feed twitter twitter facebook

A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Contact Rob
    • Rob’s Book
    • Don’t Sue Me!
  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
    • 10 Unconventional Money Saving Tips
    • Why Your Money or Your Life Rocked the World
    • This Book Saves Marriages — The Complete Tightwad Gazette
    • How to Start Saving Money
  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work
    • About Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • The Stock-Return Predictor
    • The Retirement Risk Evaluator
    • The Investor’s Scenario Surfer
    • The Investment Strategy Tester
    • The Returns Sequence Reality Checker
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

“When I Was Checking In At the Hotel, J.D. Roth Was Sitting Nearby With A Group Of People Talking And He Called Out To Me”

April 2, 2012 by Rob

I discussed the reaction I received to my investing ideas at the Financial Bloggers Conference in a recent comment put to the Goon Central board. The comment was advanced on a thread titled Tweets on Defamatory Content:

Say, Rob, did you notice that people tended to not go out of their way to include you in conversations – in fact, they tended to edge away?

No.

There is indeed discomfort about the investing issue. People don’t say “I am going to write about that at my blog when I get home” or “Tell me exactly what happened, I want to know the complete story here” or “I am going to let all my friends know about this, this is important stuff.”

To that extent, the suggestion you put forward here represents reality. This topic causes 95 percent of the people who hear about it to feel intense discomfort. Some try to hide it. A small percentage act like out-and-out goons (I didn’t meet any like that at the conference, but it could be that they made an effort to stay away from me). Most remain low-key and do express shock re the obviously shocking stuff (death threats) but don’t ask the follow-up questions that you would expect to hear if they were letting in the significance to their own portfolios and to our economic system as a whole of the message they are hearing.

I of course acknowledge that this reaction is strange. It is also highly consistent. I am not describing a sometime thing. I am describing an almost-always thing.

But, no, people did not edge away in the way you describe. For example, when I was checking in at the hotel, J.D. Roth was sitting nearby with a group of people talking and he called out to me. He didn’t have to do that. He knows my views on investing. He called out and invited me over voluntarily.

So I sat with those people. Todd Tressider was one of them. He was in the process of writing his long piece on SWRs. So that got the discussion started on my favorite issue. As part of that discussion, I told two women bloggers in the group about the death threats, etc. Both expressed shock and then the discussion turned to other subjects (as part of the phenomenon described above). When it got to dinner time,  the two women bloggers and me and a man blogger agreed to go to dinner together (J.D. and Todd had gotten into conversations with other people). There was no attempt to exclude me or anything like that. Our conversation was warm and engaging.

I’ve exchanged e-mails with J.D. and with Todd in the months since. There HAVE been disagreements expressed in those conversations. But not hostility. I think there is less warmth than there would be if the disagreements were not present — they are afraid to get too close because that would require them to take a stronger position on the honestzzz posting matter than they feel prepared to take today. So there IS a distance that otherwise wouldn’t be there. But it would not be right to say that they are avoiding me. Todd has called me on the phone unsolicited two times. Would someone trying to avoid someone punch in that person’s number on the telephone? That makes no sense.

Is there distance? Yes.

Is there discomfort? Yes.

Are people experiencing confusion? Yes.

Are people uncertain how to proceed? Yes.

Are people running away from Rob Bennett, saying “he’s crazy” or “he’s dangerous”? No. Only the Goons are pretending to do that.

Actually, it’s beginning to play out the other way around. THe Normals are showing more indications that they are feeling discomfort in the presence of the Goons.

I had a Guest Blog at Consumerism Commentary the other day. You Goons almost always try to disrupt such super discussions. There were no Goon posts. My guess is that you tried and that your posts were deleted by the site owner. That’s what we need to see. That’s what we should have seen the first time you came forward with your ugliness at Motley Fool. If people are starting to react that way, we are very much traveling on the right track, albeit slowly as all get-out.

Rob

 

Filed Under: Intimidation of VII Advocates Tagged With: Financial Bloggers Conference, Get Rich Slowly, J.D. Roth

“I Cannot Post Dishonestly on SWRs…I Don’t Have Any Wiggle Room — It’s a Numerical Calculation”

June 29, 2010 by Rob

Yesterday’s blog entry provided the text of an e-mail sent to me on April 20, 2009, by J.D. Roth, owner of the Get Rich Slowly blog.

I responded by saying: “Thanks for your response and thanks for considering the idea. I’ll send you a possible Guest Blog Entry in the next day or two. You can of course decide on reading it whether it offers value to your readers or not.

