|
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the Goon Central board:
>
if he would try to claim in court that his internet business was ruined he would likely be asked why he was the most prolific poster at the website he is claiming harmed him.
>
What you are saying here would be so if it were ONLY the Goons who were doing me harm, Ataloss. That’s what I thought the situation was when I sent my first e-mail to Motley Fool about the Greaney problem.I learned something when that e-mail didn’t get the job done. And of course I learned more when my good friend Jack Bogle didn’t respond to my four e-mails to him re the Lindauer matter.It ain’t just the Goons who are a problem here. Not by a long shot. I don’t say anymore that it is only the Goons.
This is a society-wide problem. Dab brings up a telling point when he says that, when he goes on Google to find the value of his portfolio, they tell only the nominal number. You can find the P/E10 value on Google. They give you what you need to figure out the real numbers. But they don’t assemble them for you. And they should. Why don’t they? Shiller’s advance was HUGE. His word was “revolutionary.” That ain’t hype. The move from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is the biggest advance in the history of investing analysis. By a factor of 10. Reducing the risk of stock investing by 70 percent is no small thing. We need to rewrite all the textbooks. Experts are people who spend a lot of time in school. The more time you spent in investing school, the more you believe in Buy-and-Hold because that is what is taught there. So we are in a situation where the experts are the people least able to see the straight story. It’s a mess. Now — We’re not going to put everyone in jail who doesn’t understand this stuff. That’s 90 percent of the freakin’ population! You don’t put 90 percent of the population in jail. It’s not a practical idea. But this is the greatest act of financial fraud in U.S. history. So there obviously need to be prison sentences. So what the heck do we do? We bring out our old friend Cognitive Dissonance. Cognitive Dissonance is real. It is written up in the psychological literature. It explains what we have seen. Jack Bogle is a great man, a good man and a smart man and a hard-working man and a pioneer in an important field. He is also a human. This is bigger than him. He had no idea that this Shiller stuff was so important. He believes in Buy-and-Hold on at least one level of consciousness and so he had to tell himself things to persuade himself to keep doing that when he was faced with evidence that the Shiller stuff is right. Millions of people did similar things. All of those people are going to be left off the hook. They messed up. Humans mess up from time to time. They also did lots of good things. Case closed. That’s true with the Goons too. Greaney and Lindauer believe in this stuff on some level of consciousness. So in an ideal world they would be off the hook too. But we have a problem. You can’t use cognitive dissonance as an excuse for putting forward death threats and tens of thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. Permit that and you might as well take all the laws off the books. There’s an additional dimension to this for you Goons because you were tricked into believing that these nasty internet tricks that low-lifes use to deal with “trolls” are not in the most extreme cases violations of law. We haven’t had people go to jail for this sort of thing yet because the internet is a new communications medium. But all the elements of crimes are there and recorded in Post Archives. That’s why you Goons cannot back down now. Fail to back down, you go to prison. Back down, you go to prison. So your attitude is: In for a dime, in for a dollar and hope for the best. I get it. Loud and clear. There’s not anything that I can think of that I can do to help out. I obviously want to bring the economic crisis to an end. That’s job #1. But if I lie and say that I don’t think you’ll go to jail, you don’t believe me. And, if I tell the truth and say you’re going to jail, you are too afraid to come clean. My thought is that the best thing to do is to focus on the positive side of the story, which is huge. The positive is so big that I believe that we can get lots of people to let the bad stuff go. But can we get enough people to let the bad stuff go to keep you out of prison? Before the Wade Pfau thing, I thought there was a small chance that we could pull that off. I no longer believe that. I feel obligated to tell you what I believe re this matter because going to prison is a very big deal and I do think of you as friends whatever you say about it. So, following the Wade Pfau thing, I started mentioning this point with the hope that we could at least keep the prison sentences as limited as they possibly can be at this point. It does nothing for me to see my friends go to prison. I am not going to say that I believe this can be avoided at this point because I personally do not believe it can be avoided. But there has of course never been a situation quite like this one before. So no one knows anything with certainty. The reason I post here is that Job #1 is to bring the economic crisis to an end. None of us make it to the other side if we don’t figure out a way to pull together and make that one happen. The fear you Goons have of going to prison is part of the reason why we cannot pull together. So I have a responsibility to come here and do what I can do. If you Goons didn’t matter, I wouldn’t be here. Bogle’s unwillingness to deal with the Lindauer matter gives you Goons a power to do yourselves and others harm that otherwise you would not possess. If Bogle does his part, I am out of here. If Bogle does his part, this place no longer exists. I have ASKED Bogle to do his part on numerous occasions. I am clean re this aspect of the question, Ataloss. Rob |
“You Can’t Use Cognitive Dissonance As an Excuse for Putting Forward Death Threats and Tens of Thousands of Acts of Defamation and Threats to Get Academic Researchers Fired From Their Jobs. That’s Why You Goons Cannot Back Down Now.”
