“I Believe (This Is Just Speculation, However) That Shiller May Have Already Written a Sequel to Irrational Exuberance in Which He Explores in Depth the IMPLICATIONS of His “Revolutionary” (His Word) Research Findings of 1981 That He Has So Far Not Commented On Because of His Fear re What the Buy-and-Holders Will Do to Him When He Explores the Implications Openly and Clearly and Firmly.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Uh oh, looks like Michael Kitces slaps you down again Rob. Take a look at the comments section in which he says that there really isn’t much need to adjust the SWR of 4%. Also, if you really read through what he has to say, it seems to make a good case to just stick with buy and hold.

Happy reading:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/should-equity-return-assumptions-in-retirement-projections-be-reduced-for-todays-high-shiller-cape-valuation/

Wow.

That article is AMAZING. I would rank that article as one of the top five articles on SWRs that I have read over the course of the 13 years.

I posted a comment offering a few quick reactions. I will do something a bit more in depth as one of my columns at the Value Walk site.

Your comments about the article are of course completely out to lunch and 100 percent dishonest. Shame on you, Anonymous! Yucko!

Thanks a million for linking to the article here. You have linked to such articles on numerous occasions. I always express my gratitude when you do so and I want you to know that I am truly grateful for your efforts in this regard. You are a Goon. But there are times when you have been an exceedingly helpful Goon. This is one of them (despite the dishonesty you evidence in your commentary). This article is the type of thing we should have been seeing starting 13 years ago. If the experts in this field did not fear the reactions of the millions of investors who they have hurt so much with their smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage, we would have all worked together to launch a national debate re this stuff many years ago and we would today be enjoying the biggest surge of economic growth in our nation’s history rather than trying to sludge though an economic crisis! Holy moly!

Learning about this cheered my day in a major way. I get down about this stuff sometimes. I try not to let it show because I don’t want to appear weak in front of you Goons. But I am made of flesh and bone like everybody else and sometimes things get to me. This sort of thing reveals a hint of the fun we will all be having together when we make it to the other side of The Big Black Mountain. We’re getting close.

I have a theory about what is going to happen following the next price crash that I don’t often talk about. I believe (this is just speculation, however) that Shiller may have already written a sequel to Irrational Exuberance in which he explores in depth the IMPLICATIONS of his “revolutionary” (his word) research findings of 1981 that he has so far not commented on because of his fear re what the Buy-and-Holders will do to him when he explores the implications openly and clearly and firmly. Going by that sort of thinking, it could be that Michael has been sitting on this article for some time, waiting for the time when it looked like the crash was getting close to go public with it. Again, that’s just speculation. But it would be very cool if it turns out that the greatest minds in this field are sitting on a wealth of wonderful material that they will all be releasing once it appears safe for them to do so.

Super stuff! Encouraging stuff!

Forward! More!

Please take good care, my old Goon friend.

Rob