I followed with a Guest Blog Entry entitled “We’re All Better Off as a Result of the Stock Crash.” I asked J.D. to “Please let me know what you think when you get a chance.”

I also sent an e-mail to Lazy Man saying: “J.D. wrote me a response suggesting (among other things) that I write a possible Guest Blog Entry for his site. I have submitted a possible Guest Blog Entry entitled “We’re All Better Off As A Result of the Stock Crash.” Perhaps that will end up helping spread the word a bit.”

Lazy Man responded with these words:

“Yeah, I was cc’d on the response.  I think he’s got some valid points. I hope you take away much more than the “I should submit a guest blog entry to him.”  To me that was the least important of the 5 or 6 things that he mentioned.”

I responded to Lazy Man with these words:

“I think I probably stated my views on most of the other points he raised in comments put forward at the Money Blog Network forum. My strong hunch is that it won’t help for me to go through any of that again.

“Please do let me know if you ever have questions or thoughts about ways that I could help out. My rule is to respond to all in a spirit of charity to the greatest extent possible given the circumstances that apply. I cannot post dishonestly on safe withdrawal rates. That’s out, for obvious reasons. Anything short of that works, so far as I’m concerned. That’s always been the rub and on that one I don’t have any wiggle room. It’s a numerical calculation.”

I did not receive a response from J.D. about the Guest Blog Entry.

Filed Under: J.D. Roth & VII Tagged With: Get Rich Slowly, J.D. Roth, Lazy Man and Money

“Right Now, Rob, You Are Your Own Worst Enemy in This Matter”

June 28, 2010 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of an e-mail sent to me on April 20, 2009, by J.D. Roth, owner of the Get Rich Slowly blog, in response to my e-mail to him described in an earlier blog entry and the subsequent e-mail by the owner of the Lazy Man and Money blog and my response to it.

Hi, Rob.

Thanks for writing.

I’ve actually been following your discussion over at the MBN forums, but I haven’t participated because I have nothing meaningful to add. I understand that this is something about which you feel strongly, and I admire your devotion and persistence. I wish you well in your crusade. HOWEVER, there are many many things wrong with conventional financial advice, and the debate over the safe withdrawal rate is but one small example. I’m not willing to focus on this at the exclusion of other topics.

From my experience, most reasonable financial advisers arleady understand that the 4% withdrawal rate is not set in stone. They use it as a guideline. Why? Because, in general, it WORKS in order to provide guidance for clients. But every reputable source I’ve read makes it clear that the safe withdrawal rate does indeed vary depending on economic conditions. Some authors may use 4% when speaking broadly, but if they do a detailed examination, they always include caveats. I do this myself.

That said, I have some other thoughts and comments:

1. You wrote: “The owners of personal finance blogs should organize to prevent Goon posters from destroying our property and from intimidating our readership.” To be honest, this seems unnecessary to me. I’ve been writing about personal finance for three years, and though I have to deal with an occasional nut and occasional hostility, I’ve seen no evidence on GRS (or anywhere else, for that matter) of “Goon posters” intimidating readership. If you’re feeling threatened by Goon posters and nobody else is, ask yourself why this might be the case.

2. You wrote: “This shows that the core premise of the Passive Investing model — that allocation changes are not needed in response to big price changes — does not hold water.” I don’t agree with you. For one thing, passive investing requires periodic rebalancing, so there *is* a response to big price changes. For another, I don’t think that the safe-withdrawal rate question has anything to do with passive investing. You may as well argue that it shows that the core premise of active investing doesn’t hold water. Both arguments are equally incorrect.

3. Your approach to this is damaging your objective. You mean well, I know, but as others have pointed out, you come across as crazy. I’m not joking. If you want to be taken seriously, then write SHORT persuasive articles that address this subject. In the thread that Lazy Man locked, you are writing enormous epistles belaboring even minor points. You’re flooding people with words. Even if some, like me, might be inclined to agree with you, we have difficulty taking you seriously because you take offense at the slightest provocation, and you seem hell-bent on this crusade. You are tilting at windmills.

My number one recommendation for you is this: Write less. Write fewer posts/articles, and when you do write, make them shorter. This will increase your credibility immeasurably. If you want to get the word out on this subject, write a SHORT article that makes your point WITHOUT loaded terms like “goon squad” and “old school”, etc. Submit it to a pfblogger. (Hell, you could even submit it to me.) If the blogger rejects it, don’t take offense. Listen to why they rejected it.

