A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

“We Are the First Generation of Investors Who Has Available to Them the Research Needed to Turn Stock Investing Into a High-Return, Virtually Risk-Free Endeavor”

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Set forth below is the text of a comment that I put to the blog in response to a comment by one of the Greaney Goons that “there is no ‘we,” just ‘you.'”

Everyone in this field faces an important question today, Trebor.

We are the first generation of investors who had available to them the research needed to turn stock investing into a high-return, virtually risk-free endeavor. No group of investors who came before us was so blessed. We can all live far richer lives than we ever dreamed possible if we elect to acknowledge mistakes we made in the past and move forward into an exciting future for all of us and all our friends, neighbors and co-workers.

The alternative available to us is that we can continue the Campaign of Terror, thereby bring on the Second Great Depression, and spend the remainder of our days regretting our foolish and powerfully sad choice.

Wade can contact me if he elects to take the better path. Bogle can do the same. Bernstein can do the same. Swedroe can do the same. The hand of kindness remains extended.

There will be no dishonest posts about safe withdrawal rates going up with my name on them. The odds of that one coming through were precisely zero on the morning of May 13, 2002, and remain precisely zero today.

I of course wish you well in all your future endeavors, my long-time abusive posting friend.

Rob

“Academic Researcher Wade Pfau Demonstrated His Feelings of Close Friendship With Me on Many, Many Occasions During the Time He Was Doing Honest Work”

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Set forth below is a comment that I posted to the blog in response to a claim put forward by one of the Greaney Goons that Academic Researcher Wade Pfau no longer views me as his biggest booster alive on Planet Earth:

Do you think Wade would agree with your statement that you are “the biggest Wade Pfau booster alive on Planet Earth”?

In the days before the Goons threatened to destroy his career if he continued publishing honest research, I am 100 percent certain he would have agreed. He demonstrated his feelings of close friendship with me on many, many occasions during the time he was doing honest work.

Obviously his goal today is to cover up his unethical behavior. This is one of the reasons why I think we need to bring the Campaign of Terror to an end. Wade should feel that he can do honest research and that the Buy-and-Hold Goons will not destroy him. ALL academic researchers should feel that they can post honest research. We all NEED all the researchers publishing honest research.

But we obviously cannot get there so long as people like John Bogle are pretending that Buy-and-Hold can work. We learned about the errors in the Old School SWR studies in May 2002. The Buy-and-Holders have taken on hundreds of billions in legal liabilities by covering up the mistake for 10 years. So they see it as a major threat if even one academic researcher does honest work.

The answer is for everyone to start doing honest work on the same day. We need Bogle to give a speech acknowledging the 30 years of research showing that there is zero chance that Buy-and-Hold can ever work in the long term. We need to get that speech written up in the New York Times.

Once the cover-up comes to an end, the benefits we will all enjoy as we make the transition from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing will be so great that we will all be feeling 500 times better about ourselves. We will be focusing on the huge economic boom we will see when we share with other people all the wonderful things we have learned about stock investing over the past 10 years and we will in time be able to put all the ugliness we have seen during the Campaign of Terror to an end.

Make that speech, Saint Jack!

We need you to step up the plate, man!

Wade Pfau (and lots and lots of others, including Rob Bennett) are counting on you!

Rob

“Why the Heck Would I Want to Destroy the Credibility of the Academic Researcher Who Has Done More Than Any Other to Advance the Investing Strategy That I Believe Is Going to Pull Us Out of This Economic Crisis?”

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Set forth below is my response to a comment that was put to the blog last week charging me with having advanced a “screed” re Academic Researcher Wade Pfau:

You Goons say this sort of thing all the time, Trebor.

I am the biggest Wade Pfau booster alive on Planet Earth. Wade did the research showing that Valuation-Informed Indexing dramatically increases returns while also dramatically reducing risk. I am the person who developed the VII strategy. Why the heck would I want to destroy the credibility of the academic researcher who has done more than any other to advance the investing strategy that I believe is going to pull us out of the economic crisis? That’s insane.

What you are getting at, of course, is that I have argued that Wade made a terrible mistake to sacrifice his personal integrity and flip to the Goon side. He did. That’s going to follow him around for the rest of his lifetime. He will likely have lawsuits filed against him in days to come. He could land in prison. Is the popularity he has achieved by agreeing to side with the Goons and keep the Buy-and-Hold Tragedy going a few more months or a few more years worth it? I certainly do not think so.

