Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

I can spend the money in my accounts. Can you go to the store and pay for your items with your opinions on peer reviewed research?

I trust what I can spend. Not what you say.

I trust the peer-reviewed research, Anonymous.

My best wishes.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Did you care about what happened to your ex-wife’s retirement account?

Very much so. If we experience another Buy-and-Hold Crisis, she is one of the millions and millions of people who will get hurt by it. I obviously don’t want to see that happen.

The question is — Why do we not apply the same rules that apply in every field other than the investment advice field in the investment advice field as well. That’s what makes sense. In every other field, we apply laws that show that we understand that experts can make mistakes and that those mistakes need to be corrected over time. So we permit honest posting re new research and thereby provide a means for the experts to come to terms with the mistakes that they have made and to develop stronger ideas.

The thing that is really off in the investment advice field is that the non-experts — the people who will be suffering huge losses in the event that the stock market continues to perform in the future somewhat as it always has in the past — tolerate the cover=up. That’s nuts. But they’ve got that Get Rich Quick impulse residing within them that makes them like Buy-and-Hold, that makes them think that this might be the first time in history when it doesn’t end in tears for everyone.

Can we overcome it? I believe that we are working up to that magic moment. I believe that the arc of history in the personal finance field bends toward rationality. I believe that opening up one large site to honest posting re the peer-reviewed research will get us over the line will get us there. At that point, my ex-wife and millions and millions of others will be able to have some confidence that the numbers on their portfolio statements are accurate. I see that as being a huge step forward.

We’ll see.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“There is no rational case that can be made for failing to exercise price discipline when buying stocks.”

I exercise price discipline every time I buy stocks. I have never paid a cent over the market price.

You are rejecting the concept of irrational exuberance. If irrational exuberance is a thing, then the market sometimes sets the price at an improper place and you need to make an adjustment to know the rel value of the thing you are buying.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Funny how everyone else is wrong and here you sit as the broke guy in the room.

By definition, you can’t have a CAPE value of 38 unless most people are deceiving themselves about how stock investing works. If we were all thinking clearly, the CAPE value would be a reasonable number. And, when most people are deceiving themselves to the extent they are today, most people don’t want to be told that. So the people telling the real story become outcasts.

The other side of the story is that we saw thousands of people expressing a desire that honest posting be permitted at every site. And you Goons obviously concluded from what you saw that there was zero chance that Buy-and-Hold would prevail in a civil, reasoned debate or else you never would have behaved in the manner in which you did.

So we will have some rough days ahead. But the longer term future looks very promising indeed.

My best wishes to you and yours.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“adjusting for irrational exuberance”

Adjusting for irrational exuberance doesn’t pay the bills. You can spend all day, every day, “adjusting for irrational exuberance” and that won’t put food on the table or make a mortgage or rent payment.

I think we all should be adjusting for irrational exuberance. When we fail to do so, we come to believe that the irrational exuberance portion of our portfolio is real money, the same as gains that are rooted in economic growth rather than just investor emotion gone haywire. The next thing you know, there are people putting out safe withdrawal rate studies that lack a valuation adjustment. Not good.

Where I’m coming from.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

No, they are not doing a thing different.  They continue to just buy and hold like always.  You even state that.  You don’t like the fact that they keep buying and holding.

I would like to see every U.S. investor working together to get the CAPE value down to a less scary level. I think we should have public service announcements telling people that “only you can avoid Buy-and-Hold Crisis.’ I don’t see a Great Recession or a Great Depression as being any less of a national tragedy than a hurricane. So I think we should be united in opposition to bull markets as much as we are to hurricanes. We should protect people from them.

So it’s fair to say that I don’t like it that many investors keep buying and holding. But, in the market continue to perform in the future anything like it always has in the past, they will indeed stop doing that. How do you think price crashes happen? Millions of people who swore on a hundred Bibles that they will always hold see something that causes their inner doubts to break through and they sell like mad. Then all their friends (also self-decribed Buy-and-Holders) follow their lead. You look up one day and see that $10 trillion of wealth has been destroyed. Then, surprise, surprise, the economy contracts and collapses. Who ever would have thunk it?

I would just permit honest posting re the peer-reviewed research and skip the rollar-coaster ride to poverty. I don’t see that the irrational exuberance garbage adds anything, It helps our Wall Street Con Men friends to turn a few extra bucks. Yippie, you know? They could make a perfectly fine living in a world in which honest posting re the peer-reviewed research was permitted. I personally think they would do better in the long run. People would love a stock market that didn’t blow up the economy every 40 years or side. The roller coaster ride is a huge waste of time and effort (and MONEY), in my assessment.

Get Rich Quick! Buy-and-Hold! Irrational Exuberance! The 4 Percent Rule! Economic Crises!Failed Retirements! Bull Markets! Big, Big Gains, A Lot More than 6.5 Percent Real! Board Bannings!

Yucko.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

If buy and holders did not have confidence, they would have done something different.  It is obvious you spin a story to try and cover up the embarrassment of your failure.

And the do do something different. Every time. They tell themselves that the stock market is the only market that ever existed in which price discipline is not 100 percent required. Over that, that creates a mountain of irrational exuberance. Eventually, they lose confidence in the project and we have a long bear market that causes misery for millions.

