Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Is Bengen, Kitces or a Pfau holding you back from posting in their comments section? Have they made death threats or job threats? What is holding you back from having this conversation with them that you seem to desperately want?
I’ve had conversations with all three of them, Anonymous. Some of those conversations were highly productive. I have reported on many of them at the blog here.
I certainly don’t rule out having additional conversations with them. I expect that I will. Certainly in the days following the next crash. And probably at times in the days prior to the crash.
But there is only so far that we can go until the story has been written up on the front page of the New York Times. People are afraid to have their careers destroyed. People are afraid to have you Goons come after them. People feel funny about noting that the biggest names in the field are involved in a massive act of financial fraud. The ordinary thing is to seek the support of the biggest names in the field because those people can help one advance one’s own career. We are in a weird situation where the biggest names in the field are involved in a massive act of financial fraud. No?
It’s all going to come out in time. Can it come out now? That’s the question. If there is something that I can say that will help get us all to a better place, I obviously want to say that thing. But I have said a lot of things at a lot of places already. I think it might be more helpful if some others got involved.
Are you willing to come out with a clear statement in OPPOSITION to the massive act of financial fraud? That would help.
Rob
Rob,
How about a wager? I bet that on 5 years from, you will still be in the same position. You will still be making the same posts, as always. There won’t be any jury trials, settlement payments, etc. you will still be banned from the same boards for the same misbehavior. In short, other than you getting older, your situation will remain the same. Care to take me up on a bet?
Haven’t I already placed a pretty big bet on the other side of this one? I am highly confident that you are wrong. But it seems to me that I am already highly invested on the side of the people of the United States re this matter. I’m not looking for ways to double down.
Prudent Rob
“Haven’t I already placed a pretty big bet on the other side of this one? ”
And how has your bet worked out for you so far? Have those checks been rolling in?
The checks have not been rolling in. But I have developed an asset with a value far in excess of $500 million in the event that stocks continue to perform in the future anything at all as they always have in the past. That ain’t bad for 16 years of work effort, Anonymous.
You wouldn’t have turned that opportunity down if you had been able to see it at the time I saw it. Why should I throw it away when I am so close to cashing in (while also a world of good for millions of middle-class people)?
You go as far as it is possible to go in taking a short-term perspective and I go as far as it is possible to go in taking a long-term perspective. That’s why it is so hard for us to communicate with each other. We come at these things from very different perspectives.
Lottery Winner Rob
“The checks have not been rolling in. But I have developed an asset with a value far in excess of $500 million in the event that stocks continue to perform in the future anything at all as they always have in the past. That ain’t bad for 16 years of work effort, Anonymous.”
Value is not what you think it is worth. It actually has a value of $0, because no one is willing to pay you anything for it. I am willing to give anything a shot for a period of time (1-3 years). But spending 16 years of my time with $0 earnings is beyond any level of reason.
The members of the committee that awarded Shiller his Nobel prize saw considerable value in his research, Anonymous.
And the policymakers who made financial fraud a crime punishable by imprisonment were making a very different sort of statement.
I’d rather be the one saying that discussion of the Nobel-prize-winning research should be permitted on the internet than on the side hoping that this massive act of financial fraud will not be prosecuted even after a price crash that robs millions of their hope of hope of being able to retire someday.’
I don’t think that I should have had to give up 16 hours of my time to see recognition of my right to post honestly re the past 37 years of peer-reviewed research much less 16 years of it. But I don’t control the entire world any more than anyone else does. We all have to play the cards that we are dealt. The only option that I have ever been offered is to post dishonestly myself. And, no, the felony line is not a line that I will ever cross or even ever think about crossing.
We will see how it all plays out in the days following the next price crash.
I wish you the best of luck with it. That’s as far as I am able to go and still live with myself.
That deal will always be available to you. But the deal you are seeking today will never be available to you.
My best wishes.
Rob
“The members of the committee that awarded Shiller his Nobel prize saw considerable value in his research, Anonymous.”
You are proving my point. People see value in what Shiller is doing and he is paid for that. Note he continues to guide people to stay invested in stock.
People do not assign value to what you are saying. They also don’t buy your crap about fraud, goons, prison, etc. that is why you are sitting here with nothing to show for the past 16 years.