Set forth below are the words of a comment that I recently put to the Goon Central board:
|
if he would try to claim in court that his internet business was ruined he would likely be asked why he was the most prolific poster at the website he is claiming harmed him.
What you are saying here would be so if it were ONLY the Goons who were doing me harm, Ataloss. That’s what I thought the situation was when I sent my first e-mail to Motley Fool about the Greaney problem. I learned something when that e-mail didn’t get the job done. And of course I learned more when my good friend Jack Bogle didn’t respond to my four e-mails to him re the Lindauer matter. It ain’t just the Goons who are a problem here. Not by a long shot. I don’t say anymore that it is only the Goons. This is a society-wide problem. Dab brings up a telling point when he says that, when he goes on Google to find the value of his portfolio, they tell only the nominal number. You can find the P/E10 value on Google. They give you what you need to figure out the real numbers. But they don’t assemble them for you. And they should. Why don’t they? Shiller’s advance was HUGE. His word was “revolutionary.” That ain’t hype. The move from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is the biggest advance in the history of investing analysis. By a factor of 10. Reducing the risk of stock investing by 70 percent is no small thing. We need to rewrite all the textbooks. Experts are people who spend a lot of time in school. The more time you spent in investing school, the more you believe in Buy-and-Hold because that is what is taught there. So we are in a situation where the experts are the people least able to see the straight story. It’s a mess. Now — We’re not going to put everyone in jail who doesn’t understand this stuff. That’s 90 percent of the freakin’ population! You don’t put 90 percent of the population in jail. It’s not a practical idea. But this is the greatest act of financial fraud in U.S. history. So there obviously need to be prison sentences. So what the heck do we do? We bring out our old friend Cognitive Dissonance. Cognitive Dissonance is real. It is written up in the psychological literature. It explains what we have seen. Jack Bogle is a great man, a good man and a smart man and a hard-working man and a pioneer in an important field. He is also a human. This is bigger than him. He had no idea that this Shiller stuff was so important. He believes in Buy-and-Hold on at least one level of consciousness and so he had to tell himself things to persuade himself to keep doing that when he was faced with evidence that the Shiller stuff is right. Millions of people did similar things. All of those people are going to be left off the hook. They messed up. Humans mess up from time to time. They also did lots of good things. Case closed. That’s true with the Goons too. Greaney and Lindauer believe in this stuff on some level of consciousness. So in an ideal world they would be off the hook too. But we have a problem. You can’t use cognitive dissonance as an excuse for putting forward death threats and tens of thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. Permit that and you might as well take all the laws off the books. There’s an additional dimension to this for you Goons because you were tricked into believing that these nasty internet tricks that low-lifes use to deal with “trolls” are not in the most extreme cases violations of law. We haven’t had people go to jail for this sort of thing yet because the internet is a new communications medium. But all the elements of crimes are there and recorded in Post Archives. That’s why you Goons cannot back down now. Fail to back down, you go to prison. Back down, you go to prison. So your attitude is: In for a dime, in for a dollar and hope for the best. I get it. Loud and clear. There’s not anything that I can think of that I can do to help out. I obviously want to bring the economic crisis to an end. That’s job #1. But if I lie and say that I don’t think you’ll go to jail, you don’t believe me. And, if I tell the truth and say you’re going to jail, you are too afraid to come clean. My thought is that the best thing to do is to focus on the positive side of the story, which is huge. The positive is so big that I believe that we can get lots of people to let the bad stuff go. But can we get enough people to let the bad stuff go to keep you out of prison? Before the Wade Pfau thing, I thought there was a small chance that we could pull that off. I no longer believe that. I feel obligated to tell you what I believe re this matter because going to prison is a very big deal and I do think of you as friends whatever you say about it. So, following the Wade Pfau thing, I started mentioning this point with the hope that we could at least keep the prison sentences as limited as they possibly can be at this point. It does nothing for me to see my friends go to prison. I am not going to say that I believe this can be avoided at this point because I personally do not believe it can be avoided. But there has of course never been a situation quite like this one before. So no one knows anything with certainty. The reason I post here is that Job #1 is to bring the economic crisis to an end. None of us make it to the other side if we don’t figure out a way to pull together and make that one happen. The fear you Goons have of going to prison is part of the reason why we cannot pull together. So I have a responsibility to come here and do what I can do. If you Goons didn’t matter, I wouldn’t be here. Bogle’s unwillingness to deal with the Lindauer matter gives you Goons a power to do yourselves and others harm that otherwise you would not possess. If Bogle does his part, I am out of here. If Bogle does his part, this place no longer exists. I have ASKED Bogle to do his part on numerous occasions. I am clean re this aspect of the question, Ataloss. Rob |
Larimore Acknowledges Errors in Bogleheads Guide, Then Retreats into Further Defensiveness
Taylor Larimore, co-author of The Bogleheads Guide to Retirement Planning, on Wednesday acknowledged that his book contains errors in its discussions of stock investing risk.