Wade has two small children to worry about. I think in fairness that that should be mentioned. That’s a bit of an explanation. But it is not an excuse. If Wade does not possess the courage to stand up to the Goons, he needs to find another line of work. An academic researcher needs to report his findings honestly and accurately. People look to the academic research to learn the realities. You cannot let internet Goons intimidate you into saying things you do not believe.

Here is my grand summing-up article reporting on the many blog posts I wrote on my 16 months of e-mail correspondence with Wade:

http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/the-buy-and-hold-crisis/academic-researcher-silenced-by-threats-to-get-him-fired-from-his-job-after-showing-dangers-of-buy-and-hold-investing-strategies/

I love Wade, Trebor. I loved the work we did together. I miss working with him. I respect him and admire him. It breaks my heart to think about what he has done both to himself and to the many people who look to him to give helpful guidance on stock investing. I implored him not to go down the path he has gone down. Is there anything you can think of that I could have said that I did not say? If you suggest anything that makes sense, I will say it.

I will always be Wade’s friend. Any time he wants to contact me, he will get a warm welcome. You call that a “screed”.” I call it friendship. As far as I am concerned, Wade and I remain friends to this day. Wade doesn’t see it that way because he is ashamed of his betrayal. That’s something he needs to work out on his own. If he reaches a point where he wants to reestablish contact, I can promise you with 100 percent certainty that I will be there for him. Nothing would make me happier.

Please take good care. If you happen to be in contact with our friend Wade, I hope you will send him my warm regards.

Rob

ITNR #115 — Researcher Wade Pfau Was Amazed to Learn That Market Timing Always Works

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I’ve posted Entry #115 to my weekly Investing: The New Rules column at the Death by 1,000 Papercuts site. It’s titled Researcher Wade Pfau Was Amazed to Learn That Market Timing Always Works.

Juicy Excerpt: If Wade Pfau did not know about this stuff, it is fair to conclude that most of the “experts” in this field do not know about this stuff. THEY DON”T KNOW. They fight like the dickens to keep this stuff covered up because they kinda, sorta suspect that they might have messed up somewhere along the line. But they don’t really know how things work.

ITNR #113 — Academic Researcher Wade Pfau Endorses My Work

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I’ve posted Entry #113 to my weekly Investing: The New Rules column at the Death by 1,000 Papercuts site. It’s titled Academic Researcher Wade Pfau Endorses My Work.

Juicy Excerpt: I see the Wade Pfau story as a turning point in the ten-year saga. It’s one thing to go after an internet blogger who gets a little too big for his britches. It’s something else to go after a guy with a Ph.D. from Princeton, an associate professor whose work has passed peer review and all that neat stuff. The Buy-and-Holders are getting desperate. Very, very, very desperate.

ITNR #112 — Professor Abandons Breakthrough Research Following Threats by Buy-and-Holders

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I’ve posted Entry #112 to my weekly Investing: The New Rules column at the Death by 1,000 Papercuts site. It’s titled Professor Abandons Breakthrough Research Following Threats by Buy-and-Holders.

Juicy Excerpt: Wade found that everything that John and I had discovered together checked out. Valuation-Informed Indexing is far superior to Buy-and-Hold, according to the 140 years of return data available to us today. Wade’s research (now published in peer-reviewed journals) showed that Valuation-Informed Indexing provided higher returns than Buy-and-Hold at reduced risk for 102 of the 110 rolling 30-year time periods now in the historical record.

Forget for a moment that you are a normal human being. Assume that you are a Buy-and-Hold Goon desperate to keep people from learning the realities of stock investing. What would you do at this point?

Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies

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I’ve posted an article to the “The Buy-and-Hold Crisis” section of the site titled Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies.

Juicy Excerpt: The question this article addresses itself to is — How do they pull it off?

It’s not hard to understand why financial planners would want to encourage their clients to invest heavily in stocks — most of the money made in this field is made through the selling of stocks and all industries want their customers to believe that the product they are selling is a good buy at any possible price. But how has Wall Street managed to convince millions of middle-class people to throw away large portions of their retirement money through a misguided belief in this obvious fiction?