Right now, Rob, you are your own worst enemy in this matter. *YOU* are what is causing people not to listen. People in the MBN thread tried to tell you this, but you ignored them. Until you are able to come to terms with this, you’re going to continue to struggle to be heard. And that’s a shame. I think you have something worth hearing.

Now here’s an unfortunate truth: I do not have time to devote to a long, rambling discussion on this subject with you by e-mail (or any other source). I have work to do. I’m perfectly willing to exchange short e-mails on this subject, but if you respond with long epistles, they will likely be ignored — not out of any malicious intent on my part, but because I simply don’t have time to deal with it. I barely have time to get the things done that need doing without adding this to my plate. Hell, I just spent 30 minutes writing this reply when I should have been researching bonds for my afternoon post.

Thanks!

–j.d.

Filed Under: J.D. Roth & VII Tagged With: Get Rich Slowly, J.D. Roth, SWRs

“We Don’t Want to Know What Works, We Want to Hear What Makes Us Feel Good, Accurate Or Not”

June 25, 2010 by Rob

Yesterday’s blog entry set forth the text of an e-mail sent to J.D. Roth, owner of the Get Rich Slowly blog (with a copy to me) by the owner of the Lazy Man and Money blog. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to both J.D. and Lazy Man in response to Lazy Man’s e-mail.

J.D. and Lazy Man:

I certainly understand that you do not endorse all my investing ideas, Lazy Man. I presume that J.D. does not either. That is of course fine and what we all should expect to be the case.

I don’t understand why you didn’t expect me to follow through on the suggestion. I thought it was a great practical and constructive idea for how to address the problem.

I of course understand that J.D. would need to check things out carefully before stating anything publicly and that that might take some time. I do believe that there is a lot of good that could come of it both for him and for many others. But of course only he can say whether he can open up some time for this. I will of course help out in any way that I am able to.

It’s fair to say that I believe that I have uncovered an “injustice in the investing community.” But it really goes well beyond that.

The reality is that a large number of us seven years ago discovered errors in the calculation of the numbers that millions of people use to plan their retirements and that these errors have not been corrected to this day. And a popular personal finance columnist (Scott Burns) says that the reason is that we really don’t want to know what works, we only want to hear what makes us feel good whether it is accurate or not. If that is so, that turns the conventional ideas on investing on their heads. The primary conventional idea is that the market is efficient because most of us are engaging in the rational pursuit of our own self interests. If the reality is that we do not even want to know what works, investing is a largely emotional rather than an entirely rational pursuit. If most investors were not even trying to get things right during the Passive Investing Era, that would explain the huge price crash (something that took many Passives by surprise).

My view is that both the Get Rich Slowly blog AND the Money Blog Network are great places to spread the word both about the accurate retirement planning numbers AND about the tactics that have been used to block discussion of them for seven years now. We have all been affected by the economic crisis. I think we all should be doing what we can to come to an understanding of what caused it and what we need to do to avoid additional crashes in the days ahead. There is certainly huge interest in these questions among our readers.

Again, thanks for any help that either of you can provide in helping people to become better informed about the realities. Please let me know of anything that I can do to help out.

Rob

Filed Under: J.D. Roth & VII Tagged With: Get Rich Slowly, J.D. Roth, Lazy Man and Money, safe withdrawal rate

“A Site With the Popularity of Yours Could Put This Injustice Out There & Maybe Help You Both Out”

June 24, 2010 by Rob

Monday’s blog entry set forth the text of an e-mail that I sent to J.D. Roth, owner of the Get Rich Slowly blog, on April 20, 2009. I copied the owner of the Lazy Man and Money blog as he was involved in the discussions at the Money Blog Network forums described in the e-mail and he had been the person who suggested that I contact J.D. Set forth below is the text of the e-mail that Lazy Man sent to J.D. (copying me) after receiving his copy of my e-mail to J.D.

Sorry to involve you in this J.D.  I didn’t expect Rob to take me literally.  I do not necessarily endorse his ideas.  I haven’t had the time to pour over the math to see if what he’s saying holds water or not.

I do know he’s very convinced he has uncovered a huge injustice in the investing community.  He says that some goons have been trying to stop him wherever he posts. If there’s truth to what he’s saying, a site with the popularity of yours could put this injustice out there and maybe help you both out.