He didn’t say the Three Magic Words. But he inched up closer to doing so than any long-time advocate of the Buy-and-Hold Model has done before (to my knowledge).
Taylor’s words came in a thread at the Bogleheads.org board entitled “The 50 Percent Fallacy.” A community member named “Tadamsmar” launched the thread, saying: “I wonder if there are any Bogleheads here who have made an attempt to square their philosophy of investment risk on the facts rather than on a fallacy? If so, please speak up.”
Tadamsmar noted that Page 142 of the Bogleheads Guide asserts that a 50 percent loss is the maximum loss that can be suffered by stock investors. This is of course a wildly false claim. The average loss on the three earlier occasions when stock prices went to double fair value is 68 percent real. On the one occasion when the P/E10 level went above 30, we saw a drop in stock prices of 80 percent real. In the late 1990s, the P/E10 level went to 44, far above what we have ever before seen in U.S. history.
Larimore responded defensively. He claimed that: ” Nowhere does the book say stocks (or any investment) can’t fall more than 50%.”
Numerous other defensive comments were posted. But some reasoned points were offered as well. “DBR” said: “Whether the Bogleheads book literally presents false information at that point is arguable. On re-reading, I can certainly see how a reader relying on no other sources of information could be mislead by the discussion presented there.”
After extensive discussion and obfuscation, Larmore acknowledged: “You are right. Figure 9.1 in the book should not use the words ‘Maximum Loss.’ Thank you for the correction.”
It’s a start. Eight years after we discovered the analytical errors in the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies, we have not heard any of the authors of the Old School studies or calculators make that clear an acknowledgement of their mistakes.
A few posts later, Taylor returned to Defensive Mode. He said: “Over two dozen Boglehead retirement and financial experts contributed their time and knowledge to our second Bogleheads’ Guide without renumeration. Like any book, it contains mistakes and some things may not be perfectly clear to every reader. Despite its shortcomings, customer reviews at Amazon give our book a 5-STAR rating and it is recommended by many reviewers, including Vanguard. Please tell us what you like about the book.”
Tadamsmar observed in response to one of the many defensive comments put forward by Boglehead.org community members that: “If I make a correct statement and people keep coming back and telling me I am wrong, then I guess this might continue forever.”
Taylor has claimed on earlier occasions that the reason why he favors a ban on posts pointing out the flaws in the Buy-and-Hold Model is that Buy-and-Hold is the only investing approach rooted in “science” and “academic research.”
“The Right of Contributors to Post Their
Sincere Views Must be Respected”
Retired at 48 recently announced at the Vanguard Diehards board that he has entered negotiations with Morningstar.com to deal with the abusive posting problems that have plagued the board in recent years. Set forth below is an e-mail that I sent to Retired at 48 offering to help out in this effort. I have received a response from Retired at 48. We have not made a decision as to whether to go public with any future correspondence.
Retired at 48:
This is Rob Bennett. I posted as “hocus” at the Vanguard Diehards forum from July 2005 through February 2007.
I saw your note at the board concerning your talks with Morningstar to open the forum up to honest posting by community members coming at things from various points of view. That’s good and important work.
