Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“I wouldn’t put yo Goons in the same class as Bogle or Shiller”
Would you put yourself in the same category as Bogle and Shiller?
Perhaps you would put yourself at a level above them?
I would put myself in the same class as Bogle and Shiller.
Bogle laid the foundation. Bogle got everything but valuations right (according to the peer-reviewed research available to us today).
Shiller supplied the missing piece of the puzzle, the biggest piece of the puzzle, valuations. The peer-reviewed research shows that the effect of valuations is 80 percent of the stock investing story. Getting everything but valuations right is getting the entire story 80 percent wrong. In a numbers-based model (both Buy-and-Hold and Valuation-Informed Indexing are numbers-based models), getting the story 80 percent wrong is a catastrophe. When you get the numbers wildly wrong, a numbers-based model offers objective support for doing the wrong thing, which is the OPPOSITE of what sound investing advice does.
I have spent the past 14 years exposing the 35-year cover-up and exploring the practical aspects of the Shiller model, a side of the story that he has been afraid to address because he has seen what Goons like you do to anyone who writes about the implications of his “revolutionary” (Shiller’s word) findings with full and complete and plain and helpful honesty.
Just to say “valuations matter” is not quite a revolutionary advance. It suggests a revolutionary advance. But, for that advance to have effect in the flesh-and-blood world, someone needs to create the sorts of calculators that I have presented at this site and to produce the sorts of insights that I have been offering at the column at the Value Walk site for over six years now. Shiller did not do any of that. He generated the hugely important research-based finding and then stepped back, waiting for someone else to come along and see where that hugely important research-based finding would take us. I saw that opportunity in August 2002, when Greaney advanced his first death threat (abusive behavior of that nature had been blocking progress for 21 years at that time) and picked up the ball and ran with it.
We couldn’t have gotten to where we all deep in our hearts want to be without Jack Bogle’s many contributions, we couldn’t have gotten to where we all deep in our hearts want to be without Robert Shiller’s many contributions, and we couldn’t have gotten to where we all deep in our hearts want to be without Rob Bennett’s many contributions.
That’s my sincere take re this terribly important matter in any event, Anonymous. I hope that helps a bit.