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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Contact Rob
    • Rob’s Book
    • Don’t Sue Me!
  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
    • 10 Unconventional Money Saving Tips
    • Why Your Money or Your Life Rocked the World
    • This Book Saves Marriages — The Complete Tightwad Gazette
    • How to Start Saving Money
  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work
    • About Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • The Stock-Return Predictor
    • The Retirement Risk Evaluator
    • The Investor’s Scenario Surfer
    • The Investment Strategy Tester
    • The Returns Sequence Reality Checker
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

“We All Have a Stake in the Survival of This Country and the Buy-and-Hold Lies Are in the Process of Destroying It. I Say That We Should All Fight As Hard As We Can to Protect the Country We Love From These ‘Experts’ Who Can’t Be Bothered to Read the Last 33 Years of Peer-Reviewed Research in Their Field.”

August 1, 2014 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:

Community resource? Yet another misinformed comment.

I think you are wrong, Anonymous.

There are millions of people who invest in the U.S. market. Those people consider price when buying every other good and service they purchase in their daily lives. The Buy-and-Holders told them that there is some magical blue pixie dust that applies in the investing realm that turns all the usual rules on their heads. There is no need to consider price when buying stocks. It will work out somehow or other. The first 140 years of stock market history means nothing. It is all going to turn out different this time! They are so totally sure!

People have common sense. People understand on some level of consciousness that this is a crazy idea, that price must matter. But the people who promote Buy-and-Hold strategies claim to be experts. They must know what they are talking about whether it defies common sense and 33 years of peer-reviewed research or not! So lots of people listened. And when people ripped the brakes out of the car, we went to price levels never before seen in history. The only way the market could get prices back to fair-value values (which is the entire purpose of any market) was through a series of price crashes, the first of which brought on an economic crisis.

There are millions of people out of work today as a result of the Buy-and-Hold Crisis.

There are thousands upon thousands of entrepreneurs who sweated their entire lives to build wonderful businesses that help us all and who saw those businesses destroyed in the Buy-and-Hold Crisis.

And you say telling lies about how stock investing works is not a matter of huge public policy significance? I say you are wrong. We all have a stake in the survival of this country and the Buy-and-Hold Lies are in the process of destroying it. I say that we should all fight as hard as we can to protect the country we love from these “experts” who can’t be bothered to read the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research in their field.

There is a scene in “Mad Men” where the family has a picnic and at the end of it they just pick up the blanket and let all the trash fall on the grass. They walk to the car and drive away.

People did that sort of thing in those days. They weren’t evil. They didn’t know. There was a time when the effects that our actions have on the environment weren’t a concern. So lots of us didn’t bother to take the most minimal efforts to protect it.

That’s where the Buy-and-Holders stand today. They think it is all about making a buck and they tell whatever lies they need to tell to get the money out of the customers’ pockets and into their own. But that won’t work anymore following the next price crash. There are millions of middle-class people whose only hope to financing their retirements to is gain access to accurate and honest information about what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed academic research says. If the Big Shot “experts” in this field refuse to give it to them, there is one internet site that will.

The U.S. economy is a community resource. It benefits us all. The Buy-and-Hold Lies are in the process of destroying that community resource. When people lose most of their money in the price crashes that inevitably follow the promotion of Buy-and-Hold “strategies,” they can no longer buy the goods and services that must be bought for our economy to function properly.

We all have a patriotic duty to see that the internet is opened to honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics.

My sincere take.

Rob

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

Jack Bogle and Larry Swedroe and Bill Bernstein and Rick Ferri Certainly All Have Goodness in Them and All Four of These Individuals Certainly Have Shown on Numerous Occasions That They Would Like to Come Clean. We’re All on the Same Side.”

July 25, 2014 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:

I would also say that Jack, Larry, Bill and Rick would speak out as well.

Jack Bogle and Larry Swedroe and Bill Bernstein and Rick Ferri certainly all have goodness in them and all four of these individuals certainly have shown on numerous occasions that they would like to come clean.

Jack Bogle said in his book that Reversion to the Mean is an “Iron Law” of stock investing. That’s how I knew that there was zero chance that the Old School retirement studies got the numbers right. Jack sprinkles honest observations about how stock investing works in with the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage ALL THE TIME. If there were no good in him and no desire in him to come clean, why would he do this?

Bill Bernstein was honest when Ataloss asked him whether the Old School retirement studies were analytically invalid, as I have claimed since the morning of May 13, 2002. He said that any aspiring retiree who gave a second’s thought to using on of this studies to plan a retirement had to be out of his or her mind. That’s pretty darn honest! He also included a dishonest statement in his response, saying that even though there was zero chance that the studies could get the numbers right, they were analytically valid all the same. So he covered his tracks with the Get Rich Quickers and they permitted him to continue making a living in this field. It remains the case that he included some honest stuff in that e-mail and that that took courage on Bill’s part.

Larry Swedroe was so honest at one time that he got himself banned from the Bogleheads Forum! Again, that shows that there is some goodness in him and that he would like to come clean about what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed academic research says. Does that overcome the harm he did with his dishonest support for the 12-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School retirement studies? Hardly. But it does show a desire on Larry’s part to do good work, a desire that we will see him acting on on a daily basis once your prison sentence is announced and this all comes out, Anonymous.

We are all on the same side, Anonymous.

