I’ve posted Podcast #177 to the “RobCasts” section of the site. It’s called All About Backtesting.
Backtesting is good because it is a way of testing an investing theory emperically. Backtesting is bad because those who employ cherrypicking of results can use it to argue for fanciful correlations. Both things are so. We cannot learn about investing without making use of backtesting but we need to be wary of its dangers.
Evidence Based Investing says
Regarding Today’s Passion: “Oh No! Origins of the Efficient Market Theory Traced Back to 1565!”
The time line only goes to 2008.
A possible addition for this year.
2009 Rob Bennett (hocus) still does not understand the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Rob says
The time line only goes to 2008.
That’s no true of the page that my computer takes me to when I click on the link provided, Evidence.
2009 Rob Bennett (hocus) still does not understand the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Har de har hard, Evidence.
I understand the misery it has caused million of middle-class investors, Evidence. I think it would be fair to say that that puts me one step ahead of a good number of the Passive Investing dogmatics.
For the benefit of those who see these words after the entry to the Today’s Passion feature changes, here is the link under discussion:
http://www.e-m-h.org/emh-history.pdf
Rob
Rob says
I’m sorry, Evidence.
I now see that what you meant by “the timeline only goes to 2008” is that it only goes forward that far. So the entire point of your post was the Rob Bennett thing.
You’ve got Rob Bennett on the brain, my friend. What Rob Bennett believes or doesn’t believe doesn’t matter. He’s some guy who posts stuff on the internet.
Whether Buy-and-Hold Investing works or not matters a lot. I would like to see your focus placed where it can do us all some good.
Rob Bennett is not the only one questioning whether Buy-and-Hold Investing works or not. Not by a long shot. I’ve got an article coming out next Tuesday that will provide 20 links where lots of people a lot smarter than Rob Bennett point out the failure of Buy-and-Hold.
Study the arguments, Evidence. Forget about what names are behind them. You need to focus on what matters for your hopes of becoming a successful long-term investor.
My sincere take.
Rob
Hello World says
Awesome, I can’t wait for 20 links!!!!!!
Rob says
I can’t wait for 20 links!!!!!!
It’s better than 20 lashes. I think that much is fair to say.
Rob