Buy-and-Hold advocates argue that the academic research on stock investing supports their claims that market timing doesn’t work or isn’t required for long-term success. Academic researchers are independent actors. How have the researchers been persuaded to keep quiet about what the entire historical record so clearly shows to be the case, that long-term market timing (changing your stock allocation in response to big swings in valuations with the understanding that you may not see benefits for doing so for as long as 10 years) always provides investors with much higher long-term returns at greatly reduced risk?

It’s done through the application of brutal intimidation tactics aimed at those who stray from support for the company line. Other researchers with thoughts of telling the truth about stock investing see what has happened to their peers, learn the lesson that the industry needs them to learn for their Buy-and-Hold marketing slogans to remain effective, and self-censor their research.

Corruption in the Investing Field — The Wade Pfau Story

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I’ve posted an article to the “The Buy-and-Hold Crisis” section of the site titled Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story.

Juicy Excerpt: This article should be read in conjunction with the article titled Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies. Both articles explore the same material — the 137 blog entries at the A Rich Life blog reporting on the breakthrough findings of Academic Researcher Wade Pfau showing that for the entire 140 years of stock market history for which we have available to us stock-return data Valuation-Informed Indexing strategies have provided far higher returns than Buy-and-Hold strategies at greatly reduced risk. The earlier article told the story of Wade showing his excitement in discovering how stock investing really works, his disillusionment in learning how publishing accurate research would limit his career prospects for so long as Buy-and-Holders retain the power to block honest discussion of the realities and his decision to flip to the dark side after internet Goons threatened to send defamatory e-mails to his employer as his “punishment” for acknowledging the need for retirement studies that get the numbers millions of us have used to plan our retirements wildly wrong to be corrected. This article collects in one place links to all of my blog entries reporting on Wade’s research and on my e-mail correspondence with him, supplemented by my commentary on them.

Rob Bennett’s Responses to Academic Researcher Wade Pfau: #18 — The Problem Is That Not One Buy-and-Holder Today Has Confidence in Buy-and-Hold

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I would be embarrassed.

If someone on “my side” put forward a death threat, I would cringe. If someone on “my side” engaged in defamation, I would disassociate myself from the comments. If someone on “my side” sought unjustified board bannings, I would object if the site administrator went along. If someone on “my side” threatened to get an academic researcher fired from his job, I would rush to put up comments saying that I want to know what that academic researcher really believes, that silencing the researchers makes it impossible for any of us to trust what any of the researchers say from that point forward.

It’s a good idea to learn how to reduce your message to a few words, to figure out how you would make your pitch if you were trying to convince someone during the 30 seconds you would share in an elevator. So I am going to keep this one short.

Wade Pfau published research showing that Valuation-Informed Indexing has provided far greater returns than Buy-and-Hold at greatly reduced risk for the entire 140 years now in the historical record. The research of this Ph.D. from Princeton is the most important research ever published in this field. We all should be thanking him. We all should be exploring his ideas. We all should be making the shift to Valuation-Informed Indexing and encouraging our friends and neighbors and-co-workers to do the same.

John Bogle isn’t doing that. Bill Bernstein isn’t doing that. Scott Burns isn’t doing that. Jonathan Clements isn’t doing that. Larry Swedroe isn’t doing that.

They don’t believe.

It’s that simple.

If they believed, they would react differently to the news of the silencing of a great researcher. There are two legitimate responses here. One is to make the switch from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing. One is to make the case for why Buy-and-Hold remains a legitimate strategy despite the publication of the powerful new research findings.

Threatening to get the researcher fired from his job is not a legitimate response. Creating a “hostile atmosphere” (Wade’s term) for the researcher is not a legitimate response. Ignoring the research is not a legitimate response. Ignoring the story of the silencing of the researcher is not a legitimate response.

The Buy-and-Holders do not have confidence in their strategy. That’s 11 words. That’s the story here.

They follow it. There is a mountain of evidence showing that they follow it. They are not lying about that part.

But they don’t believe in it. Not deep in their hearts.

The only question that remains is when they will work up the courage to say that publicly and thereby let the effort to learn what does work to proceed.

I hope that happens soon. I have a funny hunch that deep in their hearts every last one of the Buy-and-Holders hopes the same thing. I promise to continue doing my part to bring them to a point where they feel able to say The Three Magic words and thereby to see their long-deferred dream of promoting a smart, simple, safe and truly research-backed strategy for millions of middle-class investors come true.

