Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Yes, I get that you are now 100% fixated on punishing me, rather than pursuing your own goals. If Wade’s paper gets written up in the New York Times, he gets all the glory and rewards. The first step is getting recognized experts like Bengen to acknowledge that he was the first. And that step is checked off.
Of course, Wade could wave his hands and say “Shucks no, all this glory belongs to Rob Bennett. He’s the real brains behind any CAPE-based timing strategy.” Yes, that’s the ticket. That’s what will happen.
Or you could take two minutes right now to set Bengen straight. Nope, you said that’s not an option.
Anytime that anyone writes honestly about what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us all about how stock investing works, it benefits each and every one of us who is trying to do the same. There is no limit on the credit that can be handed out. Millions of investors need access to accurate information. Thousands of investment advisers want to give it to them. The thing that is standing in their way is a Wall of Ignorance. People cannot believe the realities — that we now know of a way to invest in stocks that is far less risky and that allows people to retire far earlier in life — because they just sound too good to be true. Anyone who does anything to knock down that wall is helping all of us in a big way.
Say that Wade does as you say. I am not saying that I think he would — I do not. But just say for purposes of discussion that he did. That would be an absolute boon for me. If the study that Wade and I prepared gets publicized — regardless of who gets the credit for it — it instantly becomes easier to tell the truth about stock investing at hundreds of different sites. So all of my stuff — I’ve developed a lot of it over the years — gets out. How does that hurt me?
You always talk as if the key to getting credit is being smarter than other people. That’s not the reality here. Most Buy-and-Holders possess more than enough intellectual capacity to do everything that I have done. So why am I 15 years ahead of most Buy-and-Holders? They are not willing to stand up to the crowd. So they play dumb. It’s not that they ARE dumb, it’s that they play dumb because they want to be popular at a time when the key to being popular is encouraging people’s Buy-and-Hold fantasies. I haven’t been playing dumb for 15 years now. So I have a mountain of material with my name on it that is real and research-based. Anything that helps me get that material out — and anything that breaks down the Wall of Ignorance does that — helps me.
I cannot lose, Anonymous. I placed myself on the side of the American people. The only way that I lose is if the American people lose. And, if the American people lose, we all go down. Getting credit for my investing ideas will be the least of my concerns in that event. I lose if the entire economic system goes down. I have taken a bet that we are going to pull through this thing. But, if we pull through, there is no way that I can lose. I have too much material. It is too good (not because I am so smart, because Shiller really did achieve something “revolutionary” in scope and I devoted 15 years of my life to mining the insights that he opened to us all). I am going to get all the credit that I could possibly want presuming that the entire economic system does not collapse, which is the one real risk that I am facing. But of course that one gets all of us if a black card comes up.
I don’t have any concerns at all about who gets credit. Do you know who is going to get credit after the New York Times story comes out? You Goons! You Goons have helped me lots of times, dozens of times. I am going to tell that story. I think it is a very cool reality that Shiller’s work is so amazing that even the sworn enemies of the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research cannot help but bring out points in connection with it that help us all. That’s amazing. You Goons don’t want to help. But the reality is that you have. On numerous occasions. And there is no reason in the world why I should be reluctant to give you credit for the good that you have done. When you do good, you help people understand how stock investing works. When you help people understand how stock investing works, you help people see the value of my work. You have helped me. I am grateful to you. I am happy to give you credit. So be it, you know?
I have taken a bet on the future of this country. I love this country. I think we are going to pull through. If we do, I make out like a bandit. Good for me, you know? That’s how it is supposed to go in this country. People help us all out and they are rewarded for it. That’s the wonderful system. That’s what keeps the wheels spinning in a forward direction. I love the way it works and I love being a part of all the magic in this particular case. You can’t beat the feeling. It’s a thrill. Doing well by doing good.
Wade is going to get a mountain of credit on the other side. He deserves it. I think it will be fantastic to see him get the credit he deserves. And Shiller is going to get lots of credit. And Kitces. And Bogle. And Bernstein. And Swedroe. And you Goons. There is going to be credit coming out of our ears.
No worries.
Except for the deepening of the economic crisis and the possible Second Great Depression. I don’t want to come off as glib re that aspect of the question. That one truly worries me. All the credit in the world won’t help me if our economic system collapses. So I want to do everything in my power to help us out re that one. But of course there is only so much I can do in that department and I have been working that one hard for a long, long time now.
But no worries whatsoever re the credit thing. We all are going to do just fine re that particular matter. I am 100 percent sure.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
Anonymous says
“I don’t have any concerns at all about who gets credit. ”
Let’s explore this again. What if Wade get his paper on the front page of The New York Times, yet no one ever hears about you or you VII strategyand life goes on just as it has for the last couple of decades. Are you saying you are okay with that?
Rob says
Anything that teaches people how investing works helps me. That’s what I am saying.
If Wade gets named on the front page of the New York Times and I do not, the ideas that I advocate are being more widely promoted. That helps me.
I advocate telling people what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research teach us. Anyone who tells people what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research says is helping me.
