-your-head-in-the-sand strategy. I am not a put-your-head-in-the sand type of guy.

No, Hussman doesn’t nail it every single time. Nor do I. Nor does Shiller. At least we are in the game. At least we are trying. The Bennett/Pfau research shows that investors who put in a little effort have been beating the pants off of Buy-and-Holders for as far back as we have records of stock prices. I believe that there’s a realistic chance that stocks will continue to perform in the future somewhat as they always have in the past.

We’ll see, you know?

Rob