Hate is not a sound long-term investing strategy. Love is the answer. I know that much for sure.

Rob Bennett’s Responses to Academic Researcher Wade Pfau: #17 — How Valuation-Informed Indexing Will Reach Its Tipping Point

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Wade says that I “desperately” want to hear researchers and other experts in this field say that the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies need to be corrected. The suggestion is that I place too much importance on this matter. Others have said similar things. My ten-year effort to get the errors in the retirement studies corrected has been referred to as my “obsession.” I have been told that I am on a “crusade.” It has been said that my passion re this matter causes me to suffer “death by verbosity.”

I don’t buy it.

When I gain the right to post honestly on the internet re SWRs and many other critically important investment-related topics, it won’t be only Rob Bennett who gains that right. Robert Shiller (the author of Irrational Exuberance) will gain that right. Vanguard Founder John Bogle will gain that right. William Bernstein (author of The Four Pillars of Investing) will gain that right. And on and on and on.

When I gain the right to post honestly, we ALL gain the right to post honestly. There’s huge leverage in that. We have denied ourselves the right to speak openly and plainly and honestly and realistically about how stock investing works for 30 years now. Behind the scenes, we have achieved huge advances in our understanding of the realities during those three decades. When we give ourselves permission to talk about what we have learned (and thus for the first time to fully understand it — we humans take in knowledge by talking it over), we will shoot ahead at an amazing pace. Can you imagine where we would be today in the electronics field if a law had been passed in 1981 saying that advances in that field had to cease because it would hurt the feelings of the people who didn’t know everything there was to know about electronics in 1974 for us to continue to move ahead? There’s huge leverage to be had by permitting thousands of smart and good people to use their brains again and help us all learn how stock investing really works even when telling that story means pointing out that there was a time decades ago when we didn’t know it all perfectly.

The Buy-and-Holders did something potentially wonderful back in the early 1970s. They developed an investing strategy rooted not in vague and subjective impressions and opinions but in the hard stuff, academic research based on an examination of the historical return data. It’s that breakthrough that has permitted us to make so much progress. There would be no Valuation-Informed Indexing today had it not been for work the Buy-and-Holders did in earlier times arguing that we should research investing questions rather than just offer off-the-cuff subjective opinions about them. What we didn’t see in the early 1970s was how the power of research could be used to hold us back rather than to push us forward. It is the claim that Buy-and-Hold is rooted in research that has made it so influential a strategy. But, because the Buy-and-Holders got it wrong, all that influence has been used to steer investors in the wrong direction. The road out of this economic crisis is to permit the researchers to report honestly and accurately what they learn when they study the data. It’s not putting numbers into tables that is the purpose of investment research. It’s discovering truths about investing that is the purpose. To discover truths, we need to become able to acknowledge errors when we make them.

That’s why this is such a big deal. That’s why I am “desperate” to see the Old School SWR studies corrected. Causing millions of people to suffer failed retirements is a big deal. The Buy-and-Holders want to avoid acknowledging the errors they made in the studies in the worst way. The Old Boys Club has sent down the word — you spill the beans re this one and you’ll never be able to get work in this field again. But what happens if the economic crisis grows so terrible that even people in the investing field begin to feel the need to take action to bring it to an end? I believe that we will then see forward movement. And it won’t be a little bit of forward movement. Valuation-Informed Indexing is close to its Tipping Point as a breakthrough idea. Once we get a few of the big names in this field developing the courage to stand up to the Goons, we will see an avalanche of investing insights. We will as a society experience the benefits of 30 years of insights over the course of about six months of time. It will be something else!

We need to get to that Tipping Point. There’s nothing intellectually we need to do. We have the data that shows that Valuation-Informed Indexing is superior. We have the research that shows that Valuation-Informed Indexing is superior. We have the expert statements showing that Valuation-Informed Indexing is superior. What we need is a means to spread the word to the millions of middle-class investors crying out for a more sensible and effective way to invest. There’s a sense in which we even have that. The internet is a powerful communications medium. We could spread the word quickly if those who knew what works were not afraid of what will be done to their careers if they dare to speak up. And we even have rules in place at all our boards and blogs protecting those people from the brutal tactics of the Buy-and-Hold Goons. We are on the 99-yard line. All we really need today is effective enforcement of the rules that in theory already are in place at the web sites where we need to be spreading the word.