As you can tell from the thread in the MBN Forums, it got way out of hand (you’ve probably even tried to read some of it).  It’s not that I’m against Rob’s ideas… as I’ve said before I don’t know if they hold water or not… it’s just that the MBN Forums is not the place to discuss such matters.  The Get Rich Slowly forums (http://www.getrichslowly.org/forum/) is probably the more appropriate place.

Filed Under: J.D. Roth & VII Tagged With: Get Rich Slowly, J.D. Roth, Lazy Man and Money, SWRs

“Personal Finance Bloggers Should Organize to Prevent Goons From Intimidating Our Readership”

June 21, 2010 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to J.D. Roth, owner of the Get Rich Slowly blog, on April 20, 2009:

J.D.:

This is Rob Bennett. You may recall that not too long ago you wrote a blog entry about an article at my site on Unconventional Saving Strategies. Some ways back you wrote about a profile of my Retire Early plan written up by Liz Weston.

The author of the Lazy Man and Money blog suggested in a thread at the Money Bloggers Network that I ask your help in a matter being discussed there that has become a bit contentious. Here is the thread:

[this thread has been deleted from the forum]

The background is that I was an extremely popular poster at the Motley Fool site for a number of years. I was the lead person in building up a Retire Early discussion board that had become the most popular board at the site. I discovered through personal research analytical errors in the Old School Safe-Withdrawal-Rate (SWR) studies (these are the studies that most financial planners use to help us plan our retirements). My posts on this topic prompted a huge positive response among my fellow community members.

But John Greaney was also a popular poster at this forum (he founded it and he had a web site on the topic of early retirement for many years before mine went up). John had published one of the Old School studies at his web site (www.RetireEarlyHomePage.com) and he did not want people discussing the errors made in the study. John and his Goon Squad have for the past seven years devoted huge amounts of time and effort to destroying discussion boards and blogs discussing these matters or related matters, using a host of extremely abusive posting practices to do so. I argue in the thread that the owners of personal finance blogs should organize to prevent Goon posters from destroying our property and from intimidating our readership.

Lazy Man said that he does not personally understand the SWR topic (many do not, of course) and suggested that I contact you to see if you would be willing to look into the matter and to help others come to a better-informed understanding of it. I of course think this is a great idea in the event that you are willing to take some time to help us all out.

The problem with the Old School studies is that they do not contain an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. They say that the SWR is always 4 percent. Studies using an analytically valid methodology (one that adjusts for the effect of the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins) report that the SWR can drop to 2 percent at times of high valuations and can rise to 9 percent at times of low valuations. It is not a stable number, but one that varies (this shows that the core premise of the Passive Investing model — that allocation changes are not needed in response to big price changes — does not hold water).

Several big-name experts have announced agreement with my findings. William Bernstein has said that anyone giving thought to using one of the Old School studies would be well-advised to “FuhGedDaBouDit!” Larry Swedroe has described the Old School studies as “Garbage-In, Garbage-Out research. Michael Kitces has linked to my New School calculator at his web site, saying that he views it as a great tool. Ed Easterling has pointed out that millions of retirees will need to take jobs as greeters at WalMart in the days ahead because of the demonstrably false claims made in the Old School studies and the failure of so many to publicize them once we learned of them. Scott Burns has said that I have added a new level to our understanding of safe withdrawal rates but explained that the conventional media does not want to report on our findings because “it is information that most people do not want to hear” (Scott said this before the huge stock crash).

Here is a link to the New School SWR calculator that I make available at my web site:

http://www.passionsaving.com/retirement-calculator.html

If you scroll down that page, you will find links to a number of articles providing further background on the New School research and on the need to warn people about the analytical errors in the Old School studies. If you want to check the research backing up the New School findings, please check out the web site of my partner in development of the calculator, John Walter Russell:

http://www.early-retirement-planning-insights.com/index.html

I would be grateful if you would be willing to take on this task. I think that you could help a lot of blog owners understand some important things about how stock investing really works by doing so. All of the investing materials at my site (there are now four unique calculators, over 100 articles, and close to 100 podcasts) are the work product of investigations into the realities that began after I learned about the errors in the Old School studies and the reluctance that many feel to acknowledging those errors.

Lazy Man has locked the thread linked to above. He has said that he will be discussing the idea of having it taken down altogether with the other owners of the site. An earlier thread called “Problems With the Conventional Investing Advice” was taken down at an earlier time after attracting lots of good comments from a good number of community members (as well as two abusive posts by the Greaney Goons). I have copied Lazy Man on this e-mail as your decision might influence the decision of the owners of the Money Blog Network site on whether or not to permit people there to discuss the matter.