I don’t know how much you know about my background. It was my honest posting on the safe-withdrawal-rate topic (and other valuation-related topics) that caused formation of the Bogleheads.org forum in the first place (the board was formed to provide the dogmatics an escape from Morningstar, which was not willing at the time to go along with a ban on honest posting). Here’s a link to an article at my site that provides some background re the thoughts of other community members on the tactics used to enforce the ban:
http://www.passionsaving.com/investing-discussion-boards.html
Here’s a link to an article that sets forth the text of an e-mail that I sent to my congressman on this matter:
http://www.passionsaving.com/internet-harassment.html
Here’s a link to a blog post setting forth the text of an e-mail that I sent to my local police department and that I discussed in telephone conversations with a Virginia state police official who deals with internet crimes (Mel often invited contributors to the Greaney board to the Vanguard Diehards board to help intimidate those seeking to post honestly and two long-time contributors to the Greaney board were named “moderators” for the Bogleheads board on the day it was formed):
I wish you luck with your endeavors. I believe that the internet discussion board is an important communications medium of the future but that to achieve its potential the right of contributors to post their sincere views must be respected; that is, site owners must honor the promises they make to those who build their boards to protect them from intimidation tactics. If there is ever anything that I can do to help move things in a positive direction, please let me know.
Rob
Rob Sympathizes (Kinda, Sorta) with Mel
re the Morningstar Ratings Boxes
A poster named “Yabbadabbado” argues that Mel Lindauer (co-author of “The Bogleheads Guide to Investing”) is overly sensitive. The comment comes in response to a complaint by Mel about the Morningstar ratings boxes, which permit posters to give posts they like a thumbs up and posts they do not like a thumbs down. Mel has been getting a good number of thumbs downs at the Diehards board of late because of his long history of abusive posting there.
I see merit in what both Yabba and Mel have to say re this one.
Yabba is right that Mel and lots of the others who post on discussion boards are overly sensitive. It’s a good thing that they didn’t have those rating-box thingamabobbles in place when I was posting over there. I would have been piling up negative 40s! I would have been attracting so many thumbs-down ratings that I probably would have caused the Morningstar discussion-board software to crash! I would have had people urging that a policy be adopted that a bomb be dropped on the home of the community member with the most thumbs-down ratings! And the proposal would have brought crowds to the little yellow house across the street from the post office to hear the imminent “Ka-Boom!”!
Mel — I feel for you, man. I very, very much know how it feels.
But you gotta let it go. Sometimes you’re up, sometimes you’re down. If you’re wanting to hear the applause, you’ve got to be willing to hear the boobirds too. It’s all part of the wonderful game.
I agree with Yabba that people take this stuff too personally. That causes a lot of trouble. Mel needs to chill out. Lots of others need to chill out with him.
That said, Mel has a point as well.
Mel has a lot of accomplishments to his credit in that board community. The Vanguard Diehards board was once the most successful investing board in the history of the internet. That was to a considerable extent Mel’s doing. He had put forward tens of thousands of helpful posts. Is he not entitled to some respect from his fellow community members in return for that? Should he have to listen to jeering?
Yes and no.
Mel is not being jeered because of the tens of thousands of helpful posts. He is being jeered because of the many hundreds of abusive ones. It’s taboo to say that. But he knows it, Yabba knows it, and every poster who has been paying even a tiny bit of attention knows it. To get back in the good graces of that community, Mel would need to do the things that humans do to get back in the good graces of communities they have harmed. But that would mean admitting the harm that has taken place. That cannot be done. That must not be done. Right?
I don’t think that’s right.
There’s a reason why it has become the cultural norm among all civilized peoples for those who discover they got an important number wrong in a study to correct it (Mel did not himself publish a study that got an important number wrong, but he cites without criticism the Greaney study in his book and has not done anything about the misimpressions he created by doing so since learning of the analytical errors in the study). There’s a reason why it has become a cultural norm among all civilized peoples for those who act rudely and abusively and do harm by doing so to apologize for the harm they have done. If the internet discussion board is going to achieve its potential (I very much hope that it does), the people who run the boards are going to have to start to take seriously their responsibilities for seeing that cultural norms are given the respect they merit.