Thousands of people have stated publicly that they see value in the work that I have done. If you had not been impressed and threatened by their statements, you never would have advanced a single death threat or a single demand for a single unjustified board banning or a single act of defamation or a single threat to get a single academic research fired from a single job.
I’ll take my chances with what comes from remaining on the right side of the felony line.
I do wish you all good things, however.
Rob
“Thousands of people have stated publicly that they see value in the work that I have done.”
a) That’s a lie, and b) even if it wasn’t a lie, so what? Talk is cheap. Show me the money.
Bernie Madoff made a mountain of money.
Then he was sent to prison.
Not this boy.
My best wishes.
Rob
Well then, if your plan is to make no money so you can stay out of prison, mission accomplished. That plan has worked spectacularly well.
Staying out of prison puts me 500 miles ahead of you Goons, Anonymous.
We’ll see how the rest plays out in the days following the next price crash.
I don’t expect the Bennett family to be experiencing any money concerns for many generations from that point forward.
But I could be wrong. It has been known to happen.
We are just going to have to wait and see.
I hope that works for you.
Rob
I am willing to give anything a shot for a period of time (1-3 years). But spending 16 years of my time with $0 earnings is beyond any level of reason.
I was rereading yesterday’s posts this morning and I saw this one and I thought that I should make a point that I did not bring out in my original response.
In an objective sense I agree with this point. If you described to me some hypothetical scenario where a fellow waited for 16 years for things to turn around re some matter, I would be inclined to agree with what you are saying here, Anonymous. I would say “maybe waiting one year for a turn-around makes sense, perhaps two years, three years is pushing it. Not 16 freakin’ years!” So I get the point.
I sometimes ask myself: “If you knew how things were going to play out, would you have put forward that famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002?” Given the positive stuff we have seen over the past 16 years, the answer is obviously “yes, a thousand times yes!” There’s been a mountain of amazingly positive stuff. But given the negative stuff and given that the positive stuff has not to this day generated any cold hard cash for the Bennett family, an argument can be made that the negative stuff outweighs the positive stuff. The positive stuff outweighs the negative stuff when you take a global perspective — the advance that we all achieve with the shift from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing permits us all to live far richer (in ever sense of the word) lives. But we all live our lives in the personal cold-hard-cash realm, not in the all-you-need-is-love global society-wide realm. As you note, the penalties that I have faced in the personal realm for my “crime” of posting honestly re safe withdrawal rates have been pretty darn severe. So has it really been worth it? Can I really make that claim with a confident, calm feeling?
There’s a reason why I often use the catch-phrase “I love my country — that’s the bottom line here.” There’s a motto they use in the marines — God, Country, Family. I don’t consider myself a particularly brave person. If I were asked to risk my life in a military battle, I would be afraid. I like to think that I would overcome my fears and do my duty. But I know I would be afraid. That’s the way I was made. I don’t see how it benefits me or anyone else for me to lie about that.
I have more courage to fight battle in the intellectual/emotional realm where these investing strategy battles have been fought. I have taken lots of hits standing up to you Buy-and-Holders. Lots and lots and lots of hits. And I have been a little bit afraid at times. But not nearly as afraid as I would have been were the battles being fought in the physical realm. I possess a lot more courage in the intellectual and emotional realms. I believe in God. I believe that things happen to us in this life for a reason. I believe that I was placed in circumstances in which my courage would be tested in realms in which I am capable of standing up to the test because God knows that I at least potentially possess what it takes to pass the tests in those realms.
When a man dies for his country as a soldier on the battlefield, no one says “oh, he is a fool, he gave up too much, he hurt his family.” People praise the fellow, they say he is a hero. God presented me with this other way of demonstrating my love for my country. He said: “Oh, you flatter yourself that you love your country and you are willing to make sacrifices for it, let’s see you stand up to these internet Goons, let’s see whether you mean what you say when you encourage your boys to be real men or whether you are just a hypocrite pumping out more hot air.” God (Evolution/Life/Fate/Circumstances/Whatever) placed me in a position where I could help millions of people by putting myself and my family through some temporary (16 years!) strain or where I could just decide that there is no reason why I should stick my neck out anymore than my heroes Jack Bogle and Robert Shiller have stuck theirs out and let our economic system go down because there was no one brave enough to stand up to the relentless hate of the Lindauerheads and the Greaney Goons.
I stood in the line of fire. I never flinched. I am proud of it. No apologies.