If I can help with any questions, please just let me know. Thanks for the great work you do with your blog and thanks for giving some consideration to the idea of looking into the SWR matter.

Rob

Filed Under: J.D. Roth & VII Tagged With: Get Rich Slowly, J.D. Roth, SWRs

“It Makes Me Feel Better to Hear You Say That”

June 15, 2010 by Rob

Friday’s blog entry set forth the text of an e-mail that I sent to J.D. Roth, the owner of the Get Rich Slowly blog, on May 21, 2009.

While we were exchanging e-mails re my mental illness or lack thereof, we were also exchanging e-mails aimed at solving the problem that gave rise to the discussion — the fact that my comments were not appearing at J.D.’s blog. After the e-mail set forth in Friday’s blog entry, J.D. was able to get a comment of mine to appear properly. In response to his e-mail letting me know this, I sent him the following words:

J.D.:

Thanks.

I’ll try to find a blog entry to comment on in real time tomorrow and see if I can get that to work.

I posted several responses to your comment at my blog. They contain some strong (but I think fair and hopefully helpful) words. Please let me know if they inspire thoughts in you that might help us bring this matter to a positive and constructive resolution.

I am having a very hard time figuring out where you are coming from re all this. I am trying hard.

Rob

I followed that up the following morning with this one:

J.D.:

I reread the e-mails and comments from last night in an attempt to develop a solution that is more satisfying to you while not causing me to feel that I have “doctored” an old post (my view is that words that have been said should remain said and that statements giving false impressions should be corrected through the addition of new words rather than through the subtraction of old ones).

I have added the following language (all in bold) to the end of the paragraph in question:

“[Note (added May 22): Subsequent events have shown that J.D. did NOT block my comments — the posting problem turned out to have been caused by a technical problem afterall]

I hope that helps a tiny bit.

Rob

J.D. responded by saying: “I think this should work fine. And I think this is a reasonable compromise: to add words in the appropriate spots… Thanks!”

I wrote back saying: “It makes me feel better to hear you say that. I also want to express my gratitude to you for your handling of the comments on Bill’s thread. Given the way that it’s been handled, I believe that people holding all points of view feel safe offering their sincere thoughts.”

And everybody lived happily ever after.

Kinda, sorta.

Filed Under: J.D. Roth & VII Tagged With: Get Rich Slowly, J.D. Roth

“Reasonable People Are Not Going to Believe That You Are Concerned About My Mental Health, J.D.”

June 11, 2010 by Rob

Yesterday’s blog entry contained the text of an e-mail that I sent to J.D. Roth, owner of the Get Rich Slowly blog, on May 21, 2009. Set forth below are the texts of J.D.’s response to that e-mail and then my reply.

Rob,

You continue to ignore my requests to take down the defamatory remarks. Why is this? I’m asking politely, and it’s a reasonable request. You’ve obviously read the e-mail that I sent you about the problem, yet you choose to not even address it. This is a very real concern for me. It is not a trivial matter.

I don’t want updates or link to future posts. I want the words removed. They are false. They damage my character and my reputation without merit. Please remove them immediately.

–j.d.

J.D.:

I have not ignored you. I have done everything in my power to help you out.

My sense is that you don’t want to “be involved” in the Campaign of Terror matter. I don’t want to “be involved” in it either. All I have ever wanted to do was to post my honest views on investing on the internet. The Goons “involved” me against my will. They involved thousands of others too.

Now they have done the same with you.

You obviously fear what they will do to you if you do your job as a blog owner and alert people to the problem. I am of course sympathetic. But the fact remains that for so long as a ban on honest posting remains in place anyone who writes about investing is affected by it. A ban on honest posting on matters of such importance affect the environment in which you write, J.D. That’s just the reality here. I don’t like it either.

It’s the reality all the same.

You are not writing what you would be writing if you did not fear the Goons. So your work has been affected, whether you like it or not.

You are part of the story because the Goons made you part of the story (they have made everyone who writes about investing part of the story), not because I made you part of the story.

I have an obligation to my readers to tell the story that is taking place (and that is causing them great financial devastation) as clearly and honestly and fully and fairly as possible. That’s my job.