Set forth below are 10 examples of experts who would love to be able to tell the truth about stock investing, if only as a society we were willing to do what we need to do to make them feel safe doing so.

1) I learned about the errors in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies by reading John Bogle’s book. Bogle explained that Reversion to the Mean is an “Iron Law” of stock investing. If high prices always lead to low prices, the safe withdrawal rate obviously cannot be the same when prices are high as it is when prices are low. Bogle would love to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing, as revealed by the last 30 years of academic research. We should let him.

2) Years before all of the major publications in this field acknowledged the errors in the Old School studies, one of the Goons asked William Bernstein whether he agreed with my claim that the Old School studies employed an invalid methodology. Bernstein said that “of course” the methodology used was valid but that anyone who was giving thought to making use of one of the Old School studies to plan a retirement would be well-advised to “FuhGedDaBouDit!” The second part of his statement is obviously just a down-to-earth way of saying that the methodology used in the studies was analytically invalid (if a valid methodology had been used, the numbers generated by the studies would not have been so wildly off the mark). Bernstein would love to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing, as revealed by the last 30 years of academic research. We should let him.

3) Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller described the theory behind the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept in his bestselling book Irrational Exuberance. But Shiller held back from including even one paragraph in the book telling investors how they should invest now that we know that Buy-and-Hold strategies can never work in the long run. Shiller told us why in an interview in which he said that he has never dared to go public with all he knows about how stock investing works because he would be smeared as “unprofessional” if he did so (I have a funny hunch that I might know what investing strategy it would be that would inspire its followers to do something like that). I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn that Shiller has already written Irrational Exuberance II, the book that describes what it is that investors need to do now that they know how dangerous it is not to practice long-term timing. Shiller would love to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing, as revealed by the last 30 years of academic research. We should let him.

4) Philip Taylor is a blogger who organizes the annual Financial Blogger Conferences. I submitted an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing for inclusion in the conference magazine. Phil rejected the article not because he does not see merit in the investing strategy but solely because he knows that bloggers don’t today know enough about the dangers of Buy-and-Hold and the benefits of Valuation-Informed Indexing to appreciate how much they would be helping their readers to lead the transition to the new strategy. He told me: “I assure you, my rejection of your article has nothing to do with my opinion on your particular strategy. I don’t need convincing of anything. Your way is perfect as far as I am concerned. Go preach it to the nations. #FinCon12, though, is not the right pulpit for this topic. The bloggers just don’t care. They have shown time and time again in the surveys that these types of topics are not of interest. Please respect that I know my audience.” Phil is right in what he says about out fellow bloggers. I have experienced this indifference to the new strategy on hundreds of occasions. But what if Bogle and all the others came out with public statements saying that Buy-and-Hold is the past and Valuation-Informed Indexing is the future? Would financial bloggers not be thrilled to lead the effort to get accurate and honest and realistic information about how to invest in stocks out to their readers? The question answers itself. Taylor and all other financial bloggers would love to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing. We should let him.

5) Mike Piper is the author of the Oblivious Investor blog. I had a long talk with him at last year’s Financial Bloggers Conference about the ban on honest posting in place today at his site and in place today at a good number of other sites. Mike told me that “there is nothing I would like more” than to see a lifting of the ban. But Mike has a problem. He permitted honest posting at his site for a time and my daily comments pointing out the dangers of Buy-and-Hold enraged his readers, most of whom follow the Buy-and-Hold strategy. If Mike were to permit honest posting, would he be able to retain his readership? If Bogle and all the others spoke out, he sure could. If Mike were giving honest and accurate and research-supported investing advice, his readership would skyrocket and all those Buy-and-Hold readers who are upset today to read the truth about stock investing would be thrilled to do so. But Mike needs our help. He needs Bogle and lots of others to give him “cover.” Mike would love to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing. We should let him.