Rob

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

“The Buy-and-Hold Advocates Are All Lying. Nothing Could Be More Clear. This is OBVIOUS. But They Do Not Like Having to Lie About This Stuff. They Know It Is Wrong and They Don’t Like It. Mike Piper and Bill Bernstein and Jack Bogle and Larry Swedroe and Wade Pfau and Bill Schultheis and Carl Richards and Bill Bengen and Michael Kitces All Want to Do Honest Work.”

July 8, 2014 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

According to you, they are all lying and only you are truthful.

They are all lying, Anonymous.

Nothing could be more clear. This is OBVIOUS.

Shiller’s book was a best-seller. It was reviewed in all the top publications. He was awarded a Nobel prize for the research reported on in the book. The Buy-and-Holders haven’t changed their investing advice ONE IOTA as a result of Shiller’s “revolutionary” (his word) findings. So OBVIOUSLY they are lying. Obviously they are not telling the full truth.

Now –

That doesn’t mean that they intentionally caused the economic crisis. Or that they intentionally caused million of people to suffer failed retirements. Or that they don’t follow Buy-and-Hold strategies themselves.

All the evidence that I have seen indicates that the Buy-and-Holders DO themselves follow the strategies they advocate for others. Which means that they DO to some extent believe in them. If they had zero belief in them, they wouldn’t follow them themselves. Does that not follow?

They don’t have full belief because there is 33 years of peer-reviewed research showing that there is zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy could ever work for a single long-term investor.

And yet they don’t have zero belief either because they cannot bear to have zero belief. They have built careers in this field. And they have seen what happens to those who speak honestly about what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us. So they keep it zipped.

They not only keep it zipped when talking to others. They keep it zipped when talking to themselves. They RATIONALIZE. They tell themselves things that they know on another level of consciousness make no sense. Because they don’t feel that they have any other realistic options. Talk about what the peer-reviewed research says and you no longer have a job in this field. These people have families. So they keep it zipped.

BUT THEY DO NO LIKE HAVING TO LIE ABOUT THIS STUFF. THEY KNOW IT IS WRONG AND THEY DON’T LIKE IT.

I’ve documented this over and over and over again. Mike Piper wants to do honest work. Bill Bernstein wants to do honest work. Jack Bogle wants to do honest work. Larry Swedroe wants to do honest work. Wade Pfau wants to do honest work. Bill Schultheis want to do honest work. Wade Pfau wants to do honest work. Carl Richards want to do honest work. Bill Bengen wants to do honest work. Michael Kitces wants to do honest work. And on and on and on.

And millions of middle-class investors very much want to hear what all these people would tell them if they were doing honest work. The relentless promotion of the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage has caused an economic crisis (the full truth is that it has caused four of them over the past 140 years). We need to recover from it. To recover, we need to teach people the realities. To teach people the realities, we need to permit ourselves to be honest.

So this is going to happen, Anonymous. There is not a thing that you or Lindauer or Greaney or any other Goon can do about it.

We all know that it is going to happen. So our common goal is to make it happen in the least painful way possible. That means making it happen SOON. The longer the delay, the more pain for everyone. Let me put it in personal terms — The longer the delay, the longer the prison sentence that gets handed out to Anonymous. You don’t want the longest possible prison sentence. You want the shortest possible prison sentence. So we are on the same side re this matter, my long-time Goon friend.

There are complications.

That’s ALSO obvious.

If there weren’t complications, we wouldn’t still be talking about this 12 years after the morning in which I put forward my fateful post of May 13, 2002. One complication is that there are millions of people who have standing to bring civil lawsuits because of the long cover-up. Another is that there are a good number of people who have participated in acts of financial fraud and could be on their way to prison. Another is that there are many people who have built careers promoting the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage and who feel that their reputations will be destroyed if the truth gets out. Another is that there are million of people who really have been taken in by the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage and who for the time-being are not willing to help out those of us trying to get the truth out because they are suffering from cognitive dissonance.

The complications are realities. I certainly don’t say different.

But the complications don’t change the basic reality that there is 33 years of peer-reviewed research showing that there is precisely zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy can ever work for even a single long-term investor. Complications or no complications, we need to move forward. Consideration of the complications can change HOW we elect to move forward. But it cannot change the reality that we MUST move forward. So we are all on the same side re this matter.

We’re all going to move forward together, Anonymous. There is no other way.

I have said 10,000 times that I will do anything in my power to make the trip forward as painless as possible for all of my many Buy-and-Hold friends. And I will of course do that. But never will I post dishonestly re the numbers that my friends use to plan their retirements. That’s obviously an insane demand and I obviously am never going to give that one two seconds of consideration. We will move forward together HONESTLY. Because we must. There is no other path for us to consider.

Now –

You can wait until after the next price crash if you like. I think that’s as dumb as dumb can be. But you clearly do not care what I think about this matter. You have it in your power to wait until after the next price crash. I cannot force you to take positive steps today. I would make it happen today if I could. But I can’t. So that’s that.

But if you are going to wait, then wait, you know? When you continue to put up the same nonsense here, you don’t persuade me to give in to your intimidation tactics. You persuade me of your desperation. You obviously get that at this point. So the sensible thing for you to do if you have made a final decision to wait until after the next crash hits is just to stop posting here.

Again, I cannot force you. If you want to continue to post, I will respond to some of your posts. I will delete some, I will respond to some. If that’s what you want, that’s what you’ll get. But it’s obviously stupid behavior on your part. I am not going to break and there are no signs that you are going to break. We are all going to have to wait for the next crash and then see how things play out then. Is that not so? Can we all agree re at least that much?