God will judge me when I die. That’s what I believe. I believe in my heart that I have passed the test. But I don’t want to be presumptive about it. I still ask myself the question every day. I still pray that, if I have gotten something wrong somewhere that God gives me the grace to see it and fix it before too much more time passes through the hourglass. But I sincerely believe that I have DEMONSTRATED my love for my country (and for my family too — my boys are going to have to live in the economic system that we are all creating with our actions today) with unwillingness to post dishonestly re the numbers that many of my friends are using to plan their retirements. I don’t just express my love for my country with words. I was there with my honest posts when it became clear to me that some honest posts were needed if this economic and political system of ours is going to continue to work in the future as well as it has worked in the past.
God help me, you know? It’s a big responsibility. It’s scary to be a human. We all have consciences. We know with a good bit of confidence what is right. But we don’t get to see the last page of the story in advance. So it’s always a little bit scary making the best of things with our limited brains and our limited understanding as each stage of the process plays out before us. God protect me. God give me guidance. God give me strength.
God help us all. God help you Goons. You Goons have that human thing going on somewhere deep inside no matter how much you endeavor to cover it up. Or so Rob Bennett sincerely believes, you know?
Take good care, my dear Goon friend. There’s a better place on the other side of The Big Black Mountain. Or so I heard in a story once. That sounded to me to be more or less on the mark.
Yowsa!
Rob
“I sometimes ask myself: “If you knew how things were going to play out, would you have put forward that famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002?” Given the positive stuff we have seen over the past 16 years, the answer is obviously “yes, a thousand times yes!” ”
There is the problem, Rob. You have convinced yourself that there is positive stuff, but it just isn’t true. In any situation, you need to step back and try to pull away from your own biases and take an objective view. Your situation is not unique. We see that people have passions for their businesses and keep dumping money into it, hoping that someday it will work out, yet it doesn’t. We see people move to California in hopes of making it big as an actor/actress thinking that they have what it takes, yet they never make it. Or take the countless kids that think they will be a big NFL/NBA or MLB player and spend years chasing the dream, yet it doesn’t come through. At some point, you have to sit back and look at all the time you have invested and use that as an objective barometer to know that your future results are likely to lead to the same disappointments.
I am sure you think your situation is different. Those other people also think the same thing. We can look at others and see the obvious and know that things are not going to change for them, yet somehow we all think we are different and that it will all work for us even though it didn’t work for others.
Sure, you can go ask a few people if they think you are correct and that will also tell you to keep on pursuing your dream. The only problem is that they are just telling you what you want to hear. That is why it is best just to look at the black and white results, which in this case is dollars and cents. As you have admitted, this point of measure has not worked out for you.
You can decide to call me a goon or come up with more of your canned sayings to just write these comments off just like the rest. The fact is that it doesn’t really impact the rest of us at all. The only one hurt will be you if you decide to ignore this post just like you have done with the rest.
People have been trying to help you for years. Unfortunately, you don’t see it as help. If you are not willing to take it, no one can make you. It is all your choice, just like the rest of us make our own choices.
I hoping at some point you decide to really help yourself and your family.
Okay, Anonymous.
I do wish you all good things, in any event.
Rob
“Okay, Anonymous.
I do wish you all good things, in any event.
Rob”
Translation: In one ear and out the other.
It would be fair to say that I am not persuaded.
When different people holding different views express them clearly and strongly and respectfully and without apology, great learning experiences often result.
Wish us luck!
Rob
“When different people holding different views express them clearly and strongly and respectfully and without apology, great learning experiences often result.”
Except when those views don’t agree with your views and then it is ignored or blocked.
Bad to the bone. That’s what they say.
Take care, man.
Dogmatic Rob
“It would be fair to say that I am not persuaded.”
By anything. Or anybody. Ever.
Which is exactly why the first comment in this thread is right on. You will be saying the exact same things, in the exact same place (only here), with the exact same lack of progress, for as many years to come as those wrinkled old fingers will allow.
Any normal person would find that thought depressing, to say the least.
I was persuaded when I heard Bogle say that it’s a good idea to use the peer-reviewed research as a guide to how to invest in stocks.
True Boglehead Rob
“I was persuaded when I heard Bogle say that it’s a good idea to use the peer-reviewed research as a guide to how to invest in stocks.”