I can assure you that I am happy to do anything in my power (short of posting dishonestly) to help you out. That’s all fine. You are asking me to cross a line that I cannot cross.

Reasonable people are not going to believe that you are concerned about my mental health, J.D. You know that. I know that.  That’s the sort of tactic that I have seen a lot of the Goons employ. Look where it has gotten them. In every case, I reached out and tried to help. I extended the hand of kindness and tried to persuade them that this was not the path to walk. Money questions are serious questions. People who take these questions seriously simply do not behave in this way.

Reasonable people are not going to believe that you see no problem in people failing to correct retirement studies for seven years after they learn of the errors in them. Reasonable people are not going to believe that you see genuine merit in the decision at the Money Bloggers Network to take down the two threads that dealt with this issue after numerous community members there showed great interest in the learning experience they were enjoying (this was especially so with the thread dealing with substantive matters rather than abusive posting problems). Reasonable people are not going to believe that you did not see merit in the Guest Blog Entry that I sent you showing people that the stock crash was a good thing for many of us (the negative emotion that was caused by the stock crash is obviously a big contributing factor to the economic crisis and a blog entry that helps to dispel those negative emotions is obviously one of the most important blog entries you could publish this year).

I am always going to give you the same answers. I am always going to remain enthused to work with you in any way possible to help you (and your readers and any experts with whom you have connections) out. However, I am not going to myself post dishonestly to achieve this result. It is obviously not reasonable for you to expect that.

I have agreed to post your words explaining what happened. I will do that. If you have concerns about how people are going to interpret your words and your actions, I of course understand. if you give me anything to work with, I will bend over backwards to help you out. There are obviously limits to what I can do.

The games help no one. Absolutely no one.

Rob

Filed Under: J.D. Roth & VII Tagged With: Get Rich Slowly, J.D. Roth

“I Would Want to Disassociate Myself from that Behavior in Every Way Possible”

June 10, 2010 by Rob

I posted in yesterday’s blog entry an e-mail sent to me on May 21, 2009, by J.D. Roth, owner of the Get Rich Slowly blog. Set forth below is the text of my response e-mail, sent that same evening.

J.D.:

I will post the words from your earlier e-mail (the entire thing) as next Thursday’s blog entry (I have items already in line for the days until then, but, if it is a big deal to you to have the words of your e-mail appear sooner, please let me know and I can move things around.

I will also provide a link at the old blog entry to the one that contains the words of your e-mail.

I think it makes sense to post your second e-mail (the one below) as well. The mental health claim is certainly part of the story. If you give me permission, I will run the full text of this one as well. If you do not, I will summarize this one in the blog entry in which I run the full text of the earlier one.

I am of course sorry to hear about your mother.

I certainly agree that the story of the Campaign of Terror that has been waged against the Retire Early and Indexing discussion board communities for seven years now (and against a number of blogs in recent months) is an amazing one. You’ll get no argument from me re that one. I’ve made a living as a reporter for over 25 years now and I have never seen anything else like it. Holy moly!

I am grateful to you for at least being able to say that my message is “interesting.” I of course understand that it is not your particular message. I don’t believe that that at all justifies you in not writing about the FACTS of the matter. If there were other Rational Investors who were engaging in the behavior that some  Passive Investing dogmatists have been engaging in, I would want to disassociate myself from that behavior in every way possible. Such behavior would not necessarily cause me to change my investing beliefs (I think it might give me pause to reconsider some of them). But I certainly hope that I would recognize the need to report about the behavior and about the damage it has done to numerous discussion-board communities and blogs. The behavior is a story of its own and it is one that reflects poorly on the Passive Investing approach. As you note, the behavior is extraordinary. All Passive Investing advocates should be asking themselves what it is about this investing philosophy that gives rise to such behavior and why it is that so many Passive Investing advocates have failed to speak up against it for so long.

I’ll give you a concrete example of why you should be writing about the Campaign of Terror against the Retire Early and Indexing discussion-board communities even though you do not personally endorse the Rational Investing model. The Bogleheads.org forum has banned posting on The Retirement RIsk Evaluator, the only New School SWR calculator available on the internet. Questions about SWRs and retirement planning are common at that board. There are obviously many in that community who would have great interest in being able to see analytically valid retirement-planning numbers. You should be writing about the ban and about the damage it has done to aspiring retirees and urging a lifting of the ban.