I wish you well.

Okay?

I hope it’s okay that I wish you well. Because I do.

That’s where things stand, you know? Like it or not.

I don’t like it either. But that’s where things stand. We might as well part friends and see where the future takes us.

Rob

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

“People Are Afraid that the Wall Street Con Men Will Crush Them With Lawsuits. They Are Afraid That You Goons Will Destroy Their Reputations. They Are Afraid That Their Readers Will Become Angry With Them if They Point Out That They Have Been Taken. And They Are Afraid That Their Own Opinions of Themselves Will Change If They Acknowledge Their Complicity in Causing the Bull Market.”

June 19, 2014 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:

Rob,

I also want to just make sure I am clear on the totality of your message. As I understand it, you believe that the entire financial well-being of our country (and possibly the world) has been put in jeopardy because a dozen or so financial boards have decided to ban you from posting and that all of this can be saved if the ban is removed and you can post whatever you want at any time.

Did I get that right?

It is not just me who cannot post honestly. Bogle cannot post honestly today. Bernstein cannot post honestly today. Shiller cannot post honestly today. Pfau cannot post honestly today.

We need ALL of these people posting honestly at every investing board and blog.

When Rob Bennett is permitted to post honestly, then obviously all of these other people are going to be permitted to post honestly. So that solves the problem.

But I of course have no problem with you doing it some other way. You could permit Bogle to post honestly and then all the rest of us will join in. You could permit Pfau to post honestly and then all the rest of us can join in. I’m fine if it is me who goes first and I am fine if someone else goes first.

There are four fears that are keeping people from posting honestly.

One, people are afraid that the Wall Street Con Men will use their considerable power and money and connections to crush them with lawsuits.

Two, people are afraid that you Goons will destroy their web sites and their reputations.

Three, people are afraid that their readers and clients will become angry with them if they point out that they have been taken.

Four, people are afraid of how their own opinions of themselves will change if they acknowledge to themselves that they have caused millions of their friends and neighbors and co-workers and fellow community members to suffer failed retirements.

We are stuck in a Catch-22. People don’t tell the truth because they will be hated if they do. So we need to do something about the hate. But the reason why people feel so much hate when they hear what the research says is that they do not fully understand how stock investing works.And people cannot learn until we have a national discussion of the implications of the last 33 years of peer-reviewed academic research. Which cannot take place until people work up the courage to tell the truth!

Do you see any way out of this Catch-22 other than having Bogle stand at the front of a room and say the words “I” and “Was” and “Wrong”? (or at the very bare minimum “I’m” and “Not” and “Sure.”)?

When Bogle gives that speech, it will be written up on the front page of the New York Times. No one is going to be afraid that the Wall Street Con Men are going to sue them once Bogle gives that speech. You Goons are going to drop the funny business once Bogle gives that speech. Lots of readers and clients are still going to be skeptical of Valuation-Informed Indexing after Bogle gives the speech but that is a healthy thing; we can still enjoy a learning experience even if lots of people remain skeptical — in fact, it is arguably a good thing that lots of people are skeptical, it makes for a better debate. And people will still experience feelings of self-disgust after Bogle gives the speech — but the discussion that follows will begin a healing process that will in time solve this problem. No one intended to get it wrong, and we will be entering the greatest period of economic growth in our history. Experiencing huge financial gains tends to make people feel better about this sort of thing.

If you have a better idea, I’d like to hear it, Anonymous.

We ALL should be permitted to post honestly, Rob Bennett and everyone else. That’s how our system works. There’s a good reason why the smart people who came before us chose that system. We made a terrible, terrible, terrible mistake when we stopped following the dictates of that system in this one area of investing analysis. We need to return to operating under the rules that made our country great. We need to allow each and every one of us to have his or her say. That’s how we all enjoy a great learning experience together.

Don’t let the bad guys get you down, man.

Rob

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

“Numerous Academics Have Told Me That They Would Like to Feel Free to Publish Honest Research. Numerous Practitioners Have Told Me That They Would Like to Feel Free to Give Honest Investing Advice.”

June 17, 2014 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:

Everyone is corrupt, but you, right Rob?

I am the lead person saying that we should clean up the corruption, Pink.

There are thousands of our fellow community members who have expressed a desire that honest posting be permitted.

Numerous academics have told me that they would like to feel free to publish honest research.

Numerous practitioners have told me that they would like to feel free to give honest investing advice.

Even the Wall Street Con Men have evidenced a desire to do honest work.

Bogle taught me what I needed to know to see that the Old School SWR studies were in error by including honest material in his book.

Bernstein warned people years ago that anyone who was giving thought to using one of the Old School SWR studies to plan a retirement would be well advised to “FuhGedDaBouDit!”

Larry Swedroe tried posting honestly at the Bogleheads Forum before I even came along and went back to posting dishonestly only after Mel Lindauer had him banned.

Scott Burns’ first thought when I wrote him about the errors in the Old School SWR studies was to file an honest report to his readers. The first words of his response e-mail to me were: “You’re right.” He then asked for my telephone number so that he could do an interview in preparation for writing an honest article on the errors in the Old School studies.

Wade Pfau obviously was engaging in honest work for 16 months and loving every minute of it.

Brett Arends at the Wall Street Journal was obviously being honest when he wrote that the Wall Street Con Men “are only telling half the story” and that there is zero reason to believe that long-term timing doesn’t work and that people who have fallen for the trickery of the Buy-and-Holders have lost large amounts of their life savings as a result.