Maybe someday you will learn what that means and not just your interpretation.
Maybe someday you will learn what that means and not just your interpretation.
Someone told me that there was a footnote that said it’s only the pre-1981 research that matters.
I need to remember to always check the footnotes before shooting off my big mouth!
Stand-Up Rob
“Someone told me that there was a footnote that said it’s only the pre-1981 research that matters.”
Someone should have told you that you can’t make the research fit your narrative and that it needs to stand on its own.
My narrative follows from the research that Shiller published in 1981 showing that valuations affect long-term returns.
The Buy-and-Hold narrative follows from the research that Fama published in 1965 that was widely thought to show that the market is efficient.
If the market really was efficient, Buy-and-Hold would be the ideal strategy. But the market cannot be efficient if valuations affect long-term returns. If the market were efficient, returns would play out in the form of a random walk.
Both narratives are research-based. But Shiller’s research DISCREDITED Fama’s research (at least the claims that long-term timing isn’t required; it didn’t discredit the important finding that short-term timing doesn’t work).
Everyone is following a research-based narrative. The difference is that the Valuation-Informed Indexers take into consideration both the pre-1981 research and the post-1981 research while the Buy-and-Holders take into consideration only the pre-1981 research and ignore the 37 years of peer-reviewed research that discredits their narrative.
Rob
“My narrative follows from the research that Shiller published in 1981 showing that valuations affect long-term returns.”
No it doesn’t. You keep telling us what you think Shiller should say. You read into things that aren’t there.
Shiller’s research shows that valuations affect long-term returns.
He obviously needs to hear that you Goons have been placed in prison cells before he is going to feel safe talking openly about what that research implies. We all need that. We live in a country of laws. The laws against financial fraud are good and necessary laws. We all need to see those laws enforced.
But our failure to prosecute does not change what Shiller’s research says. His research says that valuations affect long-term returns.
My sincere take.
And my best wishes.
Rob
“He obviously needs to hear that you Goons have been placed in prison cells before he is going to feel safe talking openly about what that research implies. We all need that. We live in a country of laws. The laws against financial fraud are good and necessary laws. We all need to see those laws enforced.”
And there proves my point. Shiller is not saying what you want him to say. To try and spin a story, you invented a story about fraud, prison, etc. as you have admitted, there is not a single person alive that will support any of your claims.
Shiller was awarded a Nobel prize for showing that valuations affect long-term returns. If that is so, then there is zero chance that the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies (which do not include valuation adjustments) could get the numbers anything close to right.
No, Shiller doesn’t talk openly about all the how-to implications that follow from his “revolutionary” (his word) findings. But he would obviously be 100 percent happy to do so if he were assured that it is safe to do so. Every person on the planet should want Shiller to feel safe to post honestly and for everyone else in this field to feel safe to post honestly. I am going to continue to work to make that happen.
I will do anything in my power to get your prison sentence reduced a bit. But I won’t say that Greaney’s study contains a valuations adjustment and I won’t deny that there is 37 years of peer-reviewed research showing that valuations affect long-term returns.
I wish you all good things. But I don’t do felonies. I don’t even consider going there. Not for 15 seconds. Not in 16 years. Not in 16 billion years.
It will be interesting to see how things play out in the days following the next price crash. I have a funny feeling that I know how it will go. But it will be interesting to find out for sure.
My best wishes.
Rob
“No, Shiller doesn’t talk openly about all the how-to implications that follow from his “revolutionary” (his word) findings. But he would obviously be 100 percent happy to do so if he were assured that it is safe to do so. Every person on the planet should want Shiller to feel safe to post honestly and for everyone else in this field to feel safe to post honestly. I am going to continue to work to make that happen.
I will do anything in my power to get your prison sentence reduced a bit. But I won’t say that Greaney’s study contains a valuations adjustment and I won’t deny that there is 37 years of peer-reviewed research showing that valuations affect long-term returns.”
Again, it is just you saying this. We can all make up stuff, but it doesn’t make it true.
Are you okay with seeing how it all plays out in the days following the next price crash?
Honest Rob
“Are you okay with seeing how it all plays out in the days following the next price crash?”
You have been saying that year after year. We have seen plenty of things play out, showing you to be wrong time after time. Sorry, but we have had to secure our retirements and not interested in living in a fairytale.
Okay, Anonymous.
Please take good care.
Rob