Morningstar has rules prohibiting the tactics that Mel used to destroy the Diehards board. Had those rules been enforced in even a halfway reasonable manner, Mel would not be in the fix that he is in today. Had those rules been enforced in even a halfway reasonable manner, he would have been given a warning when he first began posting abusively. My guess is that he would have altered his behavior in response to the warning. He would have reined himself in. That board community would still be thriving today. Mel would still be loved there.
It’s Morningstar’s fault that it did not happen that way. Morningstar wrote its rules in the way it did to attract people of intelligence and integrity to its boards. Then it abandoned them by failing to administer its own rules in a reasonable manner. It did a whole big bunch of people a whole big bunch of harm by failing to do so. Morningstar should be ashamed of its behavior re this matter. That’s my take.
I can’t tell you precisely why Morningstar didn’t enforce the rules. It appears that part of it is that they thought that they might lose some posters if they did so and they didn’t want to lose those people. That’s wrong. That doesn’t work.
By failing to rein Mel in, Morningstar put him in an untenable position. He felt forced to become increasingly abusive to stomp out the efforts of the hundreds of community members who were interested in engaging in honest discussions of safe withdrawal rates and other valuation-related topics. Now there are hundreds and hundreds of abusive Mel posts in the files. Not good. Not good for Mel. Not good for Morningstar either (the abusive posting destroyed the board, so Morningstar ended up losing not the small number of posters who would have fled had they enforced the rules but pretty much the entire board community).
When a site owner publishes rules to govern posting at its site, it is making a promise to us to enforce those rules in a reasonable manner. We should hold the site owners to those promises. To fail to do so creates problems for everyone — for us, for the site owners, and for the abusive posters too. No one benefits from a failure to enforce the rules that prohibit abusive posting.
I admire a lot of what Mel has done. I of course do not admire his abusive posting one little bit. He’s a grown-up and he needs to take responsibility for what he has done. But Mel’s abusive posting is not solely Mel’s doing. Morningstar permitted it to happen; by failing to act, an argument can even be made that Morningstar encouraged it. We encouraged it too when we failed to speak up in clear and direct and firm terms. The Normals played a role in the destruction of that board too.
Mel blames his troubles on the ratings boxes. That’s not it. I’ve seen ratings features used well and I’ve seen them used poorly. In the days when the Motley Fool board was being built up, community members there used the recommendations feature responsibly; we used it to point other community members to the best stuff on the board. In the days when the Motley Fool board was in decline, community members used the recommendations feature to advance savage smear campaigns.
It’s not ratings features that make a board succeed or fail. It’s people. Attract people who love community and the community will grow. Attract people who hate community and the community will fail. Mel loved the Diehards community until the community expressed a strong desire to engage in honest posting re safe withdrawal rates and then he decided he hated it instead. That was his failing. Morningstar’s failing was not doing anything to rein him in until too many good people had left in revulsion and too many bad people had been drawn in by the out-of-control ugliness.
The Vanguard Diehards board was an amazing resource for middle-class investors for a long time. People insult it when they suggest that the adoption of ratings boxes is what did it in. The board was done in by one of the ugliest and most sustained rampages of abusive posting ever seen in the history of the internet. If we deny that, we fail to learn any lessons from the experience.
We need to learn these lessons. We need to stop hurting ourselves in this way. Mel deserves a lot more from us than what we have given him thus far.
And it’s not just Mel who deserves better, of course. Truth be told, we all deserve a lot better from us than what we have given ourselves thus far.
Love is the answer. Mel hates it when I quote from the lyrics of popular songs in discussions of investing. But I really do believe that Jackie DeShannon nailed it when she told us that “What the Vanguard Diehards Need Now Is Love, Sweet Love.” With a little more love, Mel never would have even considered posting abusively. With a little more love, Morningstar would have reined him in had he done so. With a little more love, hundreds of community members would have insisted that Morningstar act had it falled to do so. With a little more love, Mel would have responded to those thumbs-down ratings by acknowledging the problem and getting about the business of setting things right with his fellow community members.
Lord, we don’t need another SWR study.
We’ve got Old School ones and New School ones enough to read.
We’ve got calculators generating all the numbers you could want to show.
Lord, if you really want to know…
Today’s Passion: You can read my reaction to learning that I had been banned from the Vanguard Diehards board (now that’s a thumbs-down rating!) in a blog entry entitled Banned at Morningstar!


feed twitter twitter facebook