6) Financial Planner Michael Kitces wrote at his blog that: “There are time-periods where stocks are a terrible addition to that portfolio. Yet inexplicably, we as planners STILL tend to suggest that it is ‘risky’ to not own stocks when in reality the only material risk is to our business and ability to keep clients, NOT to the clients’ goal.” I think it would be fair to say that Michael very much looks forward to the day when he can tell his clients the truth about stock investing. He has told me in e-mail correspondence that he knows of numerous financial planners who were in the days following the 2008 crash discussing the possibility of starting to let their clients in on some of the stuff that all those who work in this field today know about but dare not give voice to in public comments. Michael would love to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing. We should let him.

7) New York Times Financial Blogger Carl Richards has said of my work: “I have read everything I can about Valuation-Informed Indexing. What you are doing has huge value.” But Carl too banned me from his site. Again the reason was the burning rage that my reports on what the academic research says about stock investing caused in many of his readers, people who were trying to maintain a belief in Buy-and-Hold principles three decades after the research showed that there is precisely zero chance that Buy-and-Hold can ever work in the long term. Carl would love to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing. We should let him.

8) In the wake of the onset of the economic crisis, a federal commission was formed to identify its cause. The effort bore no good fruit. Democrats on the commission blamed the policies of Republicans. Republicans on the commission blamed the policies of Democrats. No one paid any attention to what the commission said because we all hear Democrats yelling at Republicans and Republicans yelling at Democrats on a daily basis. I have a funny hunch that the members of the commission would have loved to have felt free to identify the obvious true cause of the crisis. Stocks were overpriced by $12 trillion in 2000. Even John Bogle, the King of Buy-and-Hold, acknowledges that stock prices always return to fair-value levels after the passage of 10 years or so. Bogle calls this an “Iron Law” of stock investing. So everyone paying attention knew in 2000 that roughly $12 trillion of consumer buying power would be disappearing from our economy by sometime near the end of the first decade of the 21st Century. There’s your economic crisis! The members of the economic crisis commission would love to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing. We should let them.

9) Rajiv Sethie, a Professor of Economics at Columbia University, said of my work: “Rob Bennett makes the claim that market timing based on aggregate PE ratios can be a far more effective strategy. I can see how it could be true.” Rajiv would love to do the research proving it to be so and to win the Nobel prize that would follow from doing so. If he weren’t aware of what was done to Wade Pfau when he did this and what has happened to numerous others in this field who have dared to speak honestly about what the last 30 years of academic research shows us, Rahiv would have done that research a long time ago. If he hadn’t, hundreds of other fine academic researchers would have jumped at the chance to win that Nobel prize. Rajiv and hundreds of other fine academic researchers would love to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing We should let them.

10) The first two words in the February 2005 e-mail sent to me by Dallas Morning News Columnist Scott Burns in response to my e-mail pointing out the errors in the Old School SWR studies were: “You’re right!” Scott asked me in that e-mail for my telephone number so that he could interview me in preparation for an article letting his readers know of the dangers of following the Old School studies. He thought better of it. Scott later wrote an article pointing out that “some people” believe that the Old School studies are analytically invalid. But he was careful not to let his readers know of his personal viewpoint that these criticism are on the mark. And he was careful not to mention the name of the person who pointed out the errors in the studies to him. And he was careful not to include a link to my Retirement Risk Evaluator calculator (which reports the SWR numbers accurately) in his article. And he was careful to put forward numerous defamatory comments about me to keep himself in the favor of the Lindauerheads and the Greaney Goons. Scott would love to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing. We should let him.

We all want to feel free to tell the truth about stock investing. Why wouldn’t we? We all benefit from knowing how stock investing works. And we can only understand things that we feel free to discuss. Permitting honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and many other critically important investment-related topics is a win/win/win/win/win.

So why don’t we do it?

We don’t like to have death threats directed at us. We don’t like to have tens of thousands of acts of defamation directed at us. We don’t like to be banned from the internet sites we frequent. We don’t like to have internet Goons sending defamatory e-mails to our employers in efforts to get us fired from our jobs.

Once even a small number of influential people speak out in opposition to the Campaign of Terror, it’s all over. Buy-and-Hold is no more at that point. Valuation-Informed Indexing is the new dominant model at that point.

The Tipping Point is one price crash away. It is the next price crash that will change things in a way that will permit us to to begin work on bringing about the greatest period of economic growth ever seen in U.S. history. There is a reason why it’s darkest before the dawn. It often takes a whole big bunch of darkness to help the humans work up the courage to do what deep in their hearts they knew for many years very much needed to be done.