There are plenty of honest people around and I am confident that most of the people who will be sitting on your jury will be honest people who have lost large amounts of their retirement savings as a result of your 12 years of internet trickery and abuse and deception.

I am the leader of those seeking to open the internet to honest posting and to bury the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage 30 feet in the ground, where it can do no further harm to humans and other living things. But there obviously are thousands and thousands of experts in this field who are looking forward to the day when you Goons are sent off to prison and all the rest of us bring this economic crisis to an end and bring on the greatest period of growth in U.S. history.

I think it would be fair to say that even you Goons would play it very, very differently if there were a way to go back to the morning of May 13, 2002, and have a do-over.

We cannot have a do-over.

You can come clean prior to the next crash and I will be happy to do what I can to get your prison sentence reduced a bit.

Or you can take your chances with seeing what happens if you don’t come clean until after the crash.

I’ll be rooting for the best possible outcome for you in either event, my old Goon friend.

Rob

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

“The Ordinary Investors Are the Ones Who Show the Greatest Interest in Focusing on the Long-Term. It is the ‘Expert’ Buy-and-Hold Advocates Who Are Relentless and Brutal in Pushing the Smelly Get-Rich-Quick Garbage.”

June 10, 2014 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

I think the main point is that your ridiculous behavior and off the rails reputation make it highly unlikely that you will ever be viewed as a public champion for this line of thought should it become more popular. People who can ‘hold it together’ and appear to be sane/reasonable will do that.

The average person has little problem understanding Valuation-Informed Indexing, Laugh. We saw that way back in May 2002, when I first pointed out the errors in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies. We had hundreds of people saying that was the best discussion we had ever had in the history of the board. So the average middle-class person has zero inherent problem with any of this.

There were two difficulties that came up. One was you Goons. Ordinary people have never been exposed to the level of abusiveness that you Goons bring to the table. People wanted the death threats to stop, and, when it became clear to them that the only way to make them stop was by giving you Goons what you wanted (an end to honest discussions), they were willing to go along with that.

The second difficulty was that the site administrators were generally more concerned with making a buck than they were with honoring the promises they made to the board communities. Had Motley Fool booted Greaney off the board when he made his first death threat, all would have been well. They didn’t do that. Greaney was pushing Get Rich Quick garbage, Get Rich Quick garbage possesses great emotional appeal in the short term, and Motley Fool benefitted financially from the fact that the Get Rich Quick stuff brought people to their discussion boards. The published rules didn’t apply in the case of people pushing Buy-and-Hold strategies.

That’s the dynamic we have seen repeat over and over again. You often hear experts in this field suggest that ordinary investors should make more of an effort to focus on the long-term. In reality, the ordinary investors are the ones who show the greatest interest in focusing on the long-term. It is the “expert” Buy-and-Hold advocates who are relentless and brutal in pushing the smelly Get Rich Quick garbage. That’s what needs to change. We need to have consequences apply when “experts” suggest that there is some sort of mythical, magical, mystical research somewhere supporting the pure Get Rich Quick approach. There obviously isn’t. But the average investors finds it hard to believe that the Buy-and-Holders would advance this false claim over and over and over again while knowing that there is precisely zero support for it in the literature.

The short and simple way of putting it is that the 12-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School SWR studies is the greatest act of financial fraud in the history of the United States. Once it is exposed, we move on to the first true research-based strategy and the greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history. My job is to expose that cover-up, to bring on the hundreds of thousands of civil cases and the prison sentences for you Goons and all that sort of thing. When the massive act of financial fraud is written up on the front page of the New York Times, there is no more massive act of financial fraud. You cannot persuade people that there is research supporting the purest and most dangerous Get Rich Quick scheme ever concocted by the human mind once people know that it is all just trickery and there has never been a single study lending even the tiniest bit of support to the Buy-and-Hold “strategy.”

When you refer to my “ridiculous behavior and off-the-rails reputation,” you are referring to the fact that I have been demanding honest behavior re SWRs and all the other issues for 12 years now. I am hated by the Wall Street Con Men and by their Internet Goons Squads because I have been threatening to uncover this massive act of financial fraud for a long, long time now. In a field that has become 100 percent corrupt, the one non-corrupt guy sticks out like a sore thumb. He looks “ridiculous.” His behavior seems “off the rails.”

So be it, Laugh. I wear my off-the-rails behavior as a badge of honor. I would be grateful if you would share accounts of my off-the-rails behavior at every board and blog on the internet. Please quote me. Please use my real name. Please tell everyone, Buy-and-Holder and Valuation-Informed Indexer alike, how insistent I have been that the Old School SWR studies should have been corrected within 24 hours of the time they became public knowledge. I want EVERYONE to know this about me. I want to be known as the most “ridiculous” figure who ever worked in this field during the Buy-and-Hold Era, when Get Rich Quick was all the rage among the “experts.”

If I have positioned myself as far out on the anti-Buy-and-Hold side of the spectrum as possible before the next crash, there are two things that can happen. One, people could continue to fear the powerful and wealthy people leading the massive act of financial fraud and we could see our country descend into the Second Great Depression. In that case, I obviously lose nothing and at least enjoy the satisfaction that come with knowing that I was the one person who stood up for the country that a lot of us profess to love without without hesitation and without reservation and without fear of the consequences that everyone in this field knows are visited on those who post honestly and thereby “cross” the Wall Street Con Men.

