I’ve posted Entry #698 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called People Want to Believe That They Know How Stock Investing Works — Shiller’s Huge Advance Is Disorienting.

Juicy Excerpt: In a post-Shiller world, we all should be careful to distinguish real stock gains from irrational exuberance. We should be checking regularly on changes to the CAPE value so that we can stay up to date re the true value of our portfolio. I don’t know anyone who does that and I rarely hear people talk about doing it on internet discussion boards.

I’ve posted Entry #697 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Claim That Buy-and-Hold Is Research-Based Is a Marketing Gimmick.

Juicy Excerpt: I believe that the vast majority of Buy-and-Holders possess a sincere belief that their strategy is research-based. I have engaged in thousands of interactions with Buy-and-Holders over the years and my assessment is that their confidence in their strategy is strong and deep. Unfortunately, I also believe that it is misplaced. In the event that Buy-and-Hold is not truly a research-based strategy, the fact that it is promoted as research-based is actually a bad thing. The belief that it is causes people to have confidence in bad strategy in which they otherwise would not possess confidence.

I’ve posted Entry #696 to my weekly Valuation-Informed indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Most Buy-and-Hold Dogmas Have Never Been Formally Stated.

Juicy Excerpt: My sense is that the Buy-and-Holders simply never made the distinction between the guessing-game form of market timing and valuation-based market timing. They were properly persuaded that the guessing game form of market timing does not work and improperly stated their conclusion as an admonition against market timing in general. Index funds were not widely available at the time when the Buy-and-Hold strategy was being developed and valuation-based market timing only works with index funds. My guess is that few appreciated the need to distinguish between the two types of market timing in those days.

I’ve posted Entry #695 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Many People Believe That There’s Research Showing That Market Timing Doesn’t Work.

Juicy Excerpt: I don’t believe that the people who developed Buy-and-Hold back in the 1960s were even thinking about valuation-based market timing when they came to their conclusion that market timing doesn’t work.

I’ve posted Entry #694 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Shiller’s Research Shows Why Stock Forecasting’s Record Is So Poor.

Juicy Excerpt: So it is not quite true that stock forecasts do not work because all factors affecting price are incorporated into the price. One factor is never incorporated into the prices – mispricing on either the high side or the low side. If mispricing were considered, it would disappear!

I’ve posted Entry #693 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Stock Investing Is a Community Endeavor.

Juicy Excerpt: I see the stock market as somewhat akin to the water supply or the oxygen supply. It’s something we all need to be able to provide effectively for our financial future. We shouldn’t want it to become polluted. We should do what we can to help others to come to understand why keeping stock prices on the straight and narrow is a project to which we all should contribute with vigor and good cheer.

I’ve posted Entry #692 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Same Forces That Explain Bull Markets Explain the Suppression of Discussion of Shiller’s Research Findings.

Juicy Excerpt: Buy-and-Hold is nothing new. The term is relatively new. But the idea has been around for as far back as there has been a stock market to invest in. The core idea is to practice price indifference. That’s a dangerous idea.

I’ve posted Entry #691 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Stock Market Is Uniquely Structured to Encourage Self-Deception.

Juicy Excerpt: It’s dangerous for the owners of an asset class to possess the power to assign it its worth. The owners possess an obvious bias. The people who own stocks want stocks to be priced higher. So they direct a good deal of mental energy to the project of pumping up the price. There are all sorts of rationalizations available to the human mind engaged in this task.

I’ve posted Entry #690 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Were Shiller’s Research Finding a Surprise?

Juicy Excerpt: I’ve been writing about this strange reaction to Shiller’s research findings for 20 years now, trying to come to a full understanding of it. What I think is going on is that the advance in understanding is so big that we have not as a nation of people been able to process it. For valuations to affect long-term returns, there has to be some secret ingredient in valuations that makes them like no other factor that affects stock prices. Changes in all other factors are incorporated into the stock price quickly. They don’t affect long-term returns, they affect returns immediately. Valuations only have an effect in the long-term.

I’ve posted Entry #689 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called People Are Afraid to Post Even Anonymously in Support of Market Timing.

Juicy Excerpt: I often make the point that thousands of my fellow community members have expressed a desire that honest posting re the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research be permitted. They ask: So why is it that none of these people post at my blog? I point out all the abusive stuff. People don’t like to see the lives of their loved ones threatened, I argue. People don’t like to see their careers destroyed. People who support me could post to my blog anonymously, one of my critics observed today. Why don’t they?