Valuation-Informed Indexing is the future. I am on the right side of the history train. There is no way that things can fail to swing in my direction over time unless the entire economic system goes down, in which case none of it matters anyway.
Rob
Anonymous says
“If Wade gets named on the front page of the New York Times and I do not, the ideas that I advocate are being more widely promoted. That helps me.”
It might help you feel better. It doesn’t get you any attention, therefore it doesn’t help you monetarily. You careen back and forth. Sometimes you say it doesn’t matter if you ever make a dime. Sometimes you insist you’ve earned $500 million, and the payday is right around the corner. Which is it?
Rob says
If the ideas get attention, then I will get attention because I have 16 years of work with my name on it rooted in a belief in the ideas. There are millions of people who want to hear about those ideas today but who need to hear other people talking about them to have confidence in them. If other people talking about them are featured on the front page of the New York Times, that helps me.
I obviously prefer seeing money coming in to not seeing money coming in. I’ve certainly earned well in excess of $500 million, that is just a suggested settlement number that I put forward with the aim of putting all of the ugly side of this behind us. Is my payday right around the corner? The research shows that we should be seeing the next crash sometime within the next year or two or three. Is that right around the corner in your assessment?
The money thing is insignificant compared to the economic crisis thing. I would do this work for nothing if that’s what it took to keep the economic crisis from turning into a Second Great Depression. I am happy to make the $500 million plus. There are tons of cool things that I can do with that much money. But I certainly don’t see that as my primary motivation. I am not even sure that I see it as my secondary motivation. I find it very exciting to learn all the new things that I learn when people feel safe enough to do honest work in this field. So the intellectual challenge might be my secondary motivation. But money is important. I need to provide for my family. I have done the work to earn the money so it sure seems like I should collect it. And it provides a good example for others when I collect the $500 million. When that get written up in the papers, we are going to see thousands of other bloggers writing about this stuff. That helps all of us. So I certainly like setting a good example for how doing honest work in this field can pay off big time. I certainly like collecting the money for that reason. And I certainly intend to bring legal actions to insure that I collect the money (but I am happy to settle for $500 million so long as that full amount is paid prior to the onset of the next crash).
Does that help?
It’s not me who brings up the money. It’s always you who brings up the money. You bring up the money because you want to use it as an intimidation tactic. You want to make it so that no one who points out the dangers of Buy-and-Hold can make money with the thought that that will keep people quiet about the dangers of Buy-and-Hold. I want to take it in the opposite direction. The way that I see it is that the massive act of financial fraud has kept lots of good and smart people from pointing out the dangers of Buy-and-Hold in clear and bold and easy-to-understand terms and so there is less competition for those of us who go ahead and post honestly and thus there is a bigger financial reward for us for doing so. I wouldn’t be collecting the $500 million if you Goons had been permitting honest posting all along because there would be lots of people saying what I say. I want people to see the opportunities that exist here to make tons of money by being one of the first to speak honestly about what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research says.
That’s how our system works. There SHOULD be huge financial rewards for those who take on your Goons. Millions of people benefit when individuals work up the courage to call you out on your b.s. So as a society we should be granting huge financial rewards to those who take on the abuse that follows when one does so. Good for our system, you know? Financial fraud hurts all of us. That’s why we made it a felony. Why not grant huge financial rewards to those who work up the courage to EXPOSE financial fraud? It sure seems like a good way to proceed to me.
Does all of that not make perfect sense? I am in the process of EXPOSING you Goons and getting you sent to prison. So I will be making a fortune for the good that I am doing for millions of middle-class people. But that is not my primary motivation for doing what I do. My primary motivation is that I love my country and don’t want to see its economic system collapse. I want to see my country do well. For my country to do well, we need to overcome you Goons and find a way to provide access to discussions of the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research to all of the millions of middle-class people who want and need it.
My best wishes.
Multi-Millionaire Rob
Anonymous says
“I find it very exciting to learn all the new things that I learn when people feel safe enough to do honest work in this field.”
Good, then you should find this exciting: http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/increasing-retirement-withdrawal-rates-through-asset-allocation.touch
An article by Wade and Michael Kitces talking about CAPE in regards to SWR. Far more recent than the misnamed Bennett-Pfau research, therefore they are far more likely to appear in the NY Times. The fact that you’ve been babbling the same words about the same topic for 16 years means nothing more than you have OCD.
Rob says
Thanks for the link, Anonymous.
It is certainly a positive to have Wade and Michael sharing their thoughts on the matters addressed in the article. But we need to hear them sharing their thoughts on ALL aspects of the question. And we need to see how they respond to CHALLENGES to their beliefs. And we need LOTS OF OTHERS sharing their thoughts on all aspects of the question and responding to challenges to their beliefs.
In short, we need to open every investing site on the internet to 100 percent honest posting re safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics. Zero death threats. Zero demands of unjustified board bannings. Zero acts of defamation. Zero threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.
We need to get back on the right side of the felony line. We need to make everyone who works in this field feel 100 percent confident that he or she will never experience any penalty for posting with 100 percent honesty re the amazing. revolutionary research findings of the past 37 years.
My sincere take.
And my sincere best wishes to you and yours.
Rob