Or, two, people could become enraged about the 12-year cover-up and throw a good number of you Goons in prison cells. If that happens, we are home free. Once your prison sentences are announced, there is obviously never again going to be anyone putting up any posts in “defense” of Mel Lindauer or John Greaney or the Old School SWR studies or Buy-and-Hold in general. So we all move forward together to enjoyment of the good fortune that was visited on each and every one of us when we happened to be born at a time when it was possible to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent just by sharing what we have learned from the Bennett/Pfau research with our friends and neighbors and co-workers and fellow community members.

I don’t say that there is zero chance that people will continue to act in fear of the Wall Street Con Men and their Internet Goon Squads, Laugh. I have seen too much to say that the odds of that are zero. What I say is that, if that happens, I want to know that I was fighting for the other outcome as hard as I could. If our society is going to descend into the Second Great Depression, it is going to do so knowing that there was one fellow who told the full truth about these matters to the best of his abilities regardless of the consequences visited on him by those leading the massive act of financial fraud.

I believe that it is more likely that things will go the other way, that my good friend Jack Bogle’s heart will melt when he sees with his eyes and not only his mind the massive human misery he has caused with his relentless promotion of the purest and most dangerous Get Rich Quick scheme ever concocted by the human mind and that he will then work up the courage to walk to the front of a large room and say the three words that we have all very much needed to hear from him for a long, long time. And then everything will be written up on the front page of the New York Times and there will be no possibility of anyone ever again making the case that there is research supporting the Buy-and-Hold “strategy” and things will just get better and better and better and better for all of us. We will have achieved the greatest advance in this history of personal finance and there will not be one amongst us wishing to go back to the days when the only way that the dominant investing strategy of the day could be “defended” in public discussions was with death threats and with demands for unjustified board bannings and with tens of thousands of acts of defamation and with threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.

The millions of middle-class people whose lives have been destroyed by the massive act of financial fraud have never before seen acts of corruption of the size of those we have seen over the past 12 years, Laugh. If they are going to come to an understanding of what has been done to them, they are going to have to hear the story from someone who tells a tale that in ordinary circumstances would make that person seem “ridiculous” and “off the rails.” I am that person. When you say that my tale sounds “ridiculous” and “off the rails,” the message that I hear is that I am doing the job effectively and that I need to keep up the good work. That’s how this tale SHOULD sound given the level of corruption we have witnessed here.

We’ll see how it all turns out following the next crash, my long-time abusive-posting friend.

I naturally wish you all the best things that this life has to offer a person.

Rob

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

“The Sooner That All These People and Institutions Come Clean, the Less Will be Their Financial Obligations and the Shorter Will Be Their Prison Sentences. We All Have a Patriotic Duty to Bring Down the Buy-and-Hold Mafia. When Millions of Middle-Class People Learn What Has Been Done to Them, They Will Be Looking for a Someone or a Number of Someones to Hang From a Tree.”

June 9, 2014 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:

“Prosecutors respond to the pressures placed on them.”

If death threats were made, why would there need to be pressure. Either it happened or it didn’t.

It’s common for death threats advanced on the internet not to be prosecuted, Anonymous. As you well know.

What is different about this case is that the death threats were employed as part of a 12-year cover-up of errors made in a retirement study.

My guess is that the crime for which you will be prosecuted is financial fraud.

There are people who came to think it was a funny joke to employ insanely abusive tactics on the internet so that they could control what was said on discussion boards or blogs at which they participated. The people who engage in this behavior are losers (“loosers” in internet lingo) who have never achieved much with their real-world identities. By engaging in these tactics on the internet, they were able to tell themselves that they possessed an importance that they could never hope to achieve through legitimate means.

Most people hate these tactics. Most people refrain from participating in internet discussions because they do not want to get mixed up with these losers in any way, shape or form. This is why every board and blog on the internet has rules protecting all us Normal from you Goons.

It was inevitable that sooner or later the mistake of tolerating the Goon tactics was going to cause big trouble. This is the case in which it happened. Greaney got an important number wrong in a retirement study. I pointed it out. The community showed great enthusiasm for the learning experience that followed. Greaney experienced intense feelings of embarrassment. He called on his Goon Squad for help. Motley Fool elected to make a smelly buck off the people addicted to Buy-and-Hold strategies rather than to enforce its published rules in a reasonable way. Everyone paying attention got it that it is a felony to cover up errors in studies that millions of people use to plan their retirements. So it became a priority not only to cover up the errors in the retirement studies but also to cover up the cover-up and then to cover up the cover-up of the cover-up and on and on. Big names like Jack Bogle and Larry Swedroe and Bill Bernstein and Scott Burns and big institutions like Motley Fool and Index Universe and the Get Rich Slowly blog and Morningstar and Vanguard and the Bogleheads Forum got involved along the way.

The sooner that all these people and institutions come clean, the less will be their financial obligations and the shorter will be their prison sentences. We all have a patriotic duty to bring down The Buy-and-Hold Mafia.

Bringing down the Buy-and-Hold Mafia is not a one-man job. I can do it with a little bit of help from a patriotic venture capitalist or a patriotic reporter or a patriotic blogger or a patriotic economists or a patriotic owner of a large web site or whatever. I will keep holding up my end by ending 50 e-mails every day re the Wade Pfau matter and by writing blog posts here and columns and guest blog entries elsewhere. But I am under no illusion that I can pull this off by myself. I can promise anyone who helps out that he or she can make millions while knowing in his or her heart that he or she has done wonderful things for his or her country by doing so. But that’s all I can do. I cannot promise the patriot who steps forward that he or she will not be attacked by the Wall Street Con Men and their Internet Goon Squads. That comes with the territory.