Not this boy. I believe that the economic-based return of 6.5 percent real is <I>just fine.</I> I don’t see any need for irrational exuberance or bull markets or Get Rich Quick or Buy-and-Hold. None of that garbage. Stocks are good enough without adding the roller coaster ride feature that comes with failing to engage in valuation-based market timing.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“ No. What I am saying is that, if Wendy’s says in a commercial that their Junior Bacon Cheeseburger costs $3 but then charges you $6 for it, all of the people who are hurt by this dishonest practice should be permitted to call them out on their dishonesty”

What? We all know the stock price when we are buying it. It is not like I put in an order to buy a stock at $3/share and find out that they took out $6/share from my account. We all know what the stock price is and make our choice to buy it or not buy it. If you don’t like the price, it is simple. Just don’t buy it.

Your comment highlights the “irrational” part of irrational exuberance, Anonymous. Yes, people “know” on some level of consciousness that the numbers on their portfolio statement are wrong at times of massive overvaluation of stocks..The tricky part is — they don’t want to know it! They want to believe in the Buy-and-Hold fantasy. Letting them look at what the peer-reviewed research says undermines their ability to place their confidence in the Buy-and-Hold fantasy. So the Buy-and-Holders want to suppress discussion of the last 43 years of peer-reviewed research. The question on the table is — Should people be permitted to hear the case against Buy-and-Hold even though we know from experience that that would cause fewer people to follow Buy-and-Hold strategies? Buy-and-Hold is a money-maker for the people who push it.

There was a day when discussion of the research showing that smoking causes cancer was suppressed. Do you think that people in this days thought that smoking was perfectly healthy? I don’t think that. I think that there were lots of people who suspected that smoking was not so hot an idea long before they started putting a skull and crossbones on the package. People knew. And they also didn’t know. Because they very, very much didn’t want to know. Today information about the dangers of smoking are everywhere. Everyone knows the truth in a good bit of detail. And fewer people smoke. I think it’s a better world. I think it would be fair to say that there are people who make their living selling cigarettes who don’t agree, who were just fine with the idea of people knowing and not knowing at the same time.

We all know that overpriced stocks are dangerous. We all get it. But at times when there are overpriced stocks in our portfolio that we are counting on to finance our retirement, we don’t want to get it. There are always going to be people who enjoy hearing the Buy-and-Hold lies. It’s human nature. It makes a difference if we give ourselves permission to talk about those lies, to examine up close how much horror they have brought on over the years, to let people see what the research shows. That’s the entire benefit of research, that it permits us to see lies like that for what they are. Please remember that in an official sense the Buy-and-Holders are in favor of looking at the peer-reviewed research. I got the idea from reading one of John Bogle’s books.

Humans are rational creatures. That’s a true statement. Humans are also self-destructive creatures who harm themselves when they ignore what their reasoning ability tells them. That’s also a true statement. I title my book “Investing for Humans” because Valuation-Informed Indexing takes into consideration both sides of the human personality. Yes, we want to invest more effectively. We all do. But we also very, very,very much do not want that. We want to believe that the numbers on our stock poprtfolio are real,n even at times when the CAPE value is in the 30s. There’s something inside us that makes us want to believe in Buy-and-Hold. That’s the thing that has been making stock investing risky for as long as there has been a stock market.

I vote for permitting honest discussion of the peer-reviewed research at every site.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“ So do that. Nobody is saying that you can’t do that. You should do what you think is best. Some others might want to do something different. So what, you know? You do you and they can do them.”

And that is what we have done. We go with buy and hold because it works. We avoid risky timing schemes so that we don’t go broke (like you). We ban internet trolls that make up stories about abusive posting and criminal acts.

Sorry, but I would rather be sitting with $7.6 million in my accounts vs having $0 in my 60’s. Call me crazy.

I wish you the best of luck with it, Anonymous. I can go that far.

I can’t say that I believe that the Greaney retirement study contains a valuation adjustment. That’s the point of conflict that became evident on the afternoon of May 13, 2002. If I say that the Greaney retirement study lacks a valuation adjustment, people gradually lose confidence in the study. I think that’s a good thing. Greaney does not see it as being a good thing. So, since May 13, 2002, we have been working at cross purposes.

I consider him a friend. I enjoyed the good times we had together in the days before I pointed out the error in his study. But I feel better about myself when I post honestly. So, since May 13, 2002, I do that.

I don’t believe that Greaney himself truly believes that his study contains a valuation adjustment. I think that Evidence nailed that one. But Greaney doeesn’t like to see people talking about it. The more they talk about it, the more that their common sense becomes dominant over their Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold impulse. I like it when common sense and rationality and research become dominant. Greaney doesn’t like that one tiny little bit. He hates it, hates it, hates it.

The only reason why Greaney hates me so much is that I tried to bring rationality and common sense and research into discussions of safe withdrawal rates. That’s the “bad behavior” for which I have been banned at every site. I don’t see it as bad behavior. I see it as good behavior. I offer precicsely zero apologies for pointing out that the Greaney study lacks a valuation adjustment.

I wish you all good things.

Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

So, a guy that has been successful over 30 years should give consideration to what you think are positive reactions to your posts and your opinions?

Everyone should be open to taking what the peer-reviewed research says into consideration. It is always when irrational exuberance gets wildly out of control when we experience a Buy-and-Hold Crisis. What are people saying when irrational exuberance is out of control? They are celebrating the phone gains, treating them as normal. It is the phony gains that make Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold strategies so popular. The research is teaching us all something important.

Your question is like a drunk saying “I can drive home, I feel absolutely great!” A drunk feels ARTIFICIALLY great. A Buy-and-Holder doesn’t know whether his strategies work or not because he is not willing to subtract for the effect of irrational exuberance. You get different results when you do the calculations properly.

My sincere take.

Rob