Now say that you prefer the Old School studies. Does that mean that you should NOT post about the ban? I sure don’t see it that way. If you prefer the Old School studies, you should still favor discussion of the alternative to the Old School studies. There are two things that can happen as a result of the airing of a discussion of the problems with the Old School studies and of the merits or lack thereof of the New School calculator. It is of course theoretically possible that the discussions could end up affirming the merit of the Old School studies. That would obviously be a good development from the standpoint of an advocate of the Old School studies. The other possibility is that the discussions could show the benefit of the New School calculator. That could cause you to rethink your position, which is ALSO a good development in circumstances in which the advocates of the Old School studies are not able to make an effective case.

This is not a case in which you need to agree with the investing ideas being put forward to help your readers by drawing their attention to the abusive posting problem. The ban on honest posting on valuations-related topics is a PROCESS question. Bloggers on all sides of the substantive investing topics should be united in urging that discussion of all points of view be permitted in discussions of retirement planning. Blogs owners covering all sorts of non-money topics favor free speech as a general principle. Why should the owners of personal finance blogs be so different? I believe that, if anything, the need for free speech is greater in this area. When people are not permitted to hear both sides of the retirement planning story, they suffer concrete negative effects. This isn’t a case where not hearing both sides might cause someone to think that the Yankees rather than the Red Sox are going to win the World Series. This is a case where a ban on honest posting is likely going to cause people to suffer busted retirements. Not good.

Rob

Filed Under: J.D. Roth & VII Tagged With: Get Rich Slowly, J.D. Roth

“You Might Want to See Somebody — This is Paranoia”

June 9, 2010 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that J.D. Roth, the owner of the Get Rich Slowly blog, sent me on May 21, 2009. The background is that I was in the middle of an exciting discussion at J.D.’s blog with Bill Schultheis, the author of The New Coffeehouse Portfolio, when my comments stopped appearing. I made numerous tries to get the comments to appear and contacted J.D. by e-mail to ask for his help; those e-mails were ignored. I wrote at my blog that J.D. had banned me from commenting at his site. J.D. wrote to tell me that this was not so and I posted a correction. J.D. wrote to argue strongly that the correction was not sufficient and that I should remove the earlier comments altogether. I said that I did not feel comfortable removing words that had already been posted but that I would be happy to run a Guest Blog Entry in which J.D. could make the case for why he felt that I had handled the matter poorly.

Hi, Rob.

Thanks for the response.

I do not have time or interest in writing a guest post at your site. What I want is for you to remove the defamatory statements about me and Get Rich Slowly from your site. I’m not trying to be unreasonable, I’m not trying to pick a fight, I’m not trying to persecute you. I’m asking you, as a reasonable adult, to remove the false statements you have made about my actions. They have the potential to damage my reputation. And I’m asking you to do this now, in a nice way, instead of taking other steps. What you wrote crosses a line that ought not be crossed.

You are free to post my previous e-mail PROVIDED YOU POST THE ENTIRE THING AND NOT JUST EXCERPTS. I’m not sure that I have a “take” on anything other than the fact that you claim to have posted comments that have not appeared in my WordPress account to approve, and that you then took this as license for defamation.

Rob, I mentioned in a previous discussion that it seems to me that you might want to see somebody regarding mental health. I was not joking, and I was not trying to be mean. When I read what you write — “A gang of thugs now works virtually full-time posting abusively at discussion boards and blogs to insure that the millions of middle-class workers who need to learn about these issues before they lose more of their retirement money do not find out about them”, etc. — I hear the same sort of things my mother tells me. She struggles with mental health issues. Let me assure you that it is *HIGHLY* unlikely that there is a concerted full-time effort out there to thwart your attempts to share your ideas. This is paranoia, and it needs to be addressed.

Again, I’m not trying to make fun of you and I’m not trying to belittle your concerns. I’m merely suggesting that you might want to seek some help.

So, to summarize my past few messages:

1. I posted a test comment on the thread with problems. Please do the same.

2. Please remove the defamatory comments from this post: http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2009/05/19/holy-toledo-this-is-great-stuff-the-new-coffeehouse-investor-author-bill-schultheis/

3. Please consider consulting a mental health professional.

4. I have neither time nor interest in contributing a guest post to A Rich Life.

Again, your message is interesting, and I’m glad you’re sharing it. However, it is not *my* message. You’re welcome to share it at Get Rich Slowly, but I’m not willing to pick it up as a crusade.

Please let me know when you’ve posted a test comment and when you’ve removed the defamatory info from your site.

–j.d.