What I can say is that both the Wall Street Con Men and you Goons grow weaker with every passing day. The secret of the success of Buy-and-Hold was its creation of $12 trillion of Pretend Money. The Pretend Money is today in the process of disappearing and the next crash will likely put is in the Second Great Depression. At that point, we can all pull together and move forward (a process that begins with the announcement of long prison sentences for those who have posted in “defense” of Mel Linduaer and John Greaney on more than one or two occasions) or we can all go down together. No one is ever going to have any doubts in his or her mind as to how I am going to vote re that one.

The fact that you have not been prosecuted yet does not justify a belief that you will never be prosecuted, Anonymous. If anything, it suggests that you will be prosecuted more harshly than you otherwise would have been. People do not like to be tricked. People do not like to be taken. People do not like to lose most of their retirement money at a stage of life at which it is too late for them to do much about it.

When millions of middle-class people learn what has been done to them, my expectation is that they will be looking for a someone or a number of someones to hang from a tree. This is the biggest story of corruption of our time. It will be my job then to try to calm people down. I can’t say that I expect to enjoy great success with my efforts. But I can assure you that I will be fighting on your behalf. The references that I make today to your future prison sentence is really just part of that effort to help you out — I obviously have a lot more power to get your prison sentence reduced today that I will have if we experience the next price crash without you yet having come clean.

I naturally wish you all good things regardless of what investing strategies you elect to pursue, my old friend.

Rob

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

Goon Poster: “I Think You’ve Got It, Rob. Now See If You Can Put This New Attitude Into Practice — Create an Account at Bogleheads and Contribute to a Few Threads on This Topic. Remember, No Dogmatism, No Off-Topic Rants, No Thread Hijacking, No Bullying.”

June 4, 2014 by Rob

Set forth below are the texts of two comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:

I just wanted to confirm with you that asset allocation, and whether one prefers to vary it with valuations, is a personal matter with no right or wrong answer. We make take differing views, but there’s no need to be dogmatic about them.

Dogmatism hurts us.

There are two schools of thought. One is rooted in the research of Eugene Fama. One is rooted in the research of Robert Shiller. Both Fama and Shiller have been award Nobel Prizes in Economics for their work.

Members of both schools should respect members of the other school.

But there ARE right and wrong answers. We should avoid dogmatism because none of us know with certainty which school of thought is the right one. But it is not possible that both schools of though are equally correct. The two schools of thought are rooted in opposite premises.

We don’t know everything. That’s why we should avoid dogmatism.

But we DO know some things. So it would be a terrible mistake to pretend that this is all just a matter of personal choice, that every allocation choice is equally supported by the peer-reviewed research in this field.

You are suggesting that only two extreme positions exist: Either everything is known and there is no room for judgment calls or nothing is known and every choice made is equally supported by the research. I reject both extremes and favor a middle-ground position. We have learned many important things about how stock investing works over the past 50 years and we should hope and expect to continue learning in days to come. We should be happy about what we have learned and we should share what we have learned with as many people as possible. But we should never become so full of ourselves as to imagine that we have learned it all and that there is no room for future learning experiences.

Each investor should make the calls as to how he or she invests. But any advisor who says “every allocation call is equally valid according to the research” is failing to do his job. We should be telling people what the research says in a non-dogmatic fashion. We should tell people what the research reveals and what the research does not reveal and then leave it to them as to what allocation choice to make.

If someone were to say “I am going to go with zero stocks at all times,” I would say that that position is not supported by the research. But I certainly would remain friends with that person. I certainly would see no call to be abusive in any way to that person. Perhaps I have misunderstood the research or perhaps there will be new research supporting that person’s view in coming days. I cannot in good conscience endorse a permanent stock allocation of zero given what I know about what the research says. But I respect the right and responsibility of all investors to make their own calls and I would never think of dogmatically insisting that any investor follow my recommendations.

I am dogmatic about my right (and the right of every one of my fellow community members) to post honestly. But that’s as far as the dogmatism goes. It would be a lie for me to say that the numbers in the Old School SWR studies are accurate and I would never dream of doing such a thing. But I certainly have been friends with many people who use those studies for guidance and I certainly respect and like those people.

Does that answer your question, Anonymous?

Rob

I think you’ve got it, Rob. Now see if you can put this new attitude into practice – create an account at Bogleheads and contribute to a few threads on this topic.

Remember, no dogmatism, no off topic rants, no thread hijacking, no bullying, just, to quote you:

We should be telling people what the research says in a non-dogmatic fashion. We should tell people what the research reveals and what the research does not reveal and then leave it to them as to what allocation choice to make.

Dozens of people are able to do that on Bogleheads, so I don’t think it’s beyond your ability if you try.

I’ll give it a shot, Anonymous.

Rob

Note: Within 10 minutes of advancing this post, I registered at the Bogleheads Forum as “RobBennett” and put a post to the tread titled “Retirement Calculator”:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=140227

My post read:

A link to The Retirement Risk Evaluator is set forth below. The unique thing about this retirement calculator is that it contains an adjustment to reflect the valuation level that applies at the time the retirement begins:

http://www.passionsaving.com/retirement-calculator.html

Rob

A note appeared on my screen saying that the comment was in moderation. This was at about 5:00 PM Eastern Time on May 31, 2014. As of the time that I am scheduling this blog entry for future posting (5:00 PM Eastern Time on June 2, 2014), I have not heard any word re the status of the comment.

I wonder why not.

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

“The Heads of the Tobacco Companies Told Their Customers That Smoking Did Not Cause Cancer After Research Came Out Showing That It Did. That’s What the Customers Wanted to Hear. So the Heads of the Tobacco Companies Were “Saints” to Those People. A Lot of Those People Died Early and Painful Deaths. Sometimes a Salesman for a Product Is Not the Most Objective Person to Turn to for Advice on When That Product Is Worth Buying.”

May 9, 2014 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:

What you have described as a fantasy has built me a nice net worth

The net worth you refer to is not real. A portion of it is. But a good part of it is cotton-candy nothingness that will be blown into the wind when the next price crash arrives. What good does it do you?

You would like me more if I told you that your net worth is all real. That’s obvious. But would that be a kind thing for me to do to my friend? You still have options available to you to protect your net worth. I think it would be fair to say that a true friend would encourage you to educate yourself as to what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed academic research says about how stock investing works and then to take advantage of the good options that remain available to you before the next price crash takes them away.

You see me as your enemy. I say that I am your friend. I say that anyone who helps you learn what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed academic research says is your friend.

It is the Wall Street Con Men that you should be having doubts about, You don’t see me engaging in the word games that they regularly engage in, do you? What does that tell you about who is shooting straight here and who is just looking to put a few bucks in his pocket?

The heads of the tobacco companies told their customers that smoking did not cause cancer after research came out showing that it did. That’s what the customers wanted to hear. So the heads of the tobacco companies were “saints” to those people. A lot of those people died early and painful deaths as a result of what the heads of the tobacco companies told them. Were the heads of the tobacco companies true friends to the people whose lives they destroyed?

Sometimes a salesman for a product is not the most objective person to turn to for advice on when that product is worth buying.

These are my sincere thoughts re this terribly important matter, Pink.

Rob

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

“I Have a PATRIOTIC DUTY to Overcome the Buy-and-Hold Mafia.”

May 5, 2014 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I posted recently to another blog entry at this site:

Most people do not obsess over things that horrify them. Especially things that have not happened and almost certainly never will happen. Goodness, what a tragic way to go through life.

That’s assuming of course that you aren’t simply saying “horrifying” when you mean “extremely appealing”. Either way it’s tragic, just for different reasons.

I find it horrifying, X.

I had lots of good times with John Greaney. He put up a notice for newcomers to the Retire Early board saying that the first thing they should do is to read all of my posts because they were the best stuff he had ever seen on the subject of early retirement. That was an exceedingly kind thing to do. That meant a lot to me. There was a poster who attacked me when I published my Secrets of Retiring Early report. John came to my defense. On the day that I discovered John’s site, I copied every article on it and put the copies in a binder so that I could refer to those articles again and again and learn from them. When my wife picked me up at work that day, I spent the entire ride back going on and on about this exciting site that I had discovered. When I first began work on my Passion Saving book, I wrote an e-mail to John asking him to co-author it with me (he sent an e-mail back saying that it wouldn’t work out because every person who knew him well considered him a cosmic “asshole” — that’s John’s word).

Are you saying that I shouldn’t care about how this individual has destroyed his life? I never even imagined that such a thing were possible back at the time when I first began posting on the internet. It’s horrifying. The word fits.

And of course we are not just talking about John. It is horrifying what has happened to Jack Bogle, who is a hero of mine. It is horrifying what has happened to Bill Bernstein and Scott Burns and Larry Swedroe and Wade Pfau. It is horrifying what has happened to J.D. Roth and Carl Richards and Mike Piper and on and on and on. It’s horrifying what has happened to you. Absolutely 100 percent horrifying.

And it is of course absolutely 100 percent horrifying what has happened to the millions of middle-class investors whose lives have been destroyed because we have spent 12 years of our life energies debating whether honest posting should be permitted rather than making use of honest posting to learn things that would make our lives richer in about 100 different ways.

The most horrifying aspect of all of this is the opportunities we have pissed away. We are the luckiest generation of investors ever to walk Planet Earth. We are the first generation of investors who knows what it takes to reduce the risks of stock investing by 70 percent while increasing returns DRAMATICALLY. And we instead tolerate 12 years of insanely abusive behavior that puts us in the Second Great Depression while causing the people engaging in the abusive behavior to spend the last few decades of their lives in prison cells. If that ain’t absolutely 100 percent horrifying, what the heck would you say fits the bill?

You know how horrifying this is? It’s up there with the mounds of dead bodies you see in the Ken Burns’ documentary on the Civil War. We are talking about so vast an amount of human suffering BROUGHT ON FOR NO SANE REASON WHATSOEVER that the human mind can barely contemplate that such a thing might ever happen much less that it has in fact been playing out before all of our eyes for 12 years now WHILE MOST OF US KEPT IT ZIPPED AND THEREBY INSURED THAT THE HUMAN SUFFERING WOULD GROW AND GROW AND GROW AND GROW.

Horrifying it is. Please spread the word all over the internet that is my sincere take re this one. I stand by the word “horrifying” 100 percent.