Filed Under: J.D. Roth & VII Tagged With: Get Rich Slowly, J.D. Roth

What’s Here

  • Bennett/Pfau Research (62)
  • Beyond Buy-and-Hold (117)
  • Bill Bengen & VII (8)
  • Bill Bernstein & VII (4)
  • Bill Schultheis & VII (2)
  • Brett Arends and VII (1)
  • Carl Richards & VII (8)
  • Daily Caller Articles (10)
  • Economics — New and Improved! (103)
  • Financial Highway Column (11)
  • From Buy/Hold to VII (394)
  • Guest Blog Entries (96)
  • Index Universe & VII (11)
  • Intimidation of VII Advocates (66)
  • Investing Basics (535)
  • Investing Experts (97)
  • Investing Strategy (56)
  • investing theory (23)
  • Investing: The New Rules (120)
  • Investor Psychology (95)
  • J.D. Roth & VII (17)
  • Joe Taxpayer & VII (14)
  • John Bogle & VII (97)
  • Larry Evans and VII (12)
  • Lindauer/Greaney Goons (475)
  • Michael Kitces & VII (43)
  • Mike Piper & VII (31)
  • Podcasts (200)
  • Reactions to Pfau Silencing (71)
  • Reality Checker (4)
  • Return Predictor (12)
  • Risk Evaluator (11)
  • Rob Arnott & VII (4)
  • Rob Bennett (306)
  • Rob E-Mails Seeking Help (67)
  • Rob's E-Mails to Researchers (1)
  • Robert Shiller & VII (105)
  • Roger Wohlner and VII (5)
  • Saving Strategies (23)
  • Scenario Surfer (3)
  • Scott Burns & VII (8)
  • Silencing of Wade Pfau (97)
  • Strategy Tester (5)
  • SWRs (89)
  • Todd Tresidder & VII (3)
  • Uncategorized (24)
  • Various Experts & VII (33)
  • VII Column (720)
  • Wall Street Corruption (363)
  • Warren Buffett & VII (5)

Rob on the Internet

  • Rob's Weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing Column at the Value Walk Site.

  • Rob's Weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold Column at the Out of Your Rut Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Financial Highway Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Balance Junkie Site

  • Rob's Daily Caller Articles: (1) Can We Handle the Truth About Stock Investing?; (2) How We Invest Is a Political Question; (3) The Economic Crisis Is Trying to Tell Us Something (and We're Not Listening); (4) Facts Don't Matter; (5) Going Google Stupid; (6) How Much Transparency Can We Handle?; (7) Confessions of an Internet Troll; (8) Conservatives Fall Into a Trap by Blaming Obama for the Bad Economy; (9) Meet the New Media, Same as the Old Media; and (10) How Restoring Honor Will End the Economic Crisis

  • Humble Money Experts Are the Best Money Experts, (Rob's Article in the Integrative Advisor, the Journal of the Association for Integrative Financial and Life Planning)

  • Articles on the Return Predictor, the RIsk Evaluator, the Scenario Surfer and the Strategy Tester

  • The Myth of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • A Better and Safer Way to Invest in Stocks and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Economic Crisis Is the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Us and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Stock Volatility Kills! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Risks of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Future of Investing and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What the Stock Investing Experts Don't Want You to Know and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What's the Best Age at Which to Experience a Stock Crash? and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Guest Blog Entry Compares Our Effort to Open the Internet to Honest Posting on Stock Investing with the Civil Rights Struggle of the Early 1960s

  • Our Monster Thread (153 Comments!) on Whether Bill Bengen Should Correct His Retirement Study Now That He Acknowledges the Errors He Made In It

  • Google Search Results for the Term "Valuation-Informed Indexing"
  • Favorite RobCasts

    • Bogle and Valuations

    • When Stock Losses Are True Losses and When They Are Not

    • There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?

    • Risk Tolerance in the Real World

    • Cash Is a Strategic Asset Class

    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies

    • Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)

    • Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In

    • Low Stock Prices Are Better Than High Stock Prices

    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

    • Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator

    • Investing Through Time

    • Mapping S&P 500 Performance

    • S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

    • S&P 500 Return Calculator

    • Russell's Research

    • Shiller's Data

    • Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group

    EZ Fat Footer #3

    This is Dynamik Widget Area. You can add content to this area by going to Appearance > Widgets in your WordPress Dashboard and adding new widgets to this area.

    Copyright © 2026 · Dynamik Website Builder on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in