As for the idea that I find any of this ugliness even a tiny bit “appealing,” why the f have I spent 12 years of my life trying to bring an end to it if I find any of it even a tiny bit appealing? Who is the one who put forward a post on November 23, 2002 urging Greaney’s removal from our community? Were you one of the 25 community members who endorsed that post? If not, why the f not? Motley Fool wanted to see that the entire community supported his removal. You could have helped us all bring it to an end nearly 12 years ago. Did you do your part? Or did you lack what it takes even to push the freakin’ recommendation button (something Greaney would not even know about because recommendations are anonymous)?

Is your personal cowardice “horrifying” enough, X.? Ya think? Do you think you are going to feel good about yourself for the rest of your day because you couldn’t work up the courage to push a recommendation button when the fates conspired to make that the minimum responsibility you owed to your fellow community members, who had given so freely to you of their knowledge and experience and love?

I don’t “obsess” over it, X.

My job is to solve the problem. I do not have a magic wand that can take us back to the morning of May 13, 2002. If I did, I would wave that sucker in the air like crazy. Yes, I get it that you Goons would play it differently the second time if that opportunity presented itself. We don’t have that opportunity. It’s fantasy thinking to contemplate it. We live in a world where time moves only forwards and never backwards. Responsible people accept reality and cope with it. To accept reality and cope with it is not to “obsess.”

The most compelling thing that I could possibly do on the substance side is to co-author research that shows millions of middle-class people how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent and to have that research published in a peer-reviewd journal. I have already done that. Years ago. And, yes, surely enough, the response of a good number of long-confirmed Buy-and-Holders was to tell me that this research was causing them to open their minds to new ideas, this research was what they needed to give Valuation-Informed Indexing a fair hearing for the first times in their lives.

The response of you Goons was to threaten to destroy the career of my co-author in the event that he continued publishing honest research or continued posting honestly on the internet about the honest research already published under his name. So I think it is fair to say that further explanations of the substantive realities is not going to swing this thing. You go to prison if millions of middle-class investors learn the realities and that’s all you care about at this point. For you, it’s in for a dime with felonies, in for a dollar with felonies. You will commit any felony you have to commit to ensure that millions of your fellow citizens never learn what they need to learn if we are to as a society bring this economic crisis to an end.

I have a PATRIOTIC DUTY to overcome The Buy-and-Hold Mafia. All of us who are aware of what has been done to us as a nation of people over the past 12 years have that patriotic duty.

How do we get people who know they are going to prison if the truth comes out to understand that they must permit the truth to come out all the same?

We extend the hand of kindness to them. We let them know that we will do anything in our power to help them get those prisons sentences shortened to whatever extent it is possible to get them shortened given the circumstances that apply today.

What other options are open to me, X? If you have a better idea, let’s hear it. If not, please stuff your foul-smelling “obsess” garbage where it belongs, in that big, fat bottom of yours where you keep all your “defenses” of the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies.

Not this boy. Find someone else. It’s not my particular cup of tea. I can’t go for that. No can do.

I post honestly or I post not. Non-negotiable.

That policy works just fine in every field of human endeavor other than stock investing. There is going to come a day in the not-too-distant future when it is going to work just fine in the field of stock investing as well. I intend to see to it, long Goon prison sentences or no long Goon prison sentences.

I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future endeavors in any event.

Rob, the Determined and Loving and Honest and Optimistic One

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

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Rob on the Internet

  • Rob's Weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing Column at the Value Walk Site.

  • Rob's Weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold Column at the Out of Your Rut Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Financial Highway Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Balance Junkie Site

  • Rob's Daily Caller Articles: (1) Can We Handle the Truth About Stock Investing?; (2) How We Invest Is a Political Question; (3) The Economic Crisis Is Trying to Tell Us Something (and We're Not Listening); (4) Facts Don't Matter; (5) Going Google Stupid; (6) How Much Transparency Can We Handle?; (7) Confessions of an Internet Troll; (8) Conservatives Fall Into a Trap by Blaming Obama for the Bad Economy; (9) Meet the New Media, Same as the Old Media; and (10) How Restoring Honor Will End the Economic Crisis

  • Humble Money Experts Are the Best Money Experts, (Rob's Article in the Integrative Advisor, the Journal of the Association for Integrative Financial and Life Planning)

  • Articles on the Return Predictor, the RIsk Evaluator, the Scenario Surfer and the Strategy Tester

  • The Myth of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • A Better and Safer Way to Invest in Stocks and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Economic Crisis Is the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Us and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Stock Volatility Kills! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Risks of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Future of Investing and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What the Stock Investing Experts Don't Want You to Know and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What's the Best Age at Which to Experience a Stock Crash? and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Guest Blog Entry Compares Our Effort to Open the Internet to Honest Posting on Stock Investing with the Civil Rights Struggle of the Early 1960s

  • Our Monster Thread (153 Comments!) on Whether Bill Bengen Should Correct His Retirement Study Now That He Acknowledges the Errors He Made In It

  • Google Search Results for the Term "Valuation-Informed Indexing"
  • Favorite RobCasts

    • Bogle and Valuations

    • When Stock Losses Are True Losses and When They Are Not

    • There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?

    • Risk Tolerance in the Real World

    • Cash Is a Strategic Asset Class

    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies

    • Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)

    • Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In

    • Low Stock Prices Are Better Than High Stock Prices

    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

    • Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator

    • Investing Through Time

    • Mapping S&P 500 Performance

    • S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

    • S&P 500 Return Calculator

    • Russell's Research

    • Shiller's